It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

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What happens next

Poll ended at 29 Mar 2019, 7:42pm

1. Glittering new world future for the UK
6
13%
2. The world welcomes trade with UK with open arms
7
16%
3. Slow, withering break up of the United Kingdom
15
33%
4. Rapid descent into unspeakable chaos
8
18%
5. Civil unrest resulting in martial law
1
2%
6. People's revolution on the streets, whole thing turned over
0
No votes
7. Don't know, no ideas.
8
18%
 
Total votes: 45

roubaixtuesday
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 10 Jan 2019, 4:47pm

bigjim wrote:
mjr wrote:
mercalia wrote:I suppse Lidl will change agreat deal? all those EU items wont be here any more?

They'll still be here, but especially if there's no deal, there may well be gaps in supply and the prices may go up.

It ain't just the foreign supermarkets that will have problems. Take another look at your weekly shop: plenty of things which you might think are from the UK are currently imported from the EU, such as beet caster sugar in Sainsburys (French) or lettuce in Waitrose (German). The UK imports 50% of its food - 30% from the EU and much of the remainder from countries relying on EU trade policies.

So what do you think will happen to all this food and medicine that we will be unable to obtain under a No Deal scenario? Wine lake? Butter mountain?
I think I am one of the absolute few on this forum who thinks that the world is not going to end in the event of a No Deal. I mean, we seemed to be capable of smoothly exporting and importing before we joined the EU for instance. I'm not that particularly bothered either way as I expect I'll be dead long before there are any great changes. whatever the outcome. I don't think there will be anyway. But I do find it a bit weird that members of this forum are so totally biased against the idea of us being outside the EU. Some quite derogatory comments against those that may have voted differently to most of the forum members. No balance here at all. Shame. :(


In the event of "no deal" we have to suddenly implement a whole new series of customs checks and tariffs for which there is no infrastructure or people to actually do. This will be incredibly disruptive.

How this basic fact represents "totally biased" or "No balance" is a mystery.

I find it more than a bit weird anyone would think that upending our systems for import and export overnight would be anything other than disastrous. But I expect I'm biased in some way.

pete75
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby pete75 » 10 Jan 2019, 4:55pm

Mick F wrote:Listening to Farming Today on R4 most mornings, the beet sugar issue was discussed. Some time back I think.
UK is self sufficient in beet. If Sainsbury's buys foreign beet, more fool them.


Sainsbury's won't buy any beet foreign or otherwise. It's processed into sugar in very large factories like this in Newark and Sainsbury will buy the output. All British beet is processed into sugar but we're not self sufficient in sugar - a lot comes from cane. If any beet is imported it won't be affected by Brexit - the beet season is over by the end of March and god help us if there are still problems with imports at the start of the next beet season in October 2019.

The way beet is grown in this country is very much controlled by British Sugar, a monopoly purchaser as they own all the beet factories. Farmers are given a tonnage quota and are expected to supply this. Supply less and they are penalised. Supply more and the price per ton goes down for each ton over the quota. Britain is self sufficient in beet that British Sugar contracts farmers to grow the amount it wishes to process.

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mjr
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby mjr » 10 Jan 2019, 5:20pm

Tangled Metal wrote:Aldi seems to get stock from further afield. Israel and South America it's not all from the EU.

Trade with Israel is improved by the EU-Israel Association Agreement, so our terms with them could be changing, like with many other countries. So many people don't seem to realise that the loss of access to so many trade agreements will affect our trade with much more than just the EU.

Tangled Metal wrote:I bet doom and gloom merchants will be pleased if their views are played out but I suspect the global supply chain is stronger than Brexit. Prices go up but supply at increased prices will happen. Demand stays so the b supply will too.

When oil prices zoomed up did petrol suddenly stop being supplied or did the price just go up and everyone moaned but still bought it?

When oil supply fell abruptly, not only did the price go up sharply but usage was limited, leading to motorways becoming fun new picnic areas:
Image

No amount of demand will help if the supply cannot get through unprepared ports. That isn't doom and gloom - it's realism. It'll give me no comfort to say "told you this was going to hurt the country" - I would much rather Leavers woke up now and avoided doing this damage.

bigjim wrote:
mjr wrote:
mercalia wrote:I suppse Lidl will change agreat deal? all those EU items wont be here any more?

They'll still be here, but especially if there's no deal, there may well be gaps in supply and the prices may go up.

It ain't just the foreign supermarkets that will have problems. Take another look at your weekly shop: plenty of things which you might think are from the UK are currently imported from the EU, such as beet caster sugar in Sainsburys (French) or lettuce in Waitrose (German). The UK imports 50% of its food - 30% from the EU and much of the remainder from countries relying on EU trade policies.

So what do you think will happen to all this food and medicine that we will be unable to obtain under a No Deal scenario? Wine lake? Butter mountain?

Huh? I specificially said we will still be able to obtain it!

bigjim wrote:I think I am one of the absolute few on this forum who thinks that the world is not going to end in the event of a No Deal.

No-one but you and Leave's Project Fear is talking about the end of the world. Some things are just not going to be as cheap and plentiful as before, at least not in the short term and maybe not ever.

bigjim wrote:I mean, we seemed to be capable of smoothly exporting and importing before we joined the EU for instance. I'm not that particularly bothered either way as I expect I'll be dead long before there are any great changes. whatever the outcome.

Oh what a lovely parting gift from you to the rest of the country(!) If you maim the economy, you don't care because you'll be dead soon :roll:

Yes, we could export/import smoothly before joining the EU and we probably could again with time to transition, but we never tried to double the volume of goods being checked at the border overnight, did we? That's how crashing out will cause problems.

bigjim wrote:I don't think there will be anyway. But I do find it a bit weird that members of this forum are so totally biased against the idea of us being outside the EU. Some quite derogatory comments against those that may have voted differently to most of the forum members. No balance here at all. Shame. :(

It's a miscarriage of democracy. Leave only won because it lied, promising all things to all people, and it looks like getting away with it.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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mr bajokoses
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby mr bajokoses » 10 Jan 2019, 6:39pm

mjr wrote:It's a miscarriage of democracy. Leave only won because it lied, promising all things to all people, and it looks like getting away with it.


Brexit is slipping through the liars' fingers. No policy based on such a dishonest foundation will succeed. Look at the fighting in parliament during the last few days. The brexiters are desperate and are clutching at straws.

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Mick F
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Mick F » 10 Jan 2019, 7:26pm

mr bajokoses wrote: The brexiters are desperate and are clutching at straws.
I'm not desperate nor clutching at anything.
Mick F. Cornwall

mr bajokoses
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby mr bajokoses » 10 Jan 2019, 7:35pm

Mick F wrote:
mr bajokoses wrote: The brexiters are desperate and are clutching at straws.
I'm not desperate nor clutching at anything.


Mick, I'm referring to the scenes in parliament in which our most dishonest politicians are trying to triangulate their wishes for parliamentary sovereignty and for parliament to be silenced.

In any case, reading your contributions to the Jayden Moodie thread, I'm not so sure you are a brexiter any more. As you rightly point out, there are important social issues in this country being neglected while the government tries to achieve the impossible.

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Mick F
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Mick F » 10 Jan 2019, 7:45pm

Yes, I know you were referring to the prats in parliament! :lol:

I'm still a Brexit person. I still want out.
I don't want the country to spend millions getting out, but to get out slowly and gently and nicely ......... but out out out. Softly softly catchee monkey.

I don't want us to spend billions on HS2 and I don't want us to spend any more dosh on new roads and railways.
Spend it on young people. Spend it on schools and health and old people. Spend it on the police and emergency services.
Mick F. Cornwall

mercalia
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby mercalia » 10 Jan 2019, 8:04pm

if govt was a company the CEO would have resigned by now?

PDQ Mobile
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby PDQ Mobile » 10 Jan 2019, 8:23pm

Mick F wrote:Yes, I know you were referring to the prats in parliament! :lol:

I'm still a Brexit person. I still want out.
I don't want the country to spend millions getting out, but to get out slowly and gently and nicely ......... but out out out. Softly softly catchee monkey.

I don't want us to spend billions on HS2 and I don't want us to spend any more dosh on new roads and railways.
Spend it on young people. Spend it on schools and health and old people. Spend it on the police and emergency services.


One could argue here that "young people" are the ones most likely to suffer from reduced chances, both in being able to widen their experience and in a financial sense, as a consequence of voting for Brexit.

In fact I think I will argue that!!

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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby PH » 10 Jan 2019, 8:28pm

mjr wrote:
bigjim wrote:I think I am one of the absolute few on this forum who thinks that the world is not going to end in the event of a No Deal.

No-one but you and Leave's Project Fear is talking about the end of the world. Some things are just not going to be as cheap and plentiful as before, at least not in the short term and maybe not ever.

It's quite clear from page one of this thread that promoting the worst case scenario was it's originators purpose.

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bigjim
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby bigjim » 10 Jan 2019, 9:01pm

It's a miscarriage of democracy. Leave only won because it lied, promising all things to all people, and it looks like getting away with it.

Evidently the Remain camp did a fair amount of lying and brainwashing at the taxpayers expense. How could you or anybody even know for a fact the reason 17 milion people voted? I don't even remember any promises. How ridiculous!
Nothing left to prove.

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bigjim
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby bigjim » 10 Jan 2019, 9:08pm

Oh what a lovely parting gift from you to the rest of the country(!) If you maim the economy, you don't care because you'll be dead soon :roll:

Yes, we could export/import smoothly before joining the EU and we probably could again with time to transition, but we never tried to double the volume of goods being checked at the border overnight, did we? That's how crashing out will cause problems.


Thanks. Didn't know that I was so important I was going to maim the economy. Your Chrystal working overtime?
Again. Looking into your Chrystal ball how crashing out will cause problems. Bit hysterical 'crashing out'. If it was properly planned and using modern technology, double volumes should not be a problem IMO.
By the way. Any chance of the winning lottery numbers.
Nothing left to prove.

Tangled Metal
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby Tangled Metal » 10 Jan 2019, 10:15pm

mjr wrote:
Tangled Metal wrote:I bet doom and gloom merchants will be pleased if their views are played out but I suspect the global supply chain is stronger than Brexit. Prices go up but supply at increased prices will happen. Demand stays so the b supply will too.

When oil prices zoomed up did petrol suddenly stop being supplied or did the price just go up and everyone moaned but still bought it?

When oil supply fell abruptly, not only did the price go up sharply but usage was limited, leading to motorways becoming fun new picnic areas:
Image

No amount of demand will help if the supply cannot get through unprepared ports. That isn't doom and gloom - it's realism. It'll give me no comfort to say "told you this was going to hurt the country" - I would much rather Leavers woke up now and avoided doing this damage.


I take it you're referring to the 70s. I was actually referring to more modern times personally (I was 7 or 8 at the end of the 70s) so less relevant to my view of the current situation.

More recently high prices haven't been an issue. There's no supply issue at the moment. If you're thinking after March there will be a drop in supply then I doubt that will happen. Not long now to find out.

Personally I'm against Brexit. I had an open mind before the referendum. I listened to arguments and I decided to vote remain. That's despite having strong views on the failings you could lay on the EU and European institutions. My vote against Brexit was because the Leave campaign had the least realistic argument. I have never believed project fear nor project unicorn Brexit from leave and Farage's crew.

Right now I am taking no pleasure in being right that Brexit was always going to too complex and without sufficient benefits to make the pain worthwhile. I couldn't see exactly how complex Brexit really was but I recognised how complex even small parts of the UK integrating into the European project was.

Right now my view is the truth of Brexit will not be a cliff edge nor will it be a unicorn future of amazing trade deals around the world to account for losses in trade with EU. Truth is there is no nation in the world that hasn't got trade agreements with nations in their region of the world. Singapore doesn't have a trade deal with EU but it has with all the Asian nations that they deal most with. They are close to ratification of a trade deal with the EU though.

Something like 57 wto member nations have trade deals with the EU, something like 87 operate under wto trade tariffs and something like 13 nations have other trade systems in place such as one sided trade tariffs with the EU such that they get favourable (better than wto) tariffs. Exact numbers aren't right but in the right sort of ratios.

On the plus side the EU is full of trading nations with strong trading relations with the UK. This seems to be resulting in the EU no deal planning coming across as pragmatic in that it has a significant period of transition planned in many areas of concern. Flights between UK and rEU air spaces aren't going to be prevented or affected down to matters like UK hgv licences having continued validity for at least 9 months to allow the setting up of an international driving licence type of system for parity of licences. There's a load of other areas being addressed for a no deal result to this Brexit process.

Anyway there's not long now to find out.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 10 Jan 2019, 10:21pm

bigjim wrote:If it was properly planned and using modern technology,


Has it been properly planned Jim?

Does it use modern technology Jim?

Are you feeling lucky, Jim?

thirdcrank
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Re: It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

Postby thirdcrank » 10 Jan 2019, 10:32pm

You make it sound like Star Trekkin'

Ye cannae change the laws of physics, laws of physics, laws of physics;
ye cannae change the laws of physics, laws of physics, Jim.


http://www.metrolyrics.com/star-trekkin ... -firm.html