Do You think we should leave the EU?

[pwa]

....I for one believe we should fulfil our obligations.

I think if we don't it will have a big impact on how the rest of the world views us and in turn the nature of any trade deals we might make. If other countries have seen the UK just walk away (even partially) from our obligations they will want to make sure that when we do the same to them they don't lose out badly.

Ian

But we are not talking about a simply calculated figure. There will be a lot of scope for different opinions on how to work it out. Capitulating and paying up as soon as a figure is mentioned would be daft.

[mercalia]

well if we dont leave then this will be the message sent to all the capitals -

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I'm not sure I'm seeing what you intended, but I think it would be a more accurate description of the current self harm!

well I think that many of the EU countries will be glad to see the back of us as we have held up the unification of Europe ?

[PDQ Mobile]

While I find the cartoon quite amusing it also makes me sad that our foreign secretary can be so simplistically minded.
Did Eton educate him for this?

Overall I am saddened by disbelief that we have arrived at this point.
Our best allies and political friends across the channel must be losing patience with this foolishness.
This terrible Govt. has now overseen the most disastrous period I ever witnessed, mostly by its own incompetence.
It's such a mess.

[661-Pete]

well since Vince Cable, is it, thinks that Brexit wont happen and lots have changed their mind, time to have another referendum?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-40542525/vince-cable-brexit-might-never-happen

YES.

Despite my pro-EU stance, I still say NO to that. I fear that another referendum - whether or not a significant proportion of the electorate have indeed 'changed their minds' or not - would simply serve to invoke yet another drive-by of propaganda machines such as that wretched 'bus' (last spotted here, I believe):


Of course the Parliamentary vote - which one assumes represents the view of better-informed individuals - was a disappointment to those of us who favour the Remain option. But of course the MPs were whipped. And all of us, MPs even, party leaders even, can equally have a change of heart. And they're not quite so susceptible to painted buses. And remember, we've had a general election since - and more to come....

[Psamathe]

....I for one believe we should fulfil our obligations.

I think if we don't it will have a big impact on how the rest of the world views us and in turn the nature of any trade deals we might make. If other countries have seen the UK just walk away (even partially) from our obligations they will want to make sure that when we do the same to them they don't lose out badly.

Ian

But we are not talking about a simply calculated figure. There will be a lot of scope for different opinions on how to work it out. Capitulating and paying up as soon as a figure is mentioned would be daft.

It's a question of degree. If we just walk away refusing to honour any of our commitments (as some MPs have proposed) then it would have a disastrous effect on how others regard/trust us which would have a terrible impact on any trade deals. If we argue hard an come to some sort of "agreement" then that would not have such a bad effect outside the EU but we also need to remember the EU is our biggest export destination and to get a trade agreement with the EU means the then EU member states unanimously agreeing to that agreement; so if one country feels we've not properly honoured our obligations and says "no" we have no trade deal with our biggest export trade region - and that would cost us far more than coming to reasonable amicable terms.

I don't think anybody expects the UK to capitulate and pay the 1st amount asked, but then a surprisingly large numbers of MPs and been saying we should refuse to pay anything (and Blobby may even support such a stance - difficult to tell he is so incoherent these days).

Ian

[pwa]

I think if we don't it will have a big impact on how the rest of the world views us and in turn the nature of any trade deals we might make. If other countries have seen the UK just walk away (even partially) from our obligations they will want to make sure that when we do the same to them they don't lose out badly.

Ian

But we are not talking about a simply calculated figure. There will be a lot of scope for different opinions on how to work it out. Capitulating and paying up as soon as a figure is mentioned would be daft.

It's a question of degree. If we just walk away refusing to honour any of our commitments (as some MPs have proposed) then it would have a disastrous effect on how others regard/trust us which would have a terrible impact on any trade deals. If we argue hard an come to some sort of "agreement" then that would not have such a bad effect outside the EU but we also need to remember the EU is our biggest export destination and to get a trade agreement with the EU means the then EU member states unanimously agreeing to that agreement; so if one country feels we've not properly honoured our obligations and says "no" we have no trade deal with our biggest export trade region - and that would cost us far more than coming to reasonable amicable terms.

I don't think anybody expects the UK to capitulate and pay the 1st amount asked, but then a surprisingly large numbers of MPs and been saying we should refuse to pay anything (and Blobby may even support such a stance - difficult to tell he is so incoherent these days).

Ian

Think of it as Bargain Hunt with two parties negotiating on the price of something. One mentions a price and the other throws his/her hands up in mock horror and suggests a much lower price. Both know roughly where they will end up agreeing but they have a silly dance to do before they get there. If you see BJ's comments in that light they may be more coherent than is usual for him.

[Psamathe]

But we are not talking about a simply calculated figure. There will be a lot of scope for different opinions on how to work it out. Capitulating and paying up as soon as a figure is mentioned would be daft.

It's a question of degree. If we just walk away refusing to honour any of our commitments (as some MPs have proposed) then it would have a disastrous effect on how others regard/trust us which would have a terrible impact on any trade deals. If we argue hard an come to some sort of "agreement" then that would not have such a bad effect outside the EU but we also need to remember the EU is our biggest export destination and to get a trade agreement with the EU means the then EU member states unanimously agreeing to that agreement; so if one country feels we've not properly honoured our obligations and says "no" we have no trade deal with our biggest export trade region - and that would cost us far more than coming to reasonable amicable terms.

I don't think anybody expects the UK to capitulate and pay the 1st amount asked, but then a surprisingly large numbers of MPs and been saying we should refuse to pay anything (and Blobby may even support such a stance - difficult to tell he is so incoherent these days).

Ian

Think of it as Bargain Hunt with two parties negotiating on the price of something. One mentions a price and the other throws his/her hands up in mock horror and suggests a much lower price. Both know roughly where they will end up agreeing but they have a silly dance to do before they get there. If you see BJ's comments in that light they may be more coherent than is usual for him.

The difficulty comes in that the final agreement (including the financial numbers) will be approved by EU using qualified majority vote which means that a few countries thinking UK is not paying enough will be out voted and the leave agreement gets approved. But when we come to the trade deal, every EU member state has a veto so those countries feeling the UK has not lived-up to their obligations might then start blocking any trade deal (or requiring worse terms for UK, better terms of them/EU).

Ian

[NATURAL ANKLING]

Hi,

image.jpg

While I find the cartoon quite amusing it also makes me sad that our foreign secretary can be so simplistically minded.
Did Eton educate him for this?

Overall I am saddened by disbelief that we have arrived at this point.
Our best allies and political friends across the channel must be losing patience with this foolishness.
This terrible Govt. has now overseen the most disastrous period I ever witnessed, mostly by its own incompetence.
It's such a mess.

And you think the rest of EU aren't in a more mess than us?
Do you think that the EU with hold up on its promise to honour grants to say cornwall?

[Tangled Metal]

It's worse than country blocking the trade agreement. In some countries such as Belgium it gets put to regions. Any single region if these countries could block it!

If Wallonia vetoed the deal l, like they were threatening with the end game of the Canadian deal, that would mean less than 1% of the eu population stops the deal.

BTW I believe it's more about the costs of doing cross border trade in terms of customs requirements than trade tariffs under WTO or negotiated preferential terms. We do need the customs union at least I think. The tariffs, even with WTO rules, are trending down across the world.

[PDQ Mobile]

And you think the rest of EU aren't in a more mess than us?
Do you think that the EU with hold up on its promise to honour grants to say cornwall?

I don't think they are in more of a mess than us.
That there are problems is clear but there is also a willingness to find solutions.
Overall I think the EU has been a force for a better enviromental policy and democracy.

There are considerable problems with refugees partly from wars fought by among others the UK.
It is my perception that although we have been some of the cause we have been less willing than some other member states to help with solutions.

I do think the EU wil honour its funding commitments to Cornwall. They are an honorable bunch by and large.
(In stark contrast to our own "go with the wind" dishonourable Govt.)
However the UK must also honour its own commitments.

(Why did Cornwall vote leave?
It seems like an act of self harm to me.
A lot of resident pensioners I guess)

[blackbike]

Things are looking good for a hard Brexit.

It is increasingly obvious that no agreements can be reached and we are headed for a split which will reveal the full extent of the EU's self-interest and fierce protectionism.

This is exactly what I've hoped for since the referendum.

[pwa]

And you think the rest of EU aren't in a more mess than us?
Do you think that the EU with hold up on its promise to honour grants to say cornwall?

I don't think they are in more of a mess than us.
That there are problems is clear but there is also a willingness to find solutions.
Overall I think the EU has been a force for a better enviromental policy and democracy.

There are considerable problems with refugees partly from wars fought by among others the UK.
It is my perception that although we have been some of the cause we have been less willing than some other member states to help with solutions.

I do think the EU wil honour its funding commitments to Cornwall. They are an honorable bunch by and large.
(In stark contrast to our own "go with the wind" dishonourable Govt.)
However the UK must also honour its own commitments.

(Why did Cornwall vote leave?
It seems like an act of self harm to me.
A lot of resident pensioners I guess)

Are pensioners fair game now that we cannot pick on ethnic minorities?

[Tangled Metal]

It's not the current government that got us here. It is the previous government led by Cameron. Might be a small consolation but it's a distinction I'd like noted. May is reacting to another's mess. Tories are good at that following Labour governments!

[PDQ Mobile]

Are pensioners fair game now that we cannot pick on ethnic minorities?

It's not a question of fair game or picking on anyone but rather of the voting demographics as I understand them? Please put me right if I err.


Genuinely interested in the Cornish result and reasons for it.
There are similarities with (S) Wales I guess.

[Tangled Metal]

One political analysis of Europe I read at the weekend was that there could be a shift in the EU direction towards a protectionist approach to trade. The piece argued that Germany was a strong advocate for more open trade, closely aligned with the UK. Without the close ally Merkel and Germany had with the UK on this their position is weakened. Emboldened the Mediterranean nations, led by Italy no doubt, could step in/up to drive the EU into a new direction.

How true this is I don't know, but it's worth considering the positions of remaining EU nations and which position/group of nations gain ascendancy. Personally I hope it's Germany with another country but not France. I don't trust the French/German axis and I reckon since Merkel ousted those with Kohl's beliefs in Europe it was more a UK/German axis