On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

PH wrote:
Statistics without analysis are always to be treated with caution and I don't think we have the data to make these meaningful.


I agree and my prediction isn't based on trends and analysis and the only way to know if I am right is to come back in five years' time (or even a little earlier? :wink: ).

nearly 25% of the bikes bought on my works Cycle Scheme were electric


I think this is extraordinary. I hadn't mentioned Cycle to Work as one of the factors in my "perfect storm" but we can add it now. The £1000 limit (and on credit) is just spot on and the use (commuting) a no-brainer for many people.

The interesting thing for me is not what percentage of future bike sales are electric, but the proportion of journeys they will be used for. This is increasing at a speed I would call revolutionary


As you said, we don't have the stats but I am no psychic and, like you, I have based my prediction on what I see and hear. The evidence is there if you look, as you have done. You can call it chilling or you can call it exciting but you cannot dismiss it.
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Cyril Haearn
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Cyril Haearn »

In Germany there was talk of 2m electric cars in a few years, there are a few 10.000 now but there are 2m electric cycles

I plan to do a bit of observation and cook up some statistics

Hundreds of bikes are parked by the Hauptbahnhof, there is not enough room. Fortunately a nearby underground car park is half empty, there are plans to upgrade it to a Fahrradpakhaus
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Audax67 »

T'other day I nipped into an LBS to pick up a couple of gear cables. I hadn't been there over the past year. I was somewhat surprised to see that his two rows of up-market road bikes had been reduced to just three entry-level models, and the space given over to electrical BSOs. The MTB section was a bit sparse too, come to that, and the endurance-drinks shelf was full of other stuff.

The owner is ex-pro, too. He looked kinda sheepish, and we talked about something else.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mercalia »

received an email today by a seller of ebikes - special offer over the Bank Holiday. I only glanced at it but something that caught my attention was the sale of e-bikes for kids :roll: :evil: really crazy idea?
kwackers
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by kwackers »

mercalia wrote:received an email today by a seller of ebikes - special offer over the Bank Holiday. I only glanced at it but something that caught my attention was the sale of e-bikes for kids :roll: :evil: really crazy idea?

Can they pull wheelies on them? If not the idea is dead in the water...
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mercalia »

kwackers wrote:
mercalia wrote:received an email today by a seller of ebikes - special offer over the Bank Holiday. I only glanced at it but something that caught my attention was the sale of e-bikes for kids :roll: :evil: really crazy idea?

Can they pull wheelies on them? If not the idea is dead in the water...


I was thinking more in terms of the obesity problem among the young, but you are right no street cred if it dont perform just be laughed at as an old fogey
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Cyril Haearn »

mercalia wrote:received an email today by a seller of ebikes - special offer over the Bank Holiday. I only glanced at it but something that caught my attention was the sale of e-bikes for kids :roll: :evil: really crazy idea?


Crazy (it's the economy, stupid :()

I remember I was bought a bike that was too big, I had to grow into it. Grew out of it a bit later. Mind, there was a (blue) Convertible with a removable crossbar (top tube) that could be converted into a girl's bike

A big big minus with powered bikes will be the increase in speed :(
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Vorpal »

mercalia wrote:received an email today by a seller of ebikes - special offer over the Bank Holiday. I only glanced at it but something that caught my attention was the sale of e-bikes for kids :roll: :evil: really crazy idea?

Is it? What if it made the difference for tweens or teens riding their bikes to school?

Kids don't want to arrive a school drenched in sweat any more than adults want to arrive at work that way. While every child is different, around 10 or 11 years old, many start to become becoming extremely self-conscious about such things.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mercalia »

Vorpal wrote:
mercalia wrote:received an email today by a seller of ebikes - special offer over the Bank Holiday. I only glanced at it but something that caught my attention was the sale of e-bikes for kids :roll: :evil: really crazy idea?

Is it? What if it made the difference for tweens or teens riding their bikes to school?

Kids don't want to arrive a school drenched in sweat any more than adults want to arrive at work that way. While every child is different, around 10 or 11 years old, many start to become becoming extremely self-conscious about such things.


well here you are -

http://www.50cycles.com/electric-bikes/haibike-bikes/sduro_hardfour_rx_kids.html?utm_source=ZohoCampaigns&utm_campaign=August+Bank+Holiday+Re-Send_2017-08-28&utm_medium=email
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Vorpal »

I don't want one. :lol: My kids are happy with their bikes. Mini V rides to school ( about 2.5 miles on her normal route). Both kids got new bikes this year.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by Vorpal »

I had a look at the stands at Mini V's school yesterday. There are 75 children at the school, and around 25 staff and teachers. There were 13 bikes in the stands, and two were electric. One was child sized (24" wheels) the other was a small adult sized bike (about the size of Mini V's small Trek 7.2 FX). I don't know if it belonged to a student, or a teacher.
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pete75
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by pete75 »

Cunobelin wrote:
Si wrote:I'm seeing more and more of them in Birmingham...I've even had to fix one for someone who works in the office.

At the moment a member of our team is looking into installing public use charge points in the city centre....apparently it's a 'mare as they all have different fittings


Ironically the same issue with cars.

There is an answer though with a universal fitting, something that is a major thorn in the side of the Governments strategy, but could be solved, but at a massive expense


There is a universal fitting rated at 13 amps and with 3 pins. Just provide a standard mains socket for people to use with their own chargers. Most are light and compact enough to be easily carries on a bike.
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by RickH »

I came across this report from the European Cycling Federation (PDF) analysing sales in 2015.

I've only skimmed though it but this chart on p12

2015 european e-bike sales.JPG

shows strong levels of sales of e-bikes in several European countries.
Others may (or may not) glean more relevant info from reading through the report :D
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horizon
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by horizon »

The report says that:

This analysis also indicates that the UK, France, Spain and Italy may have a natural cap on the
growth of e-bikes because they do not have the underlying conditions that encourage cycling in
general, for example cycling infrastructure.


If that's true, it will be interesting to see how it pans out. But I'm not totally convinced myself. My point would be that although cycling overall may remain static (for the reasons they give) the proportion of ebikes within that will grow dramatically. My prediction is about proportion not total number.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
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Re: On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

Post by mjr »

softlips wrote:I work in Copenhagen, Amsterdam and other big cycling cities and have yet to see an electric bike in any of them.

There are racks upon racks of them for hire in Copenhagen, including outside the town hall. Big white things with tablet computers stuck on the handlebars. They're pretty easy to spot.
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