It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

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What happens next

Poll runs till 29 Mar 2019, 7:42pm

1. Glittering new world future for the UK
5
12%
2. The world welcomes trade with UK with open arms
6
15%
3. Slow, withering break up of the United Kingdom
15
37%
4. Rapid descent into unspeakable chaos
6
15%
5. Civil unrest resulting in martial law
1
2%
6. People's revolution on the streets, whole thing turned over
0
No votes
7. Don't know, no ideas.
8
20%
 
Total votes: 41

Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Canuk » 7 Jan 2019, 7:45pm

reohn2 wrote:
Canuk wrote:
reohn2 wrote:In 24 hours:-
A truck every 4minutes at Dover = 360
Every 80 minutes = 18
Backlog = 342 per day


Not quite. It currently takes 4 minutes to do a customs check on a truck for intra EU transit. Out of the EU on the 29th with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day leaving British ports. I've already done the math above. The EU will impose the strictest 'Third Country' checks, which in terms of scrutiny I would rate as 'comprehensive'. Hence the time required.

And that's assuming the French and the Dutch authorities don't try and aggravate things the other side (which in all likelihood they will). And it's also not taking into the account the fact the Gilets Jaunes movement might not take advantage of the situation at French ports. A blockade for example, given the chaos existing in Britain would be very easy to put in place.

Unspeakable chaos doesn't even touch the sides.

You initially said Dover
Is there really 10,000 trucks a day leaving UK ports?


Yes. There is.

reohn2
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby reohn2 » 7 Jan 2019, 8:56pm

Canuk wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
Canuk wrote:
Not quite. It currently takes 4 minutes to do a customs check on a truck for intra EU transit. Out of the EU on the 29th with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 10,000 trucks a day leaving British ports. I've already done the math above. The EU will impose the strictest 'Third Country' checks, which in terms of scrutiny I would rate as 'comprehensive'. Hence the time required.

And that's assuming the French and the Dutch authorities don't try and aggravate things the other side (which in all likelihood they will). And it's also not taking into the account the fact the Gilets Jaunes movement might not take advantage of the situation at French ports. A blockade for example, given the chaos existing in Britain would be very easy to put in place.

Unspeakable chaos doesn't even touch the sides.

You initially said Dover
Is there really 10,000 trucks a day leaving UK ports?


Yes. There is.

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PH
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby PH » 7 Jan 2019, 9:23pm

Canuk wrote:
PH wrote:
Canuk wrote:with no formal agreement in place it will take 80 minutes per truck. 1

Port of Dover are saying it'll take 20 minutes, only a quarter of the chaos you predict.


Port of Dover are going to try and paint it in the best colours possible.

Why would they do that? Wouldn't it be in their best interests to overplay it, I'm assuming resources and hence profits will follow workload.
But it wasn't an estimate, it was in answer to the question posed by a parliamentary committee about how long it takes to process a non EU lorry arriving in Dover.
Anyway, why settle for 80 minutes, there's other stories going around that it'll take 8 days.

djnotts
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby djnotts » 7 Jan 2019, 9:32pm

"Port Of Dover 2017
Coaches 79,368 - not a huge number but considerable potential for delays if full border controls imposed.
Road Haulage Vehicles 2,180,611" Probably not spread evenly across 7 days per week, so between 7 - 10,000 per day.

And how many HGVs in today's trials......

Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Canuk » 7 Jan 2019, 9:33pm

djnotts wrote:"Port Of Dover 2017
Coaches 79,368 - not a huge number but considerable potential for delays if full border controls imposed.
Road Haulage Vehicles 2,180,611" Probably not spread evenly across 7 days per week, so between 7 - 10,000 per day.

And how many HGVs in today's trials......


79. I see trouble ahead...

Only 80 days left till E-Day, and not a dish washed nor a trade agreement ratified.
Last edited by Canuk on 7 Jan 2019, 10:00pm, edited 1 time in total.

brynpoeth
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby brynpoeth » 7 Jan 2019, 9:56pm

A great incentive to work more efficiently, to send far fewer widgets and wodgets back and forth, Plus One!

Halving freight movements immediately would be realistic I think :)
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RickH
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby RickH » 7 Jan 2019, 10:26pm

Canuk wrote:Only 80 days left till E-Day, and not a dish washed nor a trade agreement ratified.

To be fair, there never was going to be a trade deal, ratified or otherwise, at this stage.

The current deal on the table is just the terms of our (ordered) legal departure from the EU plus breathing space for the proper negotiations to actually begin & a framework for negotiating the actual deal (trade, etc.) some way down the line.

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mjr
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby mjr » 7 Jan 2019, 10:53pm

PH wrote:
Canuk wrote:
PH wrote:Port of Dover are saying it'll take 20 minutes, only a quarter of the chaos you predict.


Port of Dover are going to try and paint it in the best colours possible.

Why would they do that? Wouldn't it be in their best interests to overplay it, I'm assuming resources and hence profits will follow workload.

I don't see any basis for that assumption. I'd expect resources would go to opening/reopening/enlarging other ports if it looked like Dover couldn't cope. The govt has recently signed contingency contracts for several other ports and more could follow.

Anyway, it's probably somewhere between 20 minutes and 8 days, while the Hauts de France region has been predicting a delay of just 2 minutes will cause a backlog of thousands of lorries at Calais that they need to prepare for: https://www.thelocal.fr/20181109/hauts- ... s-to-lille
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Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Canuk » 8 Jan 2019, 8:25am

Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?

If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.

francovendee
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby francovendee » 8 Jan 2019, 8:36am

Canuk wrote:Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?

If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.


I've seen nothing to suggest she would. One track mind,
'My deal or no deal'. I just wish we had a credible opposition in the UK. Just heard David Davis on radio 4. Talking utter twaddle, basically the EU is going to cave in! How he was given the job to negotiate with the EU I just cant imagine

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661-Pete
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby 661-Pete » 8 Jan 2019, 9:05am

Canuk wrote:Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?

If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.
Depends on what you mean by "the country". She is stuck in the argument that "the country" refers to a 17m slice of the electorate that voted a certain way in 2016, regardless of what their opinion is in 2019 - and she deems this to be the only sector of "the country" that needs to be "put first".

And Churchill is way over-hyped IMO. No way would he have "won" WW2 single-handed - he needed the Russians and the Americans to bring that about. It's often alleged that he had a serious drink problem - though that's generally hushed up. And wasn't it he who tried to call a referendum in 1945 - to perpetuate his National Government and keep Attlee out (unsuccessfully)?
Pete

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Cunobelin
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Cunobelin » 8 Jan 2019, 9:10am

francovendee wrote:
Canuk wrote:Does anyone believe May will 'do a Churchill', ie put the country first, before self and party politics to save Britain rolling over the cliff edge on the 29th?

If she doesn't (and I have my doubts) the phrase 'uncharted territory' will sound like a nirvana compared to what comes next. The weeks are fast eating up (only 11 left to go), and this perpetual Groundhog day will soon be at and end, one way or t'other.


I've seen nothing to suggest she would. One track mind,
'My deal or no deal'. I just wish we had a credible opposition in the UK. Just heard David Davis on radio 4. Talking utter twaddle, basically the EU is going to cave in! How he was given the job to negotiate with the EU I just cant imagine


Unfortunately that is where we are

EU has stated no further negotiation
Therefore there is only one deal
The other option is no deal


Sensible options like delay are subject to the rabid attentions of the Pro-Brexit extreme who are more and more intent on closing down any democratic debate with increasing aggression

mr bajokoses
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby mr bajokoses » 8 Jan 2019, 9:15am

Oldjohnw wrote:Bottom line: Brexit and no dividing border in Ireland are mutually exclusive. You can't be both in and out simultaneously, unless Ireland is United.


+1

Everything that has happened since the referendum has been an attempt to avoid this hardest of questions.

Canuk
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Canuk » 8 Jan 2019, 9:23am

I hope May has the balls to stop the wagons going over the cliff edge AND put country before party. It would be a tragedy to watch her go down with the ship.

It seems clear that the EU are as much influenced by the unprospect of a no deal situation as Parliament are. I don't think there's any grand game of chess or brinkmanship going on here. It's too late for that. They've clearly stated that this is the deal, the only deal and there won't be any unreasonable renegotiation. So, 'take it or leave it', though we know you absolutely cannot afford to leave it, so just be a good doggy and roll over and take it.

That's where it's at. 11 weeks to go. Which will zip by very quick indeed. It seems some still believe she has the word 'DUTY' stitched into her trouser suits. Maybe she will surprise us all yet. The words 'uncharted territory' might not be so ominous after all.

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661-Pete
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby 661-Pete » 8 Jan 2019, 9:34am

mr bajokoses wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:Bottom line: Brexit and no dividing border in Ireland are mutually exclusive. You can't be both in and out simultaneously, unless Ireland is United.


+1

Everything that has happened since the referendum has been an attempt to avoid this hardest of questions.

It seems to be getting more and more "Schrödinger" at every turn. You know - we are simultaneously both "in" and "out" of the EU, there is simultaneously both a "hard" and a "soft" Irish border ... and it can't be resolved until we open the box....

...and I give you one guess who's playing the role of the poor old moggie, in all this!
Pete

Et qui rit des curés d'Oc?/De Meuse raines, houp! de cloques./De quelles loques ce turque coin./Et ne d'anes ni rennes,/Ecuries des curés d'Oc. - Louis d'Antin