On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

[Ruadh495]

I seem to see quite a few about. More than I would expect, given the small proportion of bicycle sales that E-bikes constitute. Perhaps E-bikes are more likely to get regular use? Due to the sunk cost perhaps?

In my opinion E-bikes aren't for cyclists; they don't replace unpowered bicycles for most uses.

I see them as replacing mopeds almost entirely and making inroads into public transport use, along with a smaller effect on car use. They have only half the speed of mopeds, but that doesn't make a huge difference as a 27mph moped is still slow enough to be menaced by traffic. E-bikes can use cycle infrastructure to get out of traffic on fast routes, where mopeds can't. Then you don't need a license, insurance, MOT or a helmet... To the non-cyclist looking for a way out of the car congestion or off over-priced, over-crowded public transport, an e-bike looks a lot more accessible than a moped or light motorcycle. It also looks more accessible than an unpowered bicycle, no need to be super fit or look good in lycra.

BTW, an E-bike does become a motorcycle when ridden by a 13 year old. An E-bike is legally a powered vehicle (it's got a motor) but is treated as a pedal cycle under the Road Traffic Act as long as the conditions in the EAPC Regulations are met. One of those conditions is that the rider must be 14 or over. So if any one of the conditions is not met, the e-bike can not be treated as a pedal cycle and must be treated as an unregistered moped.

[kwackers]

In my opinion E-bikes aren't for cyclists; they don't replace unpowered bicycles for most uses.

The people I know personally that have bought ebikes have bought them to replace bicycles. I don't know anyone who's bought one as a car replacement.

I'm toying with the idea of one to replace my train journey. It's a journey I mostly make by train and occasionally by bike but imo it's just a bit too far for me to be bothered doing regularly by bike. An ebike otoh would make it doable regularly.

[reohn2]

In my opinion E-bikes aren't for cyclists; they don't replace unpowered bicycles for most uses.

I see them as replacing mopeds almost entirely and making inroads into public transport use, along with a smaller effect on car use

The law defines them as bicycles providing their power is restricted to 250watt/15mph therefore their users are cyclists.
They can replace bicycles for all uses because of the law's definition of them,that's a fact.
They don't won't replace mopeds,if indeed there are any true mopeds about these days and they won't replace the resticted use 49cc scooters that were popular up until a few years ago,because those are much quicker on an open road and no quicker in slow movimg heavy traffic.

I do see some problems arising with illegal e-bikes being used on the road,500 and 1000watt over the counter bicycles and conversion kits are readily available,advertised as "not for road use".
Unless the police are on top of their game,fat chance IMO due to their present lack of manpower.Such bikes could become a nuisance both on and off road where they will still be illegal on byways and bridleways and stand to make cycling more unpopular with those that come on contact with.
The law in such circumstances needs to be enforced vigorously,I'm not holding my breath.......

[thirdcrank]

Interesting pic here from the Leodis photographic archive. Look closely and the cyclist in the middle of the picture has a bike with a motor built into the back wheel. Several of the later comments discuss the specific type of motor. I don't think we had cusps in Leeds way back in 1955, and this never made it onto one anyway

http://www.leodis.net/display.aspx?reso ... SPLAY=FULL

[horizon]

Interesting pic here from the Leodis photographic archive.

It could have been me! (i cycled through the centre of Leeds eariier this year- great city!)

Lots of things come and go but depend on new advances in science and invention to make them work (think of man jumping off church in Shrewsbury in 1739* to zip wires, bungee jumping and hang gliders today). Although it isn't wholly my reason for thinking that EAPCs are here in a big way, there is a neat juxtaposition of things that means their time has come. The most imoprtant of these is probably the lithium-ion battery but you still have to add the current popularity of cycling, the issue of weight loss, traffic, global warming and electronic controls to give EAPCs lift off. And I think even the legal definition of an EAPC is hugely important - read motor power without helmet, tax and insurance.

Here's something else as well to be going along with (we've got five years to wait for this thread to come to culmination):

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017 ... congestion


* Let this small Monument record the name
of Cadman, and to future time proclaim
How by'n attempt to fly from this high spire
across the Sabrine stream he did acquire
His fatal end. 'Twas not for want of skill
Or courage to perform the task he fell,
No, no, a faulty Cord being drawn too tight
Harried his Soul on high to take her flight
Which bid the Body here beneath good Night
Feb.ry 2nd 1739 aged 28

[gaz]

Does anyone have figures for e-bike sales as a percentage of all bike sales in the UK for 2016? Or better still some figures over the last five years to allow some form of measurement of current rate of growth.

[horizon]

Does anyone have figures for e-bike sales as a percentage of all bike sales in the UK for 2016? Or better still some figures over the last five years to allow some form of measurement of current rate of growth.

It's very small:

E-Bikeshop is part of the UK Electric Bike Company Ltd. According to director Martin Brown 2016 e-bike sales in the UK is estimated at 30 – 35,000 units.

That's about 1% of the 3m bikes sold each year in the UK a million of which are children's bikes.

Growth is projected at 20% from this very low base. But the very low figure at the moment is why I'm making a fuss about my prediction - it's quite bold (others might describe it differently )

[reohn2]

Does anyone have figures for e-bike sales as a percentage of all bike sales in the UK for 2016? Or better still some figures over the last five years to allow some form of measurement of current rate of growth.

It's very small:

E-Bikeshop is part of the UK Electric Bike Company Ltd. According to director Martin Brown 2016 e-bike sales in the UK is estimated at 30 – 35,000 units.

That's about 1% of the 3m bikes sold each year in the UK a million of which are children's bikes.

Growth is projected at 20% from this very low base. But the very low figure at the moment is why I'm making a fuss about my prediction - it's quite bold (others might describe it differently )

Taking the approx 1million child bike sales out of the equation,leaving a remaining 2million other sales,I'd say in 5years time of that 2million absolute maximum 40% will be e-bikes

[horizon]

Taking the approx 1million child bike sales out of the equation,leaving a remaining 2million other sales,I'd say in 5years time of that 2million absolute maximum 40% will be e-bikes

I agree about taking the children's bikes out - I accept the argument that they would be illegal and it is thus just speculation as to what will happen in the real world. We can also take out Northern Ireland as EAPCs are currently classed as motorbikes there. Also, my predicition relies on there being no change in the legal status of EAPCs.

I'm not too fussed about the 40% figure - I think most people are agreed that ebikes (EAPCs) will be significant. What I am predicting though is something else: it is the point at which a bicycle is no longer an object without some sort of motive power - a new normality if you like. I suppose in the same way that a telephone is normal or a car is normal relative to a horse and a carriage. Or that everyone in the office charges their smart phones at their desk. I've put a figure of 90% on that to reflect the new normality - I might be out by a few per cent of course.

[mercalia]

Interesting pic here from the Leodis photographic archive. Look closely and the cyclist in the middle of the picture has a bike with a motor built into the back wheel. Several of the later comments discuss the specific type of motor. I don't think we had cusps in Leeds way back in 1955, and this never made it onto one anyway

http://www.leodis.net/display.aspx?reso ... SPLAY=FULL

'

My father had one of those - is a 25cc petrol engine. Cant remember the name ah Cyclemaster I think



I would really love one of those things

I think you could just buy the wheel and put it in any bike you had

I think one of the far east companies that made scooters also had one with a motor in the wheel that looked that that - my uncle had one. I hoped to inherit it but seems like I didnt

[reohn2]

........ I've put a figure of 90% on that to reflect the new normality - I might be out by a few per cent of course.

I'm reckoning you'll be out by 50%,but I may be out by a few percent myself

[Vorpal]

There are millions of e-bikes in China. They aren't a revolution there. They're a primary form of transport.

They have passed 10% of market share in several European countries, so I can imagine that horizon's revolution isn't so far away in some places. I think it would be overly optimistic to expect it int he UK in the next few years, though.

[thirdcrank]

There are millions of e-bikes in China. ... .

Is there a link?

BTW, There are nine million bicycles in Beijing. That's a fact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHQG6-DojVw

[Vorpal]

http://www.businessinsider.com/ebike-sa ... &IR=T&IR=T

If you scroll down to the chart, you will see that Asia-Pacific has it's own scale on the right hand side. Most of those sales are in China.

According to http://www.lifegate.com/people/lifestyle/e-bike-sales 32 million e-bikes have been sold in China, which is 90% of the world market.

[PH]

That's about 1% of the 3m bikes sold each year in the UK a million of which are children's bikes.
Growth is projected at 20% from this very low base. But the very low figure at the moment is why I'm making a fuss about my prediction - it's quite bold (others might describe it differently )

Statistics without analysis are always to be treated with caution and I don't think we have the data to make these meaningful. IMO it would need to exclude those bikes bought for things the electric bike isn't appropriate for - sport, fitness, children. Then exclude those consumers on a limited budget who didn't have the option. I'd also leave out those who bought a bike on a whim and are unlikely to use it more than occasionally, on the theory that those who make such a large purchase may have done so with more consideration. Anyone care to guess what proportion of bikes left would have be electric? Just from casual observations locally I'd but it at somewhere between 15 - 20% (nearly 25% of the bikes bought on my works Cycle Scheme were electric)
The interesting thing for me is not what percentage of future bike sales are electric, but the proportion of journeys they will be used for. This is increasing at a speed I would call revolutionary, I rarely go a day without seeing several, nearly every time I park my bike somewhere with ten or more others, at least one will be electric. I've had several conversations with people wanting to know what sort of motor my Rohloff is! Whatever the percentages, present or future, they have become a recognised part of the transport mix. I also know from my local CTC group, how much they've become a part of leisure riding. Though the difference between the two is the transport option seems to be one of choice and the alternative may not be a non assisted bike, while all those I know using electric for leisure are doing so instead on a non assisted bike to extend their options. In both cases it is IMO very good news.