On the cusp of cycling's greatest revolution

[Cyril Haearn]

It will not be so different in five years, maybe in fifty IMHO

I bought my Gillott 35 years ago and plan my last ride on it in 35 years, I will be 93, no motor, 59" fixed

Proper/ordinary/classic bikes without motors will always be much simpler and cheaper and lighter than motorised ones

Just made a mental note to check this thread again in 2022

[PH]

I also think that electric bikes will soon make up a high proportion of bikes bought, but that it'll be a percentage of a much higher overall volume.
It is a revolution in travel, though those who cycle for reasons other than that will still be buying bikes that fulfil their criteria.

[horizon]

I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.

Current legislation does not allow persons under 14 years of age to ride an EPAC. Do you anticipate a change in legislation, or would you care to revise your figure?

Upwards - I hadn't even thought about youngsters. You have to be 14 to ride an EAPC on the road. That I presume leaves all the Sustrans paths, cycle routes, canals and even maybe shared paths. You can have a much lower powered motor for the five year olds. A young person on a bike without a motor - I don't think so! Many of us thought that ten year olds wouldn't get mobile phones.

[Cyril Haearn]

I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.

Current legislation does not allow persons under 14 years of age to ride an EPAC. Do you anticipate a change in legislation, or would you care to revise your figure?

One really hopes the legislation will not be *relaxed*

Young fit people do not need motors, they should use and develop their muscles, otherwise there will be even more unhealthy people later

Speeds will increase if more powered machines are used, - 99

Read a piece about the invention of the freewheel: *soon, all cycles had a freewheel*. Not true of course, for many situations a fixed is better, just the same here

[gaz]

I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.

Current legislation does not allow persons under 14 years of age to ride an EPAC. Do you anticipate a change in legislation, or would you care to revise your figure?

One really hopes the legislation will not be *relaxed*

There's no need to relax such legislation to achieve horizon's goal. You could tighten it considerably instead, e.g. Ban the sale of cycles constructed for U14s, ban the use of unpowered cycles on public roads leaving them as the preserve of athletes riding either on purpose built tracks or in velodromes.

[Cyril Haearn]

I am estimating that 90% of bike sales will be battery powered within 5 years and that seeing someone on an unpowered bicycle will become an oddity.

Current legislation does not allow persons under 14 years of age to ride an EPAC. Do you anticipate a change in legislation, or would you care to revise your figure?

One really hopes the legislation will not be *relaxed*

There's no need to relax such legislation to achieve horizon's goal. You could tighten it considerably instead, e.g. Ban the sale of cycles constructed for U14s, ban the use of unpowered cycles on public roads leaving them as the preserve of athletes riding either on purpose built tracks or in velodromes.

Does horizon mean goal (desireable) or prediction, forecast, speculation?

[squeaker]

My prediction is that within five years, a non-powered bicycle will be as quaint as someone using a candle to light their way.

Unlikely, IMHO. Why? UCI (who have essentially frozen bicycle design)

[horizon]

Does horizon mean goal (desirable) or prediction, forecast, speculation?

Thanks for asking for the clarification. I absolutely mean prediction or forecast which of course in this case is speculation (but well-founded speculation at that). I am also talking about EAPCs (electrically assisted pedal cycles).

As regards my own views on it, I believe it will be on the whole good in that it might draw many people out of their cars. And for some individuals an EAPC will be blessing. But I don't think it will be good for cycling.

By the way, I'm very sensitive about being criticised for being a purist (which I am not) so I want to leave to others to debate whether it is a good thing or not. This thread for me is about the validity of the prediction.

[reohn2]

......... This thread for me is about the validity of the prediction.

Ive just realised in my previous post I only gave a reason why cycling won't increase past a determined minority.
So to add to that but also because of the cycling infrastructure in the UK,the cost of quality reliable EAPC's will put a dithering populous,who aren't altogether convinced about cycling,off them.Outlay needs to be upward of £1200 for anything decent and unless its put to good use it's dead money for most.

[irc]

As regards my own views on it, I believe it will be on the whole good in that it might draw many people out of their cars.

I don't think it will. Once most people learn to drive, get a car, get insured, sign up for a monthly loan/PCP/lease payment, tax it, and MOT it they are going to keep on using it. I've got 4 bikes in my shed. I still drive to the supermarket less than 2 miles away. Why? I can carry a bigger load. I don't need to don waterproofs. I can stick the dog in the car and walk her in the park adjacent to the supermarket. Everyone has their own reaons but once they have invested time and money in a car it will take more than an E-bike to get them out it.

Another thing is insurance. Given the replacement cost of my bikes and the fact I don't routinely park them for long periods in urban areas I don't need to insure them. An E-bike worth £2000 replacing peoples car journeys would be a theft target due to value and more at risk due to being parked in town for long periods. What would insurance cost?

Bicycle convenience will never match the car in many places the obvious exception being inner cities.

E-bikes in 5 years time? I'll be amazed if they are more than 10% of the market.

[jgurney]

Upwards - I hadn't even thought about youngsters. You have to be 14 to ride an EAPC on the road. That I presume leaves all the Sustrans paths, cycle routes, canals .....

It does not, any more than under-14's can ride motorcycles in those places. 'Road' in the context above does not mean 'place where motor vehicles go', but means 'places where the public can go by any means'. A person under 14 can ride an EAPC in the same circumstances that they can ride a motorcycle - on private property without public access, with the landowners agreement.

[meic]

I cant see that the law would be either written or interpreted in that way.
That the same vehicle which is a cycle when ridden by an adult becomes a motorcycle when ridden by a child.
Though the law often is an ass, I would expect it wasnt that much of an ass.

More likely there is a separate regulation banning its use by under 14's, rather than it reverting to a motorcycle when they get on it.

In effect it would still be forbidden on Sustrans tracks but not because it is a "motorcycle".

[thirdcrank]

Probably my poor observation skills but I can only think of one person who I could point to as the user of one of these. It's one of the chaps who deals with things like trolleys at our local Asda. Perhaps a dozen years ago he showed me his when I was fastening my shopping bike up there and I still regularly see him riding it home along the A650. I didn't ask what had caused him to buy one.

As I'm typing, it occurs to me that my boyhood hero, TdeF pioneer Brian Robinson was said to ride one so he could still get out with fellow club riders. He's now 86 BTW.

Who else will buy them? Teenagers who can't wait for a moped or a car? I see that ads for cycle carriers generally say whether they can carry an electric bike so there's probably a market among people who drive to a Sustrans route with their bikes on a roofrack. I'm at a loss to identify a mass market.

[meic]

Teenagers who can't wait for a moped or a car?

You would expect them to be the ideal target market.
Out here in rural Wales there is a big problem for school leavers trying to get to the various FE colleges.
Even on reaching 16/17 the motor insurance premiums are exorbitant.
Cycling is dismissed as too difficult because of the hills, but any recommendation of ebikes as a way of overcoming this hits a brick wall. I think the teenagers would rather be dead than be seen on a bike (even an ebike).
Parents are more easy to be blackmailed into acting as chauffeurs than expecting teenagers to independently take care of their own mobility needs.

[horizon]

I think Horizon is massively mistaken

i am not ttrying to catch you out, but this is a quote from a post of yours on a parallel thread:

IMO Ebikes/Ecycling needs a section of it's own and not an infringment this section.
I think Ebikes popularity is about to explode in the UK much as it's done in the rest of Europe.
To ignore it and try to lump it in with another section is to miss it's appeal as another facet of cycling in its own right IMO
My 2d's worth

I'm genuinely confused here and might have got the wrong end of the stick so a clarification would be good.