Catalonia: Democracy (European style)

[mercalia]

I think both sides are handling this badly. ....

maybe, but the Spanish govt wont countenance a referendum so they had no choice? The Scots would do the same if the uk govt refused? Its the intransigence of the Spanish that is the problem.

The Spanish have a long history of autocratic rule compared to eg the Uk?

Thinking about the comparison to Scotland: I wonder what would happen if, suppose from long term polls there was a clear Scottish majority against independence, then a flawed illegal referendum was held (flawed for whatever reason), then based on that flawed referendum the Scottish Gov. intended to declare independence (illegally). Would we expect the UK Government to just sit and watch? Ok, rephrasing that, with any leader other than May, would we expect the UK Government to just sit and watch?

Ian

You can suppose anything you want? But the supposition is wrong - we have a mechanism for a referendum and cant happen. Suppose the Scotish part of the armed forces invaded England, Suppose they took hold of the nuclear subs and targeted England.. Suppose on. The reason why the Catalan referendum has been flawed because it has had to be out side the law with questions of would the law abiding Catalans take part and how many ballot papers were seized preventing a vote - it all goes back to the intransigence of the Spanish? You have to explain why in the Scotish case the discrepanacy between the polls and the vote - the discrepancy would have to be very large eg 70%+ dont want independance but the ref said 70% do? There would then be a lot of head scratching. If it turned out there was no skulduggery just that a lot were too lazy then.... tough luck on the lazy lot, they had their chance and decided not to exercise it? You dont have such as in the Catalan case the bloody mindedness of the Spanish to throw a spanner in the works? As I understand it some of those Catalans who dont want independence still want a referendum?

[Psamathe]

maybe, but the Spanish govt wont countenance a referendum so they had no choice? The Scots would do the same if the uk govt refused? Its the intransigence of the Spanish that is the problem.

The Spanish have a long history of autocratic rule compared to eg the Uk?

Thinking about the comparison to Scotland: I wonder what would happen if, suppose from long term polls there was a clear Scottish majority against independence, then a flawed illegal referendum was held (flawed for whatever reason), then based on that flawed referendum the Scottish Gov. intended to declare independence (illegally). Would we expect the UK Government to just sit and watch? Ok, rephrasing that, with any leader other than May, would we expect the UK Government to just sit and watch?

Ian

You can suppose anything you want? But the supposition is wrong - we have a mechanism for a referendum and cant happen. Suppose the Scotish part of the armed forces invaded England, Suppose they took hold of the nuclear subs and targeted England.. Suppose on. The reason why the Catalan referendum has been flawed because it has had to be out side the law with questions of would the law abiding Catalans take part and how many ballot papers were seized preventing a vote - it all goes back to the intransigence of the Spanish? You have to explain why in the Scotish case the discrepanacy between the polls and the vote? You dont have such as in the Catalan case the bloody mindedness of the Spanish?

In what way is my "supposition wrong". Read what I wrote and I was creating a hypothetical question for consideration - I was not saying what would happen. And where do you get the Scottish armed forces invading England ... unbelievable. And where do you get the Scottish taking control of nuclear weapons and targeting England .... wow and all from my wondering how the UK Gov would react were Scotland to declare independence after an illegal flawed referendum.

I was wondering what the UK Gov. would do under similar circumstances to the Spanish Gov. in the future (i.e. were Scotland to declare independence following a flawed referendum). I was deliberately not raising the consideration as to why the referendum was flawed (note I explicitly said "flawed for whatever reason").

And to what extent is it "bloody mindedness of the Spanish?" or "the intransigence of the Spanish". As I've seen it reported, such a referendum is not allowed under the Spanish Constitution. So I would guess a Spanish Government cannot suddenly decide to ignore the constitution just like that. I'd guess they'd need to make some changes to their constitution before they could allow a referendum and I have no idea what that would involve for Spain. If it were a matter of the Government in power just deciding to ignore the constitution there would seem little point in having a Constitution to begin with.

(I'm not defending anybody or either side. Just that in terms of countries I understand I think there is a lot of blame and stupidity on both sides).

Ian

[mercalia]

I am querying your idea of a flawed referendum in Scotland, you dont say why it was flawed, you cant just say it was to take it seriously rather than a what-if game(as a supposition you can but only in the same way as my ones about the Scottish armed forces, ie no how and why it came about) - I doubt can happen in Scotland atleast for the reasons that the Catalan one is/was. As for "the law" I doubt the Spanish would ever permit a referendum, its not in their mindset they just dont give up any land eg Gibraltar( been ours now for 300 years!!!! they are quite happy having their 2 colonies in north africa but wont accept well we have ours in Gib )

"In an interview with El País on Sunday, Mariano Rajoy said the thousands of Guardia Civil and national police officers deployed in Catalonia would remain there “until things return to normal” and repeated calls for the regional government to drop its independence demands.
“We’re going to stop independence from happening,” he told the paper. “I can say with absolute frankness that it’s not going to happen. Depending on how things develop, we’ll obviously take any of the decisions the law permits."" the BBC

"The law" has always protected the establishment or status quo and used by the establishment ( vested interests ) to justify their actions ( in the past even God was brought into it?) , and thats what we see in Spain - The difference between the Uk and Spain is that Spain is more inflexible and the elites there wont budge: Spain is in the postion re the ref where we were with universal suffrage in the early 1900's where it wasnt legal for women to vote so they had to act out side the law some what until the goodsense of the British people prevailed?

[Psamathe]

I am querying your idea of a flawed referendum in Scotland, you dont say why it was flawed, you cant just say it was to take it seriously rather than a what-if game(as a supposition you can but only in the same way as my ones about the Scottish armed forces, ie no how and why it came about) - I doubt can happen in Scotland atleast for the reasons that the Catalan one is/was. As for "the law" I doubt the Spanish would ever permit a referendum, its not in their mindset they just dont give up any land eg Gibraltar( been ours now for 300 years!!!! they are quite happy having their 2 colonies in north africa but wont accept well we have ours in Gib :roll: )
....

The Catalan referendum result was to me not necessarily representative of the wishes of the electorate. Polling stations closed, declared illegal by the courts (so maybe many in favour of remaining part of Spain decided not to face the challenges of going to vote). When I say flawed I mean where for any reason the result clearly does not represent the wishes of the electorate.

I was wondering if the Scottish Government behaved like the Catalan Government, would the UK Government just ignore what they were doing or would they respond and e.g. try and prevent an illegal declaration of independence.

Seems to me that there are many independent aspects to this situation. e.g. Spanish Constitution: Assuming the Spanish Government cannot just ignore their own constitution on a whim, then questions about whether the Spanish Gov. would or would not allow such a referendum become academic - they legally cannot without changing the constitution. So much then depends on how Spain might change it's constitution, can the Spanish Government allow the region further devolved powers, etc.

I wonder if the Catalan Government are actually pursuing the best route for the region to gain greater autonomy. Running an illegal referendum giving a flawed result and then (by the sounds of their intention) declaring independence illegally based on that referendum result is bound to fail and just antagonise everybody (and not help the region much). Might be they would be better pursuing more devolved powers, etc. which might be achievable.

I do wonder if the Catalan Government realise that what they are doing will not actually give them independence and that it's more of a campaign to goad Spain into "pushing them around" which might create more negative feeling against Spain in the region. i.e. political game playing going on.

Ian

[Ben@Forest]

Article 1 of the UN Charter states one of its purposes is:

To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples...

Although Catalonia hasn't been independent since the 12th century it was (united through marriage) part of the Kingdom of Aragon until 1714, when it was finally overrun by the Kingdom of Spain. So actually Catalonia has been part of Spain for less time than the Act of Union brought England and Scotland together. And the Act of Union was a political act - not the result of a war.

I think there's every right that Catalonia be considered a country rather than an inalienable part of Spain.

[Cyril Haearn]

One reads conflicting claims about how many want independence, turnout etc

I think there is no need to make a decision or UDI now, they could wait awhile until things calm down or resolve themselves

BTW there is incessant coverage of this in the media. Is anything happening to the Rohingya or in North Korea? What about the coalition negotiations in Germany?

[landsurfer]

Press / Govt distraction in progress ???

[Ben@Forest]

BTW there is incessant coverage of this in the media. Is anything happening to the Rohingya or in North Korea? What about the coalition negotiations in Germany?

Because there's the possibility that UDI may happen - if it does it'll be a big, big European story and media commentators won't take their eyes off the ball until things seem more stable.

[Stevek76]

Running an illegal referendum

It's this bit, and the heavy handed response to it that bugs me. Spanish law may be different but from a UK perspective I struggle to see how any 'referendum' itself could be illegal.

The result will be, legally speaking, irrelevant of course. in the UK, the result of any referendum is legally irrelevant unless an act of parliament says otherwise (EU ref being a very good example of a referendum with a legally irrelevant result).

Taking this to extremes, if you're going to declare a referendum illegal, then surely so are surveys and opinion polls? After all, a referendum is basically an expensive opinion poll.

Presumably Madrid thought by interfering sufficiently it could reduce the political significance of the poll but can't help thinking they've simply lobbed petrol on the fire instead, would have been better to have let it happen and dismiss it as irrelevant and a waste of money by the catalonian government.

[Psamathe]

One reads conflicting claims about how many want independence, turnout etc

I think there is no need to make a decision or UDI now, they could wait awhile until things calm down or resolve themselves

BTW there is incessant coverage of this in the media. Is anything happening to the Rohingya or in North Korea? What about the coalition negotiations in Germany?

Yes. UK is "puppy dogging" it again

Britain ‘preparing for war with North Korea

British defence officials have reportedly been instructed to draw up plans in preparation for potential conflict with North Korea.

[Psamathe]

Running an illegal referendum

It's this bit, and the heavy handed response to it that bugs me. Spanish law may be different but from a UK perspective I struggle to see how any 'referendum' itself could be illegal.

The result will be, legally speaking, irrelevant of course. in the UK, the result of any referendum is legally irrelevant unless an act of parliament says otherwise (EU ref being a very good example of a referendum with a legally irrelevant result).

Taking this to extremes, if you're going to declare a referendum illegal, then surely so are surveys and opinion polls? After all, a referendum is basically an expensive opinion poll.
....

I think it is different from an opinion poll or survey in that (my understanding) is that the Catalan Gov. Bill for the referendum makes the result legally binding and says that if passed Catalonia will declare independence within 48 hrs of the result. At least that was definately in the draft Bill https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-catalonia/catalonia-to-split-from-spain-within-48-hours-of-secession-vote-referendum-draft-bill-idUSKBN19P1ZZ, and the Catalan President has stated prior to the referendum that the result was binding and repeated the 48 hrs. Thus I see it as a bit more than a poll or survey.

Ian

[Psamathe]

Intersting aspect and one I've not seen reported before

Despite claims by pro-independence campaigners that the EU would not want to lose a wealthy region that would rank 15th or 16th in the bloc in terms of GDP, Brussels has made clear that the region will not automatically become a member.

It would have to apply, and acceptance would require the agreement of every other EU member state – including Spain, which in 2014 threatened to veto an eventual Scottish accession bid precisely to discourage Catalan independence.

Ian

[Tangled Metal]

It's different to opinion polls in other ways. For example the Spanish constitution (UK doesn't have a written constitution AFAIK) read written and set up expressly to make it hard to split Spain up. That AIUI means the constitutional court ruled it was illegal. That makes the bill setting up the referendum with requirement that the regional government goes with the decision illegal.

[landsurfer]

I see the Grauniad has managed to get a terrorist in to comment on the Catalan situation.....

[Stevek76]

I think it is different from an opinion poll or survey in that (my understanding) is that the Catalan Gov. Bill for the referendum makes the result legally binding and says that if passed Catalonia will declare independence within 48 hrs of the result. At least that was definately in the draft Bill https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-catalonia/catalonia-to-split-from-spain-within-48-hours-of-secession-vote-referendum-draft-bill-idUSKBN19P1ZZ, and the Catalan President has stated prior to the referendum that the result was binding and repeated the 48 hrs. Thus I see it as a bit more than a poll or survey.

Ian

Perhaps, but then easier still to simply deem any such activities to be constitutionally irrelevant and if catalonia wishes to waste its time doing so then so be it. I still struggle to see what is fundamentally 'wrong' about the actual undertaking of the vote itself. If catalonia attempts to force public places to comply with their non legal bill to provide polling stations then that would be wrong, but if everything is willing then Madrid's response to it was simply stoking the fire.