Julian Assange? Who's that?

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thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

It's arguably just as silly believing everything as it is to believe nothing. There's a sort of spectrum with total naivety at one end and paranoia at the other. I suppose we all like to believe we have just the right measure of healthy scepticism.

(I've had a knock at the door but it was just the window cleaner. More often than not it's somebody selling something.)
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meic
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by meic »

Often you need a clue about the motive for actions.

With Assange there is a good motive possible on both sides and enough possible gains for both from the actions.

I didnt get Hillsborough right just because I failed to see any motive for the Police to try and cover up over a "natural disaster".
I probably would have dismissed Special Branch infiltration of activists movements as "conspiracy theory"stuff but I was near enough to see the evidence for myself, rather than having it filtered through the media. If they were willing to go to such illegal lengths over a group of pacifist tree-huggers, you can easily see how they would scale up for more important threats to the power base. Though I reckon the activist movements were more about being a safe training camp for the secret police than being taken too seriously as a threat to the establishment.
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bovlomov
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by bovlomov »

thirdcrank wrote:It's arguably just as silly believing everything as it is to believe nothing. There's a sort of spectrum with total naivety at one end and paranoia at the other. I suppose we all like to believe we have just the right measure of healthy scepticism.

(I've had a knock at the door but it was just the window cleaner. More often than not it's somebody selling something.)

But we aren't making those judgements in the dark. We have history and experience to help us. They don't tell us exactly what is happening, but they are a useful guide to what is likely.

No one who knew anything about ECHELON should have been surprised by Snowden's revelations. No one with any experience of campaigning would have been entirely surprised by the news that undercover police had fathered children with protesters. And anyone who has read materials published under the 30, 50 or 75 year rules, should suspect that these deceptions didn't cease 30, 50 or 75 years ago, respectively.

The success of governments has been to dismiss all questions as 'conspiracy theories'. So stories about lizard people have the same status as those about mass surveillance. A story about George Bush ordering the Twin Towers to be destroyed has the same status as one about CIA failings. People who deny the Holocaust or the moon landings are in the same category as those who doubted that there were WMDs in Iraq.

(Window cleaner? That's what they want you to think!)
francovendee
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by francovendee »

meic wrote:In criminal law you work to beyond reasonable doubt and innocent until proven guilty. In civil courts you use "balance of probabilities".

From here he walks on either criteria.

If the allegations were freestanding it might be different but considering all the surrounding circumstances, it is likely that if he goes to Sweden, next step will be the USA.

Absolutely correct. Putting aside the charge of rape, I doubt very much if he'd get a fair hearing in the US, unless of course he has bottomless pockets!
thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

I suppose that the sooner this is resolved one way or the other, we'll know. All we know now with any certainty is what started me off with this: he's out of the limelight. Perhaps the cunning plan has been to ignore him, but the big flaw there is he's not gone away.

Not gone, but forgotten.

(With apologies for the canteen humour. :lol: )

IF the Swedish authorities decided stop their enquiries AND IF the US didn't then leap in, there'd be little left but Strictly, Celebrity Big Bro, or something with Ant and Dec. Come to think of it, they could use psamathe's video link suggestion for a special edition of I'm a celebrity, get me ..... but there's no obvious way of getting the bush tucker in. Lizard people claiming diplomatic immunity?
Psamathe
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by Psamathe »

The way I'm thinking these days is that at some point he will need to come out of the Ecuadorian Embassy and assuming that no "diplomatic deal" is established (unlikely after all this time) then he risks being extradited to Sweden or the US. If extradition to the US is planned (under Sealed Indictment) then if he is 1st extradited to Sweden then it will take both the Swedish AND the UK authorities to approve his extradition to the US. If the Swedish extradition request is dropped then it would ONLY be the UK authorities approving his extradition.

So these days, seems that if US extradition is his genuine concern then being extradited to Sweden places more hindrances to a US extradition than waiting for the Swedish extradition request to be dropped. Of course then he would have to face the rape allegations (which I suppose is why I'm now questioning what he is really avoiding more these days).

Ian
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661-Pete
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by 661-Pete »

Psamathe wrote:if he is 1st extradited to Sweden then it will take both the Swedish AND the UK authorities to approve his extradition to the US.
Good point - that had slipped my mind.

One thought occurs to me. This person has voluntarily incarcerated himself in a single building for several years. If he is indeed extradited to Sweden (eventually), if he is charged with serious sexual offences, if he is convicted, he is likely to face a custodial sentence. Would the Swedish authorities, in calculating his term of imprisonment, then take into account the time he has spent in 'custody' in the Ecuador embassy? If so, he could still walk free.

Just a fanciful thought of mine. I may be wildly wrong!
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).
thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

It's hard to imagine the Swedish authorities counting this period as part of any custodial sentence, not least because their response to the UN inquiry was that he wasn't in custody, but of his own choice. OTOH, I expect they have some scheme of mitigation at point of sentencing as we do. I tend to think that if the Swedish system as a whole was tending towards that type of view, there would have been more movement to come to some sort of compromise, although the independent operation of government, prosecutors and courts would go against that. OTOH, if it is the people in the shadows who are calling the shots, anything might happen.

I don't know - because I haven't bothered looking - what view his own government takes of this. Have they made representations on his behalf? :idea: Perhaps he could do a modern version of civis romanus sum Aymer Strine perhaps. Sorry. :oops:
Psamathe
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by Psamathe »

Interesting report today as there are Presidential elections going on in Ecuador
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/09/ecuador-julian-assange-embassy-notice-eviction wrote:Ecuador presidential hopeful promises to evict Julian Assange from embassy

Julian Assange will be given a month’s notice to leave the Ecuadorian embassy if the country’s main opposition candidate wins the presidency in next week’s election.

Which make sone wonder how widespread knowledge of his asylum situation is in Ecuador and how the population feel about it (if an candidate for President is raising it). I have absolutely no idea of the chanced of this guy getting elected (he could be very likely or he could be a real outsider, the Lb Dem of Ecuador - no idea).

Ian
thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

From the linked Guardian article:-

The South American country accepts the WikiLeaks leader’s argument that the Swedish extradition request was a ruse aimed at eventually getting him into US jurisdiction, ...


No mention of the possibility that the socialist government of Ecuador might have seen this as a jolly good wheeze to cock a snook at the US which has gone a bit pear-shaped.

All sorts of possibilities occur to me. eg the Swedish authorities could withdraw the extradition request and an immigration-averse UK govt could withdraw whatever right of entry he has. Then he couldn't come out. :lol:
thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

It looks as though he may have come up trumps. :wink:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39663058
thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

Everybody has lost interest.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39973864

In the meantime he's been in there nearly five years: the equivalent of a ten year sentence with 50% off for good behaviour.
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bovlomov
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by bovlomov »

Perhaps the Swedish prosecutors decided that extraditing him to Trump's America wouldn't be popular.
thirdcrank
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by thirdcrank »

Interesting that this should come so soon after the release of Bradley Manning (as was) now Chelsea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39947602

Total coincidence or further evidence of some opaque plot?
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bovlomov
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Re: Julian Assange? Who's that?

Post by bovlomov »

thirdcrank wrote:Total coincidence or further evidence of some opaque plot?

I prefer the opaque plot theory better, but what's the motive, and (as we say in conspiracy land) "Who benefits"?
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