French presidential election - a third shock?

[Cyril Haearn]

We don't need a third shock, a French voter told the Guardian. Voters in London and elsewhere had to queue to vote

Looks like a second vote will held with only the two best placed candidates

Who is your choice? Have any of our cycling heroes gone into politics? Hinault, Barteau, Thevenet, Poulidor

[landsurfer]

Le Pen ........

[francovendee]

The UK, the USA and now France, whatever else it does, it points to the political establishment having failed to connect with the voters

[bovlomov]

The UK, the USA and now France, whatever else it does, it points to the political establishment having failed to connect with the voters

There's certainly an element of that. But these movements are a lot more complicated than the cry of the dispossessed. They are partly driven by rich and powerful interests in anti-establishment fancy dress, using the media they control, to promote their own agendas.

I agree that Trump, Putin, hedge fund managers, Dacre, press barons and assorted billionaires, have connected with the voters. I question their anti-establishment credentials, and whether many of the voters have been disconnected hitherto. For example, you could hardly describe all those Home Counties Leave supporters as politically disconnected.

[thirdcrank]

The French system of presidential elections - first-past-the-post on the second time round - was devised to pick the candidate who most voters could get along with , once they'd had the pick of a big field representing every shade of opinion in the first round. In a country with a lot of centralised political authority but historically dogged by feuding, ephemeral coalitions, it's intended to provide a president with a solid mandate. I suspect this time round we will see a compromise result: Mr Wotsisname gets in because he's not had the time or opportunity to alienate a big section of the electorate.

[al_yrpal]

Newspaper circulation is less than 10 million in Britain. The right wing newspapers like the Mail and Express are only a small part of that. Most people get their news from TV or the internet. According to figures Guardian readership is 22 million on line? So the notion of right wing mind control favoured by the left is a fantasy. However, in literature and life it's most often the left itself that's been seen as guilty of that. Various failed societies around the world are still clear examples of mind control. Corbyn admires Maduro in Venezuela where you have difficulty finding something to wipe your bum on with food riots and four figure inflation. He also favours discourse with the IRA, Hamas and ISIL. How does a numpty like that ever get to head up a once leading UK political party, and how are the looney left going to be purged so we can have a sensible alternative government?

Al

[bovlomov]

Newspaper circulation is less than 10 million in Britain. The right wing newspapers like the Mail and Express are only a small part of that. Most people get their news from TV or the internet. According to figures Guardian readership is 22 million on line? So the notion of right wing mind control favoured by the left is a fantasy. However, in literature and life it's most often the left itself that's been seen as guilty of that. Various failed societies around the world are still clear examples of mind control. Corbyn admires Maduro in Venezuela where you have difficulty finding something to wipe your bum on with food riots and four figure inflation. He also favours discourse with the IRA, Hamas and ISIL. How does a numpty like that ever get to head up a once leading UK political party, and how are the looney left going to be purged so we can have a sensible alternative government?

Al

Was that in response to my post?

When I wrote 'media', I had in mind all of its forms. For the votes in question, it seems that targeting of social media has been effective.

Print media exerts influence beyond its circulation figures.

The Guardian is not left wing. Its boardroom is filled with financiers. It has been consistently hostile to Corbyn. And only this week it has published a piece about May (more suited to Hello magazine), and promoted the Lib Dems. Economically right wing, I think, is a better description.

[Audax67]

^^^If you're arguing about leftist or rightist it's probably centrist. One of the rather more stupid criticisms of Macron was "he's not a socialist (gasp)!" If I had to put a label on him I'd call him a Lib Dem, but only in UK terms, since in France "liberal" means anything-goes capitalist. Anyway, we breathed a great sigh of relief last night that he won through to the second round.

<a bit of a rant>
We're now hoping that Marine gets (another) sound slap in the kisser and 'eifs off like a good 'eifer, but if she does lose she'll probably stick around like one of those nasty diseases that hides in the liver and only emerges once you've been healthy for years, like dormant syphilis**. Still, if she fails and the EUP lift her immunity she could end up behind bars, or at least with some fetching anklewear.

FWIW most of Alsace voted FN. Eh dear.

**although TBH she's more chronic than fulminating, even though she's a great fulminatrix.

</a bit of a rant>

[Psamathe]

The French system of presidential elections - first-past-the-post on the second time round - was devised to pick the candidate who most voters could get along with , once they'd had the pick of a big field representing every shade of opinion in the first round. In a country with a lot of centralised political authority but historically dogged by feuding, ephemeral coalitions, it's intended to provide a president with a solid mandate. I suspect this time round we will see a compromise result: Mr Wotsisname gets in because he's not had the time or opportunity to alienate a big section of the electorate.

I think another aspect of the 2 stage election is that in the 1st round, because they are not actually choosing a President at that point people (some) are more prepared to use their vote as a "protest" - confident they will get another vote in the 2nd round when they can "come to their senses". For example, 2002 Jean-Marie Le Pen was one of the two winning the 1st round (with only 3% behind the highest vote share), then the electorate decided it was time to be more sensible ... (and I think then FN was somewhat more extreme than it is today).

Press love to talk about how we "are in uncharted territory ..." and how <some strange aspect> "has never happened before ..." because that makes for dramatic news (and sells papers).

Ian

[bovlomov]

^^^If you're arguing about leftist or rightist it's probably centrist.

Or perhaps the left/right division has become rather complicated.

FWIW most of Alsace voted FN.

Do you have any idea who these voters are? Are they the politically disconnected underclass?

[reohn2]

of Corbyn

How does a numpty like that ever get to head up a once leading UK political party, and how are the looney left going to be purged so we can have a sensible alternative government?

Al

How does a numptie like Cameron get to be PM?
By going to to the right school maybe?

How does the present PM get to be PM.
Not by an election presently,though she'll have her chance in June.

He also favours discourse with the IRA, Hamas and ISIL.

It may be worth remembering a very prominent Tory once said "jaw,jaw is better than war,war"
It's how the NI troubles were eventually resolved.
I well remember chatting to two workmates about the first Gulf War,both were enthusiastic for it.
Both had sons.
Both went very quiet when I mentioned that perhaps their sons should sign up immediately.
Wars are all very well when someone else is fighting them,and for some preferably when they're buying the weapons you've supplied.......

[Audax67]

FWIW most of Alsace voted FN.

Do you have any idea who these voters are? Are they the politically disconnected underclass?

They tend to be politically aware on a low level, ignorant of history, and easily led by simplistic arguments such as Moslem = terrorist, immigrant = terrorist, and Euro = unemployment and Franc = good old days. Also deaf to explanations, e.g. claims that prices have soared since we got the Euro, whereas inflation has been lower since 2002 than before. Also more rural than urban and in lower income-brackets, manual workers rather than office or management. Moslem [immigrants] are to Marine as Jews to Hitler, though she never says it out loud, but they don't see that and happily swallow all the xenophobic cant.

Hey, Trump likes her. 'Nuff said.

[HoWB Dave]

I reckon it's Macron a shoe-in.

Why? The French will always march to a different drum and delight in being contrary to the anglo Saxon world. Now that Britain and the USA are perceived as given up on liberalism the French are bound to see this as their chance to choose a market liberal President.

The example that comes to mind is a few years ago when Jeremy Clarkson (remember him?) said something along the lines of BMW's being the best cars but owners had always been at risk of being associated with a certain sort of motorist. Then one day: "Finally we can enjoy the BMW M3, because all the idiots have gone out and brought Audi's!".

David

[Audax67]

I reckon it's Macron a shoe-in.

Why? The French will always march to a different drum and delight in being contrary to the anglo Saxon world. Now that Britain and the USA are perceived as given up on liberalism the French are bound to see this as their chance to choose a market liberal President.

Funnily enough the French do not define themselves by what they're not, any more than the Brits do wrt Polynesians.

[blackbike]

Over 40% of the French voted for anti-EU candidates.