Indyref2

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irc
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Re: Indyref2

Postby irc » 14 Mar 2017, 9:04pm

Actually no. It is the EU that wants to link free trade with other conditions like freedom of movement etc


Just like the EU won't agree to reciprocal agreements on EU residents in the UK and UK residents in the EU.

fishfright
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Re: Indyref2

Postby fishfright » 14 Mar 2017, 9:25pm

I hope the Scot's get their independence finally. By doing this they may escape the several centuries of pay back heading for the English in our isolated, no friends left, state post Brexit.

Yes but we are the English and everyone loves us really ...... really ? If you're daft enough to believe this you probably voted Brexit.

I was hoping not to live long enough not hear Gibbon mk X sharpening his quill.

Scaremongering ? Nope just historical inevitability. The only issue is the time scale.

mercalia
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Re: Indyref2

Postby mercalia » 14 Mar 2017, 9:46pm

fishfright wrote:I hope the Scot's get their independence finally. By doing this they may escape the several centuries of pay back heading for the English in our isolated, no friends left, state post Brexit.

Yes but we are the English and everyone loves us really ...... really ? If you're daft enough to believe this you probably voted Brexit.

I was hoping not to live long enough not hear Gibbon mk X sharpening his quill.

Scaremongering ? Nope just historical inevitability. The only issue is the time scale.


WOW what did England do to YOU?

Psamathe
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Re: Indyref2

Postby Psamathe » 14 Mar 2017, 10:33pm

irc wrote:Actually no. It is the EU that wants to link free trade with other conditions like freedom of movement etc
...

Not how it is coming across in all the reports (and not denied by any of the politicians)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38641208 wrote:Brexit: UK to leave single market, says Theresa May
...
Theresa May has said the UK "cannot possibly" remain within the European single market, as staying in it would mean "not leaving the EU at all".

So her reasons clearly stated that if we don't leave the Single Market then we are not leaving the EU properly (or so she claims).

But the EU runs a single market and that requires things like Freedom of Movement to ensure that countries do not run protectionist measures through their immigration system. e.g. UK company tenders to build a new hospital and Spanish company wants to bid except the UK lets it be known that it will not grant Spanish engineers visas in ... so Spanish company cannot bid and you don't have any Single Market any more. It's not linking unrelated things but setting up agreements that ensure the Single Market works properly. (We've actually been through all this several pages back).

Similarly with the European Court of Justice
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/13/european-court-will-have-no-influence-britain-brexit-theresa/ wrote:European Court will have no influence over Britain after Brexit, Theresa May to pledge

But t is the ECJ that is the court ruling on matters of EU law so how can we participate in EU laws and regulations when we reject the judicial system to rule on those laws and regulations. Do we expect a seperate court setup just for the UK ? (which I don't think even May has been daft enough to propose).

etc., etc.

irc wrote:....
Just like the EU won't agree to reciprocal agreements on EU residents in the UK and UK residents in the EU.

EU have not been asked. EU has said that they cannot negotiate anything until they are notified under Article 50 - which is absolutely a requirement. The EU cannot start negotiating the UK leaving the EU until they are told that the UK is leaving the EU.

Ian

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al_yrpal
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Re: Indyref2

Postby al_yrpal » 15 Mar 2017, 12:02am

What I don't understand is why the SNP want to continue free trade with the EU where only 15% of their exports go and want to leave the UK and to pay tariffs on trade with the rest of the UK where 60% of their exports currently go and which is currently tariff free?

Doesn't make sense?

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. What do you do to make a difference?

mercalia
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Re: Indyref2

Postby mercalia » 15 Mar 2017, 12:10am

al_yrpal wrote:What I don't understand is why the SNP want to continue free trade with the EU where only 15% of their exports go and want to leave the UK and to pay tariffs on trade with the rest of the UK where 60% of their exports currently go and which is currently tariff free?

Doesn't make sense?

Al


ah you havent understood her - she wants free trade with us also after Brexit :roll:

rualexander
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Re: Indyref2

Postby rualexander » 15 Mar 2017, 12:17am

Its not all about trade and economics.

pwa
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Re: Indyref2

Postby pwa » 15 Mar 2017, 9:38am

The SNP have some difficult choices to make now. About a third of those who favour independence also favour leaving the EU. Closely linking independence to remaining in the EU is a risk.

Psamathe
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Re: Indyref2

Postby Psamathe » 15 Mar 2017, 9:50am

pwa wrote:The SNP have some difficult choices to make now. About a third of those who favour independence also favour leaving the EU. Closely linking independence to remaining in the EU is a risk.

But I suspect for those wishing independence from both the UK and the EU a lot must come down to which they prioritise and exactly what the SNPs plans end-up as (e.g. they might just go for EEA membership). It may be that those favouring independence from both feel stronger about breaking with the UK?

I suspect that through the next couple of years, every time Chairman May opens her mouth to tell the Scots what they must do and what is best for them she will drive more to supporting a Scotland independent from the UK (even for some if that means being close to the EU). But that has to be a guess and there is a long time to go and the arrogance of Westminster can play an important role is deciding how Scotland will chose.

Ian

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al_yrpal
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Re: Indyref2

Postby al_yrpal » 15 Mar 2017, 9:59am

mercalia wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:What I don't understand is why the SNP want to continue free trade with the EU where only 15% of their exports go and want to leave the UK and to pay tariffs on trade with the rest of the UK where 60% of their exports currently go and which is currently tariff free?

Doesn't make sense?

Al


ah you havent understood her - she wants free trade with us also after Brexit :roll:


But...We won't be in the EU and Scotland will face tariff barriers and the Barnet subsidies will be removed leaving Scotland with a massive shortfall for health and welfare to say nothing of the removal of Faslane, shipbuilding, defence bases, government call centres, bank and financial stuff, it doesn't make sense? But hey, I suppose that's nationalism for you. This mornings papers YouGov poll says most Scots don't want another referendum anyway?

Don't recognise any arrogance from Westminster, just messages of how precious the Union is. I see plenty of beligerance from Sturgeon Salmond and Robertson though, not necessary.

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. What do you do to make a difference?

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Re: Indyref2

Postby pwa » 15 Mar 2017, 10:04am

Psamathe wrote:
pwa wrote:The SNP have some difficult choices to make now. About a third of those who favour independence also favour leaving the EU. Closely linking independence to remaining in the EU is a risk.

But I suspect for those wishing independence from both the UK and the EU a lot must come down to which they prioritise and exactly what the SNPs plans end-up as (e.g. they might just go for EEA membership). It may be that those favouring independence from both feel stronger about breaking with the UK?

I suspect that through the next couple of years, every time Chairman May opens her mouth to tell the Scots what they must do and what is best for them she will drive more to supporting a Scotland independent from the UK (even for some if that means being close to the EU). But that has to be a guess and there is a long time to go and the arrogance of Westminster can play an important role is deciding how Scotland will chose.

Ian


I think a Tory PM always goes down badly in Scotland, so I agree that May will find it difficult or impossible to say anything that wins her friends there. But apparently (BBC today) there is evidence that Scots are feeling less pro-EU, so Sturgeon does not have the clear trump card that she might have hoped for.

Psamathe
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Re: Indyref2

Postby Psamathe » 15 Mar 2017, 10:35am

pwa wrote:
Psamathe wrote:
pwa wrote:The SNP have some difficult choices to make now. About a third of those who favour independence also favour leaving the EU. Closely linking independence to remaining in the EU is a risk.

But I suspect for those wishing independence from both the UK and the EU a lot must come down to which they prioritise and exactly what the SNPs plans end-up as (e.g. they might just go for EEA membership). It may be that those favouring independence from both feel stronger about breaking with the UK?

I suspect that through the next couple of years, every time Chairman May opens her mouth to tell the Scots what they must do and what is best for them she will drive more to supporting a Scotland independent from the UK (even for some if that means being close to the EU). But that has to be a guess and there is a long time to go and the arrogance of Westminster can play an important role is deciding how Scotland will chose.

Ian


I think a Tory PM always goes down badly in Scotland, so I agree that May will find it difficult or impossible to say anything that wins her friends there. But apparently (BBC today) there is evidence that Scots are feeling less pro-EU, so Sturgeon does not have the clear trump card that she might have hoped for.

I gets impossible to say because it's very early (campaigning not started, etc.) but poll on TV last night was still saying about 50:50 and I think it will be about far more than just the EU membership. The EU membership stance might gain the independence more than it would lose (e.g. from those who voted independence last time round), the economic arguments for a viable independent Scotland are weaker than last time but SNP can stand-up and replay Cameron's announcement day after last referendum result !

I think at the moment SNP have strengths and weaknesses but they don't need to swing the balance very far and after Trump's election and Brexit vote I wonder if the electorate is now giving greater weight to an emotive case (e.g. "Take Back control") than a practical/factual case (e.g. Oil Price ...).

Some SNP (or Independence supporter/commentator) on TV last night commented that when the previous referendum was help at the point it was called support for independence was below 30% and the SNP grew that support significantly through the campaign.

Ian

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Re: Indyref2

Postby pwa » 15 Mar 2017, 10:50am

Psamathe wrote:
pwa wrote:
Psamathe wrote:But I suspect for those wishing independence from both the UK and the EU a lot must come down to which they prioritise and exactly what the SNPs plans end-up as (e.g. they might just go for EEA membership). It may be that those favouring independence from both feel stronger about breaking with the UK?

I suspect that through the next couple of years, every time Chairman May opens her mouth to tell the Scots what they must do and what is best for them she will drive more to supporting a Scotland independent from the UK (even for some if that means being close to the EU). But that has to be a guess and there is a long time to go and the arrogance of Westminster can play an important role is deciding how Scotland will chose.

Ian


I think a Tory PM always goes down badly in Scotland, so I agree that May will find it difficult or impossible to say anything that wins her friends there. But apparently (BBC today) there is evidence that Scots are feeling less pro-EU, so Sturgeon does not have the clear trump card that she might have hoped for.

I gets impossible to say because it's very early (campaigning not started, etc.) but poll on TV last night was still saying about 50:50 and I think it will be about far more than just the EU membership. The EU membership stance might gain the independence more than it would lose (e.g. from those who voted independence last time round), the economic arguments for a viable independent Scotland are weaker than last time but SNP can stand-up and replay Cameron's announcement day after last referendum result !

I think at the moment SNP have strengths and weaknesses but they don't need to swing the balance very far and after Trump's election and Brexit vote I wonder if the electorate is now giving greater weight to an emotive case (e.g. "Take Back control") than a practical/factual case (e.g. Oil Price ...).

Some SNP (or Independence supporter/commentator) on TV last night commented that when the previous referendum was help at the point it was called support for independence was below 30% and the SNP grew that support significantly through the campaign.

Ian


What happened last time is not much of a guide to what will happen next time. There is some evidence that support for EU membership is declining in Scotland, yet support for independence is up! Confusing.

I'd be surprised if a referendum is held before the UK formally leaves the EU. If it is, it will still be difficult to arrange for Scotland to stay in the EU before Scotland leaves with the UK. My guess is that if Scotland is to be independent and in the EU it will be after re-entering some time after 2019. And then Scotland will be a remote outpost of the EU, beyond the UK. A bit like Eire.

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Re: Indyref2

Postby rualexander » 15 Mar 2017, 10:51am

al_yrpal wrote:......to say nothing of the removal of Faslane, shipbuilding, defence bases, government call centres, bank and financial stuff, it doesn't make sense? But hey, I suppose that's nationalism for you......


Really?
Faslane will still be a naval/defence base but a Scottish one.
No reason shipbuilding can't continue.
The Scottish defence force will still need bases.
The Scottish government will still need call centres.
Banks and financial institutions will still be in Scotland.

pwa
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Re: Indyref2

Postby pwa » 15 Mar 2017, 10:57am

rualexander wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:......to say nothing of the removal of Faslane, shipbuilding, defence bases, government call centres, bank and financial stuff, it doesn't make sense? But hey, I suppose that's nationalism for you......


Really?
Faslane will still be a naval/defence base but a Scottish one.
No reason shipbuilding can't continue.
The Scottish defence force will still need bases.
The Scottish government will still need call centres.
Banks and financial institutions will still be in Scotland.


And speaking as someone who would rather Scotland stayed as part of the UK I have no appetite for punishing Scotland by taking all our toys back. If they vote to leave I would hope that we will be supporting them, not pulling the rug from under their feet.