French presidential election - a third shock?

[Cyril Haearn]

^^^If you're arguing about leftist or rightist it's probably centrist. One of the rather more stupid criticisms of Macron was "he's not a socialist (gasp)!" If I had to put a label on him I'd call him a Lib Dem, but only in UK terms, since in France "liberal" means anything-goes capitalist. Anyway, we breathed a great sigh of relief last night that he won through to the second round.

<a bit of a rant>
We're now hoping that Marine gets (another) sound slap in the kisser and 'eifs off like a good 'eifer, but if she does lose she'll probably stick around like one of those nasty diseases that hides in the liver and only emerges once you've been healthy for years, like dormant syphilis**. Still, if she fails and the EUP lift her immunity she could end up behind bars, or at least with some fetching anklewear.

FWIW most of Alsace voted FN. Eh dear.

**although TBH she's more chronic than fulminating, even though she's a great fulminatrix.

</a bit of a rant>

Maybe Elsass could leave and join Germany, but the French are not so keen on freedom for minorities (e. g. the Breton language). Or Elsass (+ Lorraine?) could become a second Luxembourg

[mercalia]

I hope La Pen ( should be? ) wins wipe the smug look from the EU-fats

[reohn2]

I hope La Pen ( should be? ) wins wipe the smug look from the EU-fats

And that would be your sum total of reasoning why you'd like La Pen to win would it?

It takes all sorts to make a world,as they used to say......

[Psamathe]

Over 40% of the French voted for anti-EU candidates.

Actually I think you are counting votes cast NOT "the French". But do the math and what %age voted in favour of pro-EU candidates ?

Ian

[blackbike]

But do the math and what %age voted in favour of pro-EU candidates ?

I'll leave the maths to you.

I was pointing out that a substantial and increasing minority of people in France don't like the EU.

You wouldn't want their views and concerns to be ignored or dismissed would you, just because they are in a minority like our 48% of Remainers?

Things are only going one way in the EU - more right wing, more protectionist, more anti-EU and more nationalistic.

This French election follows that pattern.

Interesting times ahead for the bloc as it struggles to cope with these challenges, probably unsuccessfully.

[Psamathe]

But do the math and what %age voted in favour of pro-EU candidates ?

I'll leave the maths to you.

I was pointing out that a substantial and increasing minority of people in France don't like the EU.
.....

You are assuming that everybody who votes for e.g. Le Pen or Mélenchon is voting against the EU and has nothing to do with their other policies. Quite an assumption to make. Any evidence for your assumption?

Ian

[Audax67]

I was pointing out that a substantial and increasing minority of people in France don't like the EU.

E.g. a carrot farmer interviewed on the box who voted Le Pen because he wants France out of the EU. He was then asked where his workers came from: Romania & Hungary. Why not employ French people? Can't get 'em for what I'm offering. Who'll you employ if France leaves the EU? Duh.

[blackbike]

I was pointing out that a substantial and increasing minority of people in France don't like the EU.

E.g. a carrot farmer interviewed on the box who voted Le Pen because he wants France out of the EU. He was then asked where his workers came from: Romania & Hungary. Why not employ French people? Can't get 'em for what I'm offering. Who'll you employ if France leaves the EU? Duh.

Who picked his carrots before people from Romania and Hungary were allowed to work in France?

Employers will always take the cheapest labour available.

It enables them to keep more of the profits of their business for themselves.

France has very high unemployment.

The idea that it needs lots of extra low-skilled workers from poorer EU countries is ridiculous.

No wonder French people have abandoned the mainstream political parties and started to vote for populists like Macron and Le Pen.

They are desperate for change without having any real idea how they will achieve it.

Things will get a lot worse for them before they get better, if they ever do.

[Cyril Haearn]

The daily Wail has invented a new word, Frexit

It is not over until the blonde lady concedes

I fear she has something up her sleeve

[661-Pete]

I've been shying away from the politico stuff on the forum: perhaps just this once, seeing as (a) it's France (cocorico!) and (b) it seems to be going the way we'd hoped, I'll break my rule.

We were in fact at 'our' French village on Sunday (although we're back in the UK now). Not being French citizens, we couldn't of course take part but we saw all the comings-and-goings: folks from the surrounding farms etc. turning up at the Mairie to vote. It was a glorious sunny day and in the end we asked our fellow-Brit neighbours round to tea in our garden, which is secluded and a little distance away from all the activity - for which they were grateful. We had a long chat mostly not about politics: neither French, British, nor anywhere else's.....

A pleasant afternoon was passed. Mind you, our neighbours were firmly (and despondently) of the opinion that our village would go solidly LePen: what with its La Chasse and Foie Gras roots....

This was not the case.

Here are the results, as posted up on the local Mairie the following day (I've anonymised the actual locality). As you can see, the local distribution more or less mirrored the national trend, with Macron in the lead followed by LePen and then Fillon. Also note the impressively high turnout: 167 people voted (plus 4 spoilt ballots), out of a roll of 189: that's 88.4%. I think any British town, village, or constituency would be hard-pressed and extremely chuffed to reach that figure!

Macron? I hope so. Time someone, somewhere, got the least-worst option: he's by no means ideal but I shudder at what LePen might come up with. Aren't things bad enough, what folks have been landed with elsewhere?

[Cyril Haearn]

Just realised this is a chance to use my favourite phrase:

Bouleversement sur classement general!

I read that there was a new category, if one puts an empty envelope in the box it is registered as a vote for no-one, not a spoiled ballot paper. Could be one of the biggest *parties*

I think Macron is a bit like Blair, if he is a liberal he is maybe more like the German FDP, right wing liberals, a small party that was in coalition governments for decades

[mercalia]

well one journalist thinks that the French establishment may be in for a shock -

"Last spring, France saw nationwide protests against the labour laws that Macron had largely designed. The opposition was not only to their content, but also to the manner in which they were passed: the government bypassed a parliamentary vote. During these demonstrations police used high levels of violence, yet Macron never uttered a word to calm things down. He has already announced that he would resort to governing by decree if needed, and it is easy to anticipate increased social tensions by the autumn. To those who would oppose him, Macron would answer that he is implementing the programme on which he was elected."

"he has run a major risk: he has dared people who oppose him (and there are many) to abstain. An astonishing proportion of voters seem ready to call his bluff. The situation has become so alarming that a Le Pen victory is becoming less implausible every day."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/01/emmanuel-macron-french-voters-marine-le-pen?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=224068&subid=7646217&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

I dont understand his appeal as he was part of the Hollande govt that was loathed? The Guardian article may have a point that marketing him as a not Le Pen may well back fire

I hope Le Pen does win, maybe just maybe we wont need to Brexit with a dramatic overthrow of the Brussels and German old guard and sweeping reforms in the EU?

[Boyd]

The UK, the USA and now France, whatever else it does, it points to the political establishment having failed to connect with the voters

There's certainly an element of that. But these movements are a lot more complicated than the cry of the dispossessed. They are partly driven by rich and powerful interests in anti-establishment fancy dress, using the media they control, to promote their own agendas.

I agree that Trump, Putin, hedge fund managers, Dacre, press barons and assorted billionaires, have connected with the voters. I question their anti-establishment credentials, and whether many of the voters have been disconnected hitherto. For example, you could hardly describe all those Home Counties Leave supporters as politically disconnected.

"hedge fund managers" have connected with voters? Seriously? I am ignoring your other "connected with voters"
"you could hardly describe all those Home Counties Leave supporters as politically disconnected" Is Lincolnshire in the home counties? Is all the working class (the actual disposed) areas who voted decisively to leave in the in the home counties? Did the home counties actually vote to leave? Do you really think "hedge fund managers, Dacre, press barons and assorted billionaires," connected with voters....ludicrous they are the remainers.

[pete75]

Is Lincolnshire in the home counties?

Are you a Lincolnshire chap then Boyd? Where were you born?

[Boyd]

Is Lincolnshire in the home counties?

Are you a Lincolnshire chap then Boyd? Where were you born?

Where I was born is irrelevant to what I posted.
Are you Lincolnshire, where were you born?
Are you British? Where were you born?