What might be the effects of the rapidly increasing motor vehicle fuel costs?

[thirdcrank]

This is a bit like those "If you can't see my mirrors , I can't see you" stickers. If I can see a lorry in my rear view mirror but not the windscreen, I get a creepy feeling that the driver cannot see me. Far too many lorry drivers seem indifferent to stopping distances. Some also seem to lack the wit to understand when others leave a safe stopping distance and so get impatient when the vehicle they are following leaves a safe gap, even though it's being driven at the same speed as the vehicle in front.

If I'm not making it clear, this is the difference between being technically brilliant at manoeuvring a big vehicle and lacking the mental capacity to respect the safety of others.

[millimole]

Please fix this

This!
The car debate is so often led by urban dwellers who have no conception of the lack of public transport away from cities. Even in villages just outside of my home in Leicestershire they have no (zero) bus service - so to live there and shop/work/study they have no alternative to a car. Even I as a cycling advocate cannot see how using a bicycle in those areas would be a feasible alternative.
I'm currently on holiday on rural Devon where there are weekly bus services on odd days at odd times - which was probably fine in the 1950s but times have moved on. The roads are hostile to cycling, and the standards of driving are appalling.

We need a push to universal (or near as) public organised transport away from the wild west attitude of the private operators who introduce and drop services (and prices) on a whim.
I don't see price (of fuel) being much of a stick to the majority of motorists, but I do see excellence in public transport being something of a carrot.

I'm a trendy consumer. Just look at my wobbly using hovercraft full of eels.

[horizon]

Even I as a cycling advocate cannot see how using a bicycle in those areas would be a feasible alternative.

No-one's suggesting that. Here's a link about how one community solved the problem:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ses-witney

The point I would take issue with is that somehow rural dwellers are lost without their cars: their life style is built around the car. That's why there are no buses - they are not economical to run.

And I haven't even mentioned adding a bike rack to the bus!

[mjr]

Even I as a cycling advocate cannot see how using a bicycle in those areas would be a feasible alternative.

No-one's suggesting that. Here's a link about how one community solved the problem:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ses-witney

West Norfolk is mentioned there. I think it's an interesting case study of an area which probably isn't commercially viable to operate like a city bus company, but may be viable with a bit of business sense. Our bit of the old nationalised bus company became Eastern Counties. First bought it, swapped all our good buses for their old junk from other areas, then pulled out of West Norfolk because they couldn't make as much money as they want (a cynic would say the old junk was more expensive to operate so the purchase was mainly to get hold of the buses). So some local entrepreneurs started up Norfolk Green and things improved for a while. Innovative ticket prices and so on. Even through ticketing with some medium-distance services.

After a few years, Stagecoach bought Norfolk Green, swapped all our good buses for their other places' old junk, noisily bought a few shiny new buses (in Stagecoach livery not green), then pretty soon after pulled out of West Norfolk because they couldn't make as much money as they want (a cynic would suspect they were still paying off the new buses, which were transferred to other depots rather than sold to the new operators).

When Stagecoach started to cut back before they pulled out, some local entrepreneurs started up Coastal Red, which runs buses called "lynx" with a very similar marketing approach to Norfolk Green (the typical local sense of humour, witty slogans on the buses, chatty social media and so on) - but they didn't want some of the old First/Stagecoach routes, including most suburban ones, so West Norfolk Community Transport WNCT have recently taken over those, running as "Go to Town", taking on I think two new depots to house many more full-size buses. Things have improved in some ways - we can now use Norfolk's oyster-style smartcard on most services - but not in others - some times and routes have been cut.

Now I wonder what will happen when Coastal Red's founders want to sell. Stagecoach or First have both messed the bed somewhat here. I'm not sure whether Go-Ahead or Arriva would want it without trying to become a monopoly like they do in most towns - and I suspect they can't easily buy a community-owned registered charity like WNCT. Maybe WNCT could sell the "Go to Town" brand to them, but it's difficult to see why the community owners would regard that as desirable.

The point I would take issue with is that somehow rural dwellers are lost without their cars: their life style is built around the car. That's why there are no buses - they are not economical to run.

Indeed. Sooner or later, we're going to have to rebuild our lifestyles. Even if we dodge the fossil fuel problem by taking advantage of rural space for solar/wind power directly charging electric vehicles, roads cannot be expanded infinitely and cars are a very poor use of road space.

I strongly suspect part of the solution is neither buses (which will never be economical to run to all small villages) nor bikes (which few will want to do the longer distances on), but cycling to the bus, then either parking securely or folding and taking it with you - which means decent large luggage spaces on rural services, which we don't always have (but lynx and WNCT seem to, as does our one remaining long-distance First service).

And I haven't even mentioned adding a bike rack to the bus!

It seems like someone will have to give the DVSA a good kicking before they'll allow it, as discussed in https://cyclebath.org.uk/2015/06/04/fro ... a-says-no/

[Lawrie9]

I think we can safely say the party's over and the high fuel costs are likely to change every aspect of society and they way we live

[ThePinkOne]

My daughter has just ensured that my mother got on her train from Bridgend to Manchester Piccadilly where she will be met by my brother. My daughter is upset because she had to leave my Mum, 85 with a pacemaker and not good on her feet, standing in a ram packed train with her small case beside her. Next time I will drive her.

And I think this highlights the difficulty, and the already overcrowded and often poor conditions on trains.

Also.......

At the moment, average 75% of journeys by car, 5% by train (from BBC website).

Trains are already full, so what happens if car journeys drop by 10% and those people get the train instead?

For 40 years we have built society around the car. Changing that is a 10 to 20 year strategy with a mix of transport investment in carrots plus sticks later on. It would need means of reducing need for journeys by having more deliveries or local shops, and more local work or work from home.
?
Increasing the cost of using a car is a bit like increasing rent, those with few realistic options suffer most. And of course those two things are not entirely unrelated as the only way to afford a roof over one's head may be to have a long commute by car.........

If we want to decrease car use, merely raising the price won't do much..... Needs a much more sophisticated long term approach.

TPO

[thirdcrank]

... If we want to decrease car use, merely raising the price won't do much..... Needs a much more sophisticated long term approach.

This is no longer about tinkering with policy with a few p on fuel duty etc. It's a matter of time till many of those journeys now made by car will be much less attractive. It's true that they cannot all be transferred to public transport and the answer is that fewer will be made. Long commutes, second homes and all the rest of it will be much less common.

The point that the alternatives wouldn't work or couldn't cope doesn't guarantee continuation of private motor transport.

[Cyril Haearn]

I work in a Small Town (9 000 inmates) between a City and a Metropolis
Although the Metropolis has many lucrative jobs, many colleagues drive against the flow to work in the Small Town
A few coworkers live in the Small Town and drive to work, 2-3 km! Should this be banned?

Many people who live in the Small Town go to the City or the Metropolis every day to work

Driving to work every day is so attractive, people don't bother with the cost

Buying a house a bit further out is cheaper, senior employees do this and drive to work every day for decades

It would be much better for the firm to employ people who live in the Small Town, they could be paid less, +1

[Vorpal]

While it is true that alternatives to driving need to be enabled, if people are diriving less, they will put more political pressure on government to enable alternatives.

[Cyril Haearn]

I think we can safely say the party's over and the high fuel costs are likely to change every aspect of society and they way we live

Such statements have been made often since the 1970s or earlier
I just read that freight traffic is expected to increase by 40% in the next seven years

[thirdcrank]

They'll put pressure on governments for sure, but they won't all be in a position to respond in a way people might like.

[reohn2]

Even I as a cycling advocate cannot see how using a bicycle in those areas would be a feasible alternative.

No-one's suggesting that. Here's a link about how one community solved the problem:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ses-witney

The point I would take issue with is that somehow rural dwellers are lost without their cars: their life style is built around the car. That's why there are no buses - they are not economical to run.

And I haven't even mentioned adding a bike rack to the bus!

Expand the concept in the Guardian article to the whole country and you have what was before Thatcher privatised the bus services.No one can run any for profit bus(or train FTM) service cheaper than the same service run as a not for profit service.
The key word is "service" if it's regular,reliable,clean,and affordable it will get used and people will favour it to the car,especially if the car is handicapped by parking charges and the inability to park near to where people want to go.

[reohn2]

While it is true that alternatives to driving need to be enabled, if people are diriving less, they will put more political pressure on government to enable alternatives.

Agreed.
IMO a cross party strategy of transport needs for the country needs to be sorted out and fully explained to the people that on the present course we simply cannot sustain.
Some radical answers are needed especially in the larger towns and cities.The fully implications need pointing out from a health,resources,and cost perspective.The people need to be got on board(sorry)of a public transport strategy and a reeling in of the (big) car culture that prevails in a small group of islands off the European coast.
We can surely do better than this If we put our minds to it,but it needs explaining in clear terms how bad things have become in what is a very short space of time.

[pwa]

My daughter has just ensured that my mother got on her train from Bridgend to Manchester Piccadilly where she will be met by my brother. My daughter is upset because she had to leave my Mum, 85 with a pacemaker and not good on her feet, standing in a ram packed train with her small case beside her. Next time I will drive her.

And I think this highlights the difficulty, and the already overcrowded and often poor conditions on trains.

Also.......

At the moment, average 75% of journeys by car, 5% by train (from BBC website).

Trains are already full, so what happens if car journeys drop by 10% and those people get the train instead?

For 40 years we have built society around the car. Changing that is a 10 to 20 year strategy with a mix of transport investment in carrots plus sticks later on. It would need means of reducing need for journeys by having more deliveries or local shops, and more local work or work from home.
?
Increasing the cost of using a car is a bit like increasing rent, those with few realistic options suffer most. And of course those two things are not entirely unrelated as the only way to afford a roof over one's head may be to have a long commute by car.........

If we want to decrease car use, merely raising the price won't do much..... Needs a much more sophisticated long term approach.

TPO

A thoughtful analysis and I think it captures my thoughts. None of us individually made the situation and our society is built the way it is because of many decades of development.

And while you wouldn't think it if you got all your views from this Forum, cars have plus points. If they didn't they wouldn't be so popular. If I wanted to visit Hay on Wye today I could not do it by public transport. I could by car. Cycling there would be a bit epic, and I have done it, but for "transport", just getting there to do stuff when I arrive, it isn't a goer. The car frees me to do that.

My daughter has just had an emergency call from an acting agency asking if she is available for a day's filming, and my wife is going to take her in the car. Again, at such short notice that would not be possible without a car. Some car use is essential. Some, not all. But higher fuel prices might help some of us to focus on whether there are better choices, or whether a journey really matters or could be avoided.

[reohn2]

Our local train station is 21/2miles away and there is no bus service to it without the need for a 1mile long walk.
Around the station for 400m distance the streets are clogged up with commuter's cars parked there all day.