French presidential election - a third shock?

[bovlomov]

The UK, the USA and now France, whatever else it does, it points to the political establishment having failed to connect with the voters

There's certainly an element of that. But these movements are a lot more complicated than the cry of the dispossessed. They are partly driven by rich and powerful interests in anti-establishment fancy dress, using the media they control, to promote their own agendas.

I agree that Trump, Putin, hedge fund managers, Dacre, press barons and assorted billionaires, have connected with the voters. I question their anti-establishment credentials, and whether many of the voters have been disconnected hitherto. For example, you could hardly describe all those Home Counties Leave supporters as politically disconnected.

"hedge fund managers" have connected with voters? Seriously? I am ignoring your other "connected with voters"
"you could hardly describe all those Home Counties Leave supporters as politically disconnected" Is Lincolnshire in the home counties? Is all the working class (the actual disposed) areas who voted decisively to leave in the in the home counties? Did the home counties actually vote to leave? Do you really think "hedge fund managers, Dacre, press barons and assorted billionaires," connected with voters....ludicrous they are the remainers.

I'm not sure what you mean. Some punctuation would help.

To clarify my post:

I'm saying that Brexit supporters come in many forms, and they are as present among the rich and comfortably off as they are among the poor and dispossessed.

I'm sure some hedge fund billionaires backed Remain, but some certainly funded UKIP and the Leave campaign. Dacre, Rothermere, Murdoch, Desmond, and the Barclay twins backed Leave.

The status of Lincolnshire and its electorate is not relevant to my post.

Can you explain what is ludicrous?

[al_yrpal]

Corbyn leading the Labour Party?

Al

[mercalia]

Corbyn leading the Labour Party?

Al

sorry to say the only thing he leads is his back side when he walks

[Psamathe]

Corbyn leading the Labour Party? :lol:

Al

I think there is no question that Corbyn is leading the Labour Party (leading them headlong into oblivion).

Ian

[bretonbikes]

Just to clarify a few things...

Melenchon would not have taken france out of the EU. That really only leaves Le Pen as the only 'out' candidate and one that got around 20% of the vote. She also will send all foreigners home, effectively ban mosques, return to the Franc and the usual fascist nonsense that plays well to a section of France that still thinks Vichy was a good idea.

France has always had a far right element in a way the UK hasn't, and make no mistake Le Pen is the 'acceptable face' of an extreme, anti semitic, anti muslim, nationalistic party that would not only take France out of the EU but also out of the human race.

She'll not get 40% thank God, but it is a stain that has long coloured the face of my beloved France...

[Psamathe]

Just to clarify a few things...

Melenchon would not have taken france out of the EU. That really only leaves Le Pen as the only 'out' candidate and one that got around 20% of the vote. She also will send all foreigners home, effectively ban mosques, return to the Franc and the usual fascist nonsense that plays well to a section of France that still thinks Vichy was a good idea.

France has always had a far right element in a way the UK hasn't, and make no mistake Le Pen is the 'acceptable face' of an extreme, anti semitic, anti muslim, nationalistic party that would not only take France out of the EU but also out of the human race.

She'll not get 40% thank God, but it is a stain that has long coloured the face of my beloved France...

I think that the French Presidential electoral system also allows voters to feel safer in using the 1st round as a "protest vote" as they know they'll get another vote to actually decide. In 2002 Jean-Marie Le Pen got through to the 2nd round only 3% of the vote behind Chirac; then in the 2nd round the electorate came to their senses. In this year's Le Pen was only 3% behind Macron in the 1st round.

Ian

[661-Pete]

I'm hoping that both the previous posts are right, but after brex**it and strumpf I'm taking nothing for granted. If LePen gets in I really don't know what to do about the French house. One of my instincts would be to cut and run.

But we may do that anyway.

[pete75]

Just to clarify a few things...

Melenchon would not have taken france out of the EU. That really only leaves Le Pen as the only 'out' candidate and one that got around 20% of the vote. She also will send all foreigners home, effectively ban mosques, return to the Franc and the usual fascist nonsense that plays well to a section of France that still thinks Vichy was a good idea.

France has always had a far right element in a way the UK hasn't, and make no mistake Le Pen is the 'acceptable face' of an extreme, anti semitic, anti muslim, nationalistic party that would not only take France out of the EU but also out of the human race.

She'll not get 40% thank God, but it is a stain that has long coloured the face of my beloved France...

Looking at the number of posters here who say they hope she'll get elected those views have sympathisers here.

[pete75]

Is Lincolnshire in the home counties?

Are you a Lincolnshire chap then Boyd? Where were you born?

Where I was born is irrelevant to what I posted.
Are you Lincolnshire, where were you born?
Are you British? Where were you born?

I live in Lincs and was born here. Were you or are you an incomer?

[bretonbikes]

Just to clarify a few things...

Melenchon would not have taken france out of the EU. That really only leaves Le Pen as the only 'out' candidate and one that got around 20% of the vote. She also will send all foreigners home, effectively ban mosques, return to the Franc and the usual fascist nonsense that plays well to a section of France that still thinks Vichy was a good idea.

France has always had a far right element in a way the UK hasn't, and make no mistake Le Pen is the 'acceptable face' of an extreme, anti semitic, anti muslim, nationalistic party that would not only take France out of the EU but also out of the human race.

She'll not get 40% thank God, but it is a stain that has long coloured the face of my beloved France...

Looking at the number of posters here who say they hope she'll get elected those views have sympathisers here.

There are always people attracted to this sort of thing - single-sentence solutions to complex problems are always going to get votes and a lot of people have no interest in history. Just remember that no extreme right-wing ruler in Europe has ever got into power and then relinquished it voluntarily in the last 100 years.

[mercalia]

well look at the alternative that isnt? the main parties have been rejected presumably becuase they are part of the system? yet the only other choice to Le Pen is some one who was in Hollandes govt and responsible for some of his policies, so the choice is Le pen or Hollande v2 who has said some quite reactionary things like if necessary will rule by decree - some choice?

[bretonbikes]

well look at the alternative that isnt? the main parties have been rejected presumably becuase they are part of the system? yet the only other choice to Le Pen is some one who was in Hollandes govt and responsible for some of his policies, so the choice is Le pen or Hollande v2 who has said some quite reactionary things like if necessary will rule by decree - some choice?

The choice is between a liberal 'Blairite' democrat; and a fascist, holocaust denying, anti-semitic, economically illiterate, rabid nationalist.

Even the French can't screw this one up and the idea that some people see them as moral equivalents is beyond contempt. Luckily in Britain we will never face such a choice...

[mercalia]

well look at the alternative that isnt? the main parties have been rejected presumably becuase they are part of the system? yet the only other choice to Le Pen is some one who was in Hollandes govt and responsible for some of his policies, so the choice is Le pen or Hollande v2 who has said some quite reactionary things like if necessary will rule by decree - some choice?

The choice is between a liberal 'Blairite' democrat; and a fascist, holocaust denying, anti-semitic, economically illiterate, rabid nationalist.

Even the French can't screw this one up and the idea that some people see them as moral equivalents is beyond contempt. Luckily in Britain we will never face such a choice...

I think it would do this country good to have such a choice as then the alternative would have to start really "making this a country for every one" in deed as well as word rather than keep on trying to manipulate us treating us as fools, no more upper class Camerons or Osbornes who smugly claim they are acting in the best interests of the country

[PDQ Mobile]

It looks as if Macron has won the election pretty decisively.
I am relieved on many fronts.
The doomsayers about the further break up of the EU appear to be wrong.(my fiver's safe a bit longer! Personal lighthearted joke)

But above all the France that I have come to love seems to be staying true to it's liberal tolerant self.

Vive la France!

[661-Pete]

I too am mightily relieved. So will many people I know in France (though not all, maybe...). Macron seems to be home and dry with 65% - certainly a decisive result even with the low (by French standards) turnout.

The French electoral system, the Scrutin uninominal majoritaire à deux tours, certainly seems an improvement on the English voting system, although it is far from perfect, with a lot of horse-trading going on between the two rounds. I shudder to think what might have been the outcome under a FPTP system, seeing as LePen came within 3% of a plurality in round 1 (albeit only in the 20%'s). But I'm not sure I'd care to see that system adopted here. AV - the system rejected in the 2012 referendum - seems the best option. But I suppose we're stuck with FPTP till kingdom come....

So we'll be able to make our next French trip without too much misgivings. If only it weren't for that wretched brex**it thingy.....