Canuk wrote:I read this morning that Eddie Stobart had contributed to a measly 80 truck 'stress test' in the event of a no deal crash out on the 29th. It didn't quite go as planned...
Some people are still maintaining that a no deal exit on WTO trade terms will have no deleterious everyday effects on the uk and the economy (chiefly BoJo). This is just bonkers. It takes roughly 4 minutes to process a truck at Dover currently. Should no deal be the outcome, that will increase to 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day.
Thats equivalent to a 520 day long backlog...
There are hardly words to describe the carnage and chaos to follow.
In 24 hours:- A truck every 4minutes at Dover = 360 Every 80 minutes = 18 Backlog = 342 per day
Last edited by reohn2 on 7 Jan 2019, 10:31am, edited 1 time in total.
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"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
Canuk wrote:Should no deal be the outcome, that will increase to 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day.
Why will it take that long? It didn't before we were in the EU, it doesn't for cargo coming from outside the EU, The scare story was originally 40 minutes, why has it doubled, were people not scared enough?
How long did it take in the sixties? How big were the trucks then compared to now? How stringent were the checks compared to now? How long do trucks take to cross the simpler Swiss border.
I went through a few borders last year. It takes long enough to check a small bus and then the contents holds its paperwork which is simpler and can walk itself. 80 minutes for a much bigger vehicle with stuff that can't move itself seems believable but better evidence welcome.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
mjr wrote:I went through a few borders last year. It takes long enough to check a small bus and then the contents holds its paperwork which is simpler and can walk itself. 80 minutes for a much bigger vehicle with stuff that can't move itself seems believable but better evidence welcome.
I remember being in Gibraltar some years ago. We weren't actually visiting Gibraltar itself, we were on a package tour to a resort in Andalucia and Gibraltar was just our arrival airport. So we were all shepherded onto this bus which then drove us about 200 yards from the airport to the frontier. At which point we were all ordered to alight and walk to the frontier posts to have our papers checked. Meanwhile the bus edged forward the few yards, and once we'd all been processed we re-boarded the same bus. And I remember, this all happened in a torrential downpour (unusual for Gibraltar).
Will it be like this for us at every European frontier? Or worse?
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity. Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments... --- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).
mjr wrote:How long did it take in the sixties? How big were the trucks then compared to now?
I grew up in Kent, some years just outside Dover, the trucks which in my childhood memory were as big as todays, would be on the road within minutes of the ferry docking.
How stringent were the checks compared to now?
There are no checks now? How complicated it's made has yet to be decided, but there's no reason for it to be so. Until recently I worked for a logistics company importing from around the World, the paperwork wasn't done at the ports, trailers and containers would arrive in the Midlands sealed.
Canuk wrote:I read this morning that Eddie Stobart had contributed to a measly 80 truck 'stress test' in the event of a no deal crash out on the 29th. It didn't quite go as planned...
Some people are still maintaining that a no deal exit on WTO trade terms will have no deleterious everyday effects on the uk and the economy (chiefly BoJo). This is just bonkers. It takes roughly 4 minutes to process a truck at Dover currently. Should no deal be the outcome, that will increase to 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day.
Thats equivalent to a 520 day long backlog...
There are hardly words to describe the carnage and chaos to follow.
In 24 hours:- A truck every 4minutes at Dover = 360 Every 80 minutes = 18 Backlog = 342 per day
Not quite. It currently takes 4 minutes to do a customs check on a truck for intra EU transit. Out of the EU on the 29th with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day leaving British ports. I've already done the math above. The EU will impose the strictest 'Third Country' checks, which in terms of scrutiny I would rate as 'comprehensive'. Hence the time required.
And that's assuming the French and the Dutch authorities don't try and aggravate things the other side (which in all likelihood they will). And it's also not taking into the account the fact the Gilets Jaunes movement might not take advantage of the situation at French ports. A blockade for example, given the chaos existing in Britain would be very easy to put in place.
mjr wrote:I went through a few borders last year. It takes long enough to check a small bus and then the contents holds its paperwork which is simpler and can walk itself. 80 minutes for a much bigger vehicle with stuff that can't move itself seems believable but better evidence welcome.
I remember being in Gibraltar some years ago. We weren't actually visiting Gibraltar itself, we were on a package tour to a resort in Andalucia and Gibraltar was just our arrival airport. So we were all shepherded onto this bus which then drove us about 200 yards from the airport to the frontier. At which point we were all ordered to alight and walk to the frontier posts to have our papers checked. Meanwhile the bus edged forward the few yards, and once we'd all been processed we re-boarded the same bus. And I remember, this all happened in a torrential downpour (unusual for Gibraltar).
Will it be like this for us at every European frontier? Or worse?
It already happens at other frontiers of the EU. A process as described above happened to us at the Croatian border post and then a couple of miles later at the Montenegrin border post; similarly as I reentered the EU, first we got checked by the Serbian border guards, then again by the Hungarian - but at least that time we were on a train and remained aboard as the armed border guards walked through checking papers. But trains are bigger and I think that took nearly an hour each time.
So, this will be coming soon to the UK-EU frontiers unless we agree some sort of deal. Basically, bye bye to any ability to use yellow-star gates at ports and expect the border controls on Eurostars and Eurotunnel to double.
It's probably dwarfed by what an increase on checks will do to freight, though.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
mjr wrote:How long did it take in the sixties? How big were the trucks then compared to now?
I grew up in Kent, some years just outside Dover, the trucks which in my childhood memory were as big as todays, would be on the road within minutes of the ferry docking.
Yeaaaaah, that's coming in. What about going out?
PH wrote:
How stringent were the checks compared to now?
There are no checks now? How complicated it's made has yet to be decided, but there's no reason for it to be so. Until recently I worked for a logistics company importing from around the World, the paperwork wasn't done at the ports, trailers and containers would arrive in the Midlands sealed.
There are checks but not on stuff going to the EU like at Dover. I think you know what I meant: how stringent are the checks on stuff leaving for countries we trade with on WTO terms?
There's no reason for it to be painful, but some seem determined on rejecting all deals that would make it less so. The UK cannot unilaterally not check what's crossing its borders without suffering tit-for-tat measures from other countries and surely unpoliced borders is not what Leavers voted for?
So who checked the paper and unsealed the containers? And what happened to stuff going out? Do those systems have the capacity to scale up to cover at least double the traffic? And what proportion of UK-EU freight is containerised?
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
Now May is promising a Trade deal by 2021-22. That's essentially 3 years from March. I'm sure this must have 1000's of businesses pulling their collective hair out.
Going to be a lot of bald self employed by the time this fiasco is concluded.
Canuk wrote:Now May is promising a Trade deal by 2021-22. That's essentially 3 years from March. I'm sure this must have 1000's of businesses pulling their collective hair out.
Going to be a lot of bald self employed by the time this fiasco is concluded.
havent seen that one. I want to tear my hair out that why oh why she wasted 2 years over nothing when she knew or should have that the Good Friday Agreement would cast a long shadow over any Brexit and she should have refused any legally binding backstop that puts the UK at a disadvantage
mjr wrote:There's no reason for it to be painful, but some seem determined on rejecting all deals that would make it less so.
That is sadly the way it is. Most of the extra admin will be done away from the port, that's the way it's always been, what's happening at the port is a check that the paperwork is in order and sometimes checks that the load matches the paperwork. The hardest hit are those haulage companies who specialise in groupage rather than full loads, they might have 20+ consignments on the same trailer.
Canuk wrote:I read this morning that Eddie Stobart had contributed to a measly 80 truck 'stress test' in the event of a no deal crash out on the 29th. It didn't quite go as planned...
Some people are still maintaining that a no deal exit on WTO trade terms will have no deleterious everyday effects on the uk and the economy (chiefly BoJo). This is just bonkers. It takes roughly 4 minutes to process a truck at Dover currently. Should no deal be the outcome, that will increase to 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day.
Thats equivalent to a 520 day long backlog...
There are hardly words to describe the carnage and chaos to follow.
In 24 hours:- A truck every 4minutes at Dover = 360 Every 80 minutes = 18 Backlog = 342 per day
Not quite. It currently takes 4 minutes to do a customs check on a truck for intra EU transit. Out of the EU on the 29th with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day leaving British ports. I've already done the math above. The EU will impose the strictest 'Third Country' checks, which in terms of scrutiny I would rate as 'comprehensive'. Hence the time required.
And that's assuming the French and the Dutch authorities don't try and aggravate things the other side (which in all likelihood they will). And it's also not taking into the account the fact the Gilets Jaunes movement might not take advantage of the situation at French ports. A blockade for example, given the chaos existing in Britain would be very easy to put in place.
Unspeakable chaos doesn't even touch the sides.
You initially said Dover Is there really 10,000 trucks a day leaving UK ports?
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"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
