It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

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What happens next

Poll ended at 29 Mar 2019, 7:42pm

1. Glittering new world future for the UK
6
13%
2. The world welcomes trade with UK with open arms
7
16%
3. Slow, withering break up of the United Kingdom
15
33%
4. Rapid descent into unspeakable chaos
8
18%
5. Civil unrest resulting in martial law
1
2%
6. People's revolution on the streets, whole thing turned over
0
No votes
7. Don't know, no ideas.
8
18%
 
Total votes: 45

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bovlomov
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by bovlomov »

PH wrote:
bovlomov wrote:Many of us knew at the time that Leave campaigners were making contradictory pledges, and that those pledges would mean nothing in the event of victory. Shame the media didn't think to shine a stronger light on them.

To be fair, just about every remain speech I heard extolled the idea of staying in and working for reform, but I've yet to see any appetite for any such reform from the EU with or without us.

But the EU has been reforming, continuously, often with the full participation of UK negotiators. And in some cases, the UK government has been the obstacle to reform.

I don't have rose-tinted specs when looking at the EU. There are loads of things it could do better. But I don't see how the EU could be expected to reform in accordance with the mad fantasies peddled by Farage and Johnson. What reform should the EU have undertaken?
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mjr
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by mjr »

PH wrote:
bovlomov wrote:Many of us knew at the time that Leave campaigners were making contradictory pledges, and that those pledges would mean nothing in the event of victory. Shame the media didn't think to shine a stronger light on them.

To be fair, just about every remain speech I heard extolled the idea of staying in and working for reform, but I've yet to see any appetite for any such reform from the EU with or without us.

Funny you should say that. I was just looking on the EU commission website for May's Deal to post to another topic (it's easier to find there than on the UK government website) and just above the Brexit banner is a huge "Future of Europe" banner linking to https://ec.europa.eu/commission/future-europe_en

Alongside Juncker's administration's first reforms, there's various consultations open about what to do next... but of course, there's no Citizen Dialogue for the UK because Leavers voted to strip us of our citizenship.

So there's plenty of appetite for reform, not that you'll hear it reported in UK press. Meanwhile, in the antique ossified UK parliament, we still don't even have proxy voting for people who have been advised by their doctors basically to be in hospital instead of the voting lobbies.
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Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Canuk »

On a side bar to the 'stockpiling' issue of food and medicines, a real world crisis should the uk fall out after the 29th with no deal, yesterday I closed both my British bank accounts on the advice of my accountant who is advising other expats to do so now. The prospect of having cash or pensions locked in the UK and no way of accessing them (even for a brief period) abroad has scared the living daylights out of most of the expats near me.

France is one of the EU countries who has still to give firm advice on residency, health care and taxes post 29th March (only 71 days away). If there is another referendum I don't think there's any legitimate way they can shut out the 1.3 million Brits from the vote. That's a scandal which deserves more heat and light.
francovendee
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by francovendee »

Canuk wrote:On a side bar to the 'stockpiling' issue of food and medicines, a real world crisis should the uk fall out after the 29th with no deal, yesterday I closed both my British bank accounts on the advice of my accountant who is advising other expats to do so now. The prospect of having cash or pensions locked in the UK and no way of accessing them (even for a brief period) abroad has scared the living daylights out of most of the expats near me.

France is one of the EU countries who has still to give firm advice on residency, health care and taxes post 29th March (only 71 days away). If there is another referendum I don't think there's any legitimate way they can shut out the 1.3 million Brits from the vote. That's a scandal which deserves more heat and light.


Interesting advice on bank accounts. I have a Natwest account registered to my French address and I'm not sure how I'd manage without it. Pension from the Gov't is paid into my French bank account in €'s but my private pension, paid in £'s , to my Natwest account. I'm not sure how I'd get around this if i only had the French account.
Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Canuk »

francovendee wrote:
Canuk wrote:On a side bar to the 'stockpiling' issue of food and medicines, a real world crisis should the uk fall out after the 29th with no deal, yesterday I closed both my British bank accounts on the advice of my accountant who is advising other expats to do so now. The prospect of having cash or pensions locked in the UK and no way of accessing them (even for a brief period) abroad has scared the living daylights out of most of the expats near me.

France is one of the EU countries who has still to give firm advice on residency, health care and taxes post 29th March (only 71 days away). If there is another referendum I don't think there's any legitimate way they can shut out the 1.3 million Brits from the vote. That's a scandal which deserves more heat and light.


Interesting advice on bank accounts. I have a Natwest account registered to my French address and I'm not sure how I'd manage without it. Pension from the Gov't is paid into my French bank account in €'s but my private pension, paid in £'s , to my Natwest account. I'm not sure how I'd get around this if i only had the French account.


Your Natwest account could be tricky. Access to it might be temporarily restricted, there's just no knowing what will happen in a no deal crash out, until it really happens. You could open a multi currency online account (which would give you much better currency transfer rates). There's loads of them, and they enable you to hold up to 10 different currencies with often low or no conversion rates between. I thought about opening an HSBC account here but apparently, like Santander, the British and European banks are completely separate, you couldn't even check your British balance in the bank. Crazy, but true.

I still know pensioners here who take their pension from a hole in the wall from their British accounts and take a 10% hit (plus a 3 euro fee) every time. It's crazy. But it's hard to explain to someone in their 80's there's a better way to do it.

If it was me, I would 'stockpile' all my revenue in a UK account and then just before things look toxic take it all to France via a company like Transferwise. When we bought our house here we did exactly this and saved nearly 4000 euro over standard bank transfer fees.
You could save a lot of money having your UK pension paid into a bordeless account. I've posted a handy guide below.

TransferWise also have a very easy to navigate app for your phone. The only checking they do is a scan of your passport to verify ID and then your good to go. I don't know how many of my elderly neighbours I've set this up for now, takes me 5 minutes but for some of them it's just beyond their imagination! I often get a knock at the door when things go awry, but that's what good neighbours are for!

https://www.transferguides.com/multi-currency-account/
Cours
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Cours »

+1 for Transferwise. We send money every month to our eldest who's studying in Strasbourg for a year. Saved a small fortune over regular bank transfers.

I do feel for pensioners abroad getting fleeced by banks over transfers. And the government still hasn't given firm advice on what will happen to their pensions. :roll:
Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Canuk »

This week will see the tabling (and likely passing) of two amendments. One to be tabled by the LibDems and the other to be tabled by Labour/tory alliance. The second amendment is virtually guaranteed to pass if it gets the support of the Labour front bench, which given their insistence on it, is a given.

1. That a vote on a 2nd referendum be put before this house before 29th March. (the LibDems have put forward a fast track referendum process guaranteeing a 2nd referendum vote before the MEP elections in May).

2. That in the event of no deal being agreed upon by Parliament by the end of February, the UK will unilaterally apply for an A50 extension to allow either time for a General election, or a 2nd referendum.

The clock has run out on May and her deal. The above two amendments mean that Parliament will take back control of the Brexit process.

There's also the option to unilaterally cancel A50 before the 29th.
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Canuk wrote:This week will see the tabling (and likely passing) of two amendments. One to be tabled by the LibDems and the other to be tabled by Labour/tory alliance. The second amendment is virtually guaranteed to pass if it gets the support of the Labour front bench, which given their insistence on it, is a given.

1. That a vote on a 2nd referendum be put before this house before 29th March. (the LibDems have put forward a fast track referendum process guaranteeing a 2nd referendum vote before the MEP elections in May).

2. That in the event of no deal being agreed upon by Parliament by the end of February, the UK will unilaterally apply for an A50 extension to allow either time for a General election, or a 2nd referendum.

The clock has run out on May and her deal. The above two amendments mean that Parliament will take back control of the Brexit process.

There's also the option to unilaterally cancel A50 before the 29th.


But a few weeks let alone days in this climate is a long time and off course anything could happen.

My gut tells me that it will all come out in the wash and we will secure a deal before 29th, I.M.O. of course.
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Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Canuk »

There's a lot of hot air about, concerning restarting negotiations with the EU27, who seem determined not to do so. And for good reason.

On a cautionary note, if a renegotiation of the back stop and the withdrawal agreement were to be put in place, Britain runs the risk of opening the Pandoras box, where member states might want to renegotiate their deal also.

Thereby throwing the whole thing back into the abyss once more.

Either parliament accepts the deal as it is (unlikely), or there's an A50 extension (more likely) in order to either cobble together a Plan B, or another referendum.

Opening the negotiations again could be a disaster, for both sides.
Cours
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Cours »

Two months and one week till Brexit.

OMG how did it come to this! :cry:
Cyril Haearn
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Cyril Haearn »

Lichtenstein is not a member of the EU, it is very prosperous*

Maybe a Lichtenstein model could be tried for the UK

*the Dukedom has 38 000 inhabitants and no maternity hospital so many little Lichtensteiners are born abroad. L is the only state with only German as official language
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mjr
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by mjr »

Cyril Haearn wrote:Lichtenstein is not a member of the EU, it is very prosperous*

Maybe a Lichtenstein model could be tried for the UK

Same national anthem tune.

Isn't Lichtenstein in a customs union, though? So May's mad red line prevents it.
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Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Canuk »

mjr wrote:
Cyril Haearn wrote:Lichtenstein is not a member of the EU, it is very prosperous*

Maybe a Lichtenstein model could be tried for the UK

Same national anthem tune.

Isn't Lichtenstein in a customs union, though? So May's mad red line prevents it.


I'm pretty sure that's the end game for the elitists on the ERG: Britain as Luxembourg, a service based economy with low taxes, very low company tax, nipping away at the prosperity and strength of the euro.

Of course there won't be any workers rights or paid holidays (the default state in the US), and anything that's not nailed down will be privatised. The NHS will be sold off to the lowest bidder (US) and drug testing /animal welfare standards will plummet like TM through the trap door of resignation.

If there's a way out, I can't see it. They're not going to name any cross party concencus before the 29th that's for certain.
Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by Canuk »

Looks like no deal is coming off the table next Tuesday.
A50 extension is probably what everyone wants, though they might be scared to voice it in public. TM could do with a holiday... :lol:

'On Newsnight last night John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, all but announced that Labour will support Yvette Cooper's A50 extension amendment. He said it was a “sensible proposal” and that it was “increasingly likely” that Labour would vote for it. Assuming the amendment gets called, given the number of rebel Tories in favour, this means it is highly likely to pass.'
softlips
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Post by softlips »

Canuk wrote:
mjr wrote:
Cyril Haearn wrote:Lichtenstein is not a member of the EU, it is very prosperous*

Maybe a Lichtenstein model could be tried for the UK

Same national anthem tune.

Isn't Lichtenstein in a customs union, though? So May's mad red line prevents it.


I'm pretty sure that's the end game for the elitists on the ERG: Britain as Luxembourg, a service based economy with low taxes, very low company tax, nipping away at the prosperity and strength of the euro.

Of course there won't be any workers rights or paid holidays (the default state in the US), and anything that's not nailed down will be privatised. The NHS will be sold off to the lowest bidder (US) and drug testing /animal welfare standards will plummet like TM through the trap door of resignation.

If there's a way out, I can't see it. They're not going to name any cross party concencus before the 29th that's for certain.


If we do remain the NHS will have to open it’s doors to competition from EU companies to deliver healthcare. I attended a meeting in Brussels about this the week of the referendum.
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