blackbike wrote: I didn't mention Mrs May's standing with her party's rank and file because this is a thread about Mr Corbyn's chances of becoming PM within 6 months. I agree
Given the divisions in the Labour Party I don't think it is at all certain that Corbyn would be the next PM even if Labour win the next election.I agree
He could be history by then.I agree
Apparently there is a Labour plot to undermine Corbyn's authority going on right now.I agree
The funny thing is I agree with all your points. But that's politics. I'm standing by my earlier prognosis above in which the Tories will select a new and dynamic leader to take on Corbyn (assuming he's still leader), a sort of Cameron Mark II. As the polls stand it's 45/39 in Labour's favour which means there won't be a voluntary election yet a while. But the Commons is a volatile place and TM has a very thin majority - a couple of Tory MPs kicking the bucket, Sinn Fein getting cheap flights to Heathrow and we are in election territory. And then all bets are off (sorry alyrpal).
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
I think the OP needs to give us more details as to how he sees Corbyn becoming PM or not. The crystal ball is very foggy at the moment and Corbyn has both electoral and parliamentary routes to No.10.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
I don't believe Corbyn has a parliamentary route to No 10. Now the Tories got the queen's speech through they can coast along for a bit. There's a lot of noise, there's some decent effective opposition at long last and what we are getting is a few Corbyn policies without the disadvantages of Corbyn. More Tory softening I think even though we are still increasing public debt at the rate of £1 billion a week and paying £1 billion a week in interest. As for the electoral route it's pretty much blocked. The Tories will fight tooth and nail to hold on. As for general public sentiment I am the wrong person to ask because I live in the heart of the promised land. Even so the Labour party here increased it vote from lost deposit to 11500 at the recent election. But the sitting MP still got 33000 votes like he did before. This implies that Labour voters, old and new, had been sitting on their hands. But Corbyn still lost heavily.
Have you decided on which bike to get yet, it's only been 2 years or so of vacilation?
Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
I just upgraded from the Grauniad to the Sun where I read that Jacob Rees-Mogg is favourite to succeed Chairperson May and be Jezzas opponent next time
He has one Welsh name, +1!
But what newspaper does he read?
Entertainer, juvenile, curmudgeon, PoB, 30120 Cycling-of course, but it is far better on a Gillott We love safety cameras, we hate bullies
Cyril Haearn wrote:I just upgraded from the Grauniad to the Sun where I read that Jacob Rees-Mogg is favourite to succeed Chairperson May and be Jezzas opponent next time ....
I think that would probably help Corbyn even more. Mogg might be popular within the core Conservative Party but he comes across as having a very privileged background (Eton, Oxford, £££££) and whilst Conservatives love that, to get elected they need far wider support.
Also, Mogg is a staunch and uncompromising supporter of brexit and public opinion is moving away from Brexit so he'll have even more of an uphill struggle there as well.
And if he starts the "I will work to improve the conditions for those at the lower end ..." who will believe him (given his background and accent). Nobody believes May when she spouts similar but Mogg has a lot more of a challenge.
reohn2 wrote:Ian I'll second that,and hope he does become leader At least he'll help rid the country of this shower currently making a complete spherics of it :)
Also, I wonder if Mogg (or his supporters or the "hackers") have moved too soon. I'd expect even the most blinkered supporters of brexit to recognise by now what a disaster Brexit is going to be for the UK and for some (e.g. Mogg) they think that is a price worth paying (they are wealthy enough anyway so they wont actually be doing "the paying"). So they need to wait for the Brexit disaster, then they'll have May to blame it on; wont be hard for either side, Remain saying it always was a bad idea badly executed whilst Leave can declare it was a disaster because May really stood for a softer Brexit and did not negotiate hard enough.
But to start his campaign now is far too early. Or maybe it's the anti-Mogg factions who are starting it now deliberately too early so he is perceived as a threat and as disloyal and will be rejected like Gove was. Activate seem to be somewhat at odds with themselves claiming they were hacked by Activate themselves, pro-May factions hijacking the pro-Mogg factions ... And their website became something of a joke when they were publishing donations with names ... and the names of donors then included e.g. Harold Shipman and Jimmy Saville! only for them to then claim the web site has not yet been launched!
Cyril Haearn wrote:I just upgraded from the Grauniad to the Sun where I read that Jacob Rees-Mogg is favourite to succeed Chairperson May and be Jezzas opponent next time ....
Mogg has the face of someone who was at the bottom of the bullying hierarchy at school (presumably private). It's no wonder he looked for solace in an invisible friend and took the medieval teachings of their supporters at face value.