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Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 2:51pm
by Polisman
Cyril Haearn wrote:The snp got most of the seats in Scotland but only 45%* of the votes, very unfair
Time to modernise the voting system, end fptp, didnae 'Europe' want to force pr on the uk?

* does this mean 55% of votes cast were against 'independence'?


No it doesn't. It also doesn't mean that the 45% of the vote for the SNP was for independence. The only way to find out what the polling for independence really is, is to have a 2nd referendum. Currently Ipsos /Mori have been polling 50-52% for independence. I suspect that when this tops out at 54-55% they'll make an all out push for a referendum.

Remember how long the Tories were denied their referendum (the election), sooner or later the system buckles under the weight of democracy. Kinda how the whole thing functions. Will of the people and all that.

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 4:17pm
by NATURAL ANKLING
Hi,
But not the same as I pointed out earlier, some new facts added to the list -

PM agrees.......................too soon after last for sure,
Scott's vote leave.......its close for sure, but who cannae say.
Conditions are agreed.
Someone decides what currency :?
Reduce the deficit to below the 3% (EU stipulates min) down from current 7%.................. :(
https://www.gov.scot/news/government-ex ... d-2018-19/
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1VB0SC
"Scotland - which accounts for about a tenth of Britain’s population and economic output - is now responsible for more than half of the United Kingdom’s total government borrowing in cash terms. "
EU wants a frock wearing nation :mrgreen:

Mery Xmas to all :)

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 4:48pm
by irc
Paulatic wrote:So what would be justification for a referendum?


First Brexit bedded in. A year to negotiate from Jan 31st. Then a couple of years to settle into the new system. Say 2024 at earliest.

Second the SNP would need to win aSNP/Green majority in the 2021 Scottish parliament elections.

Third. Opinion polls showing a majority for yes.



Paulatic wrote:Finally I can agree with you, let’s get it written down and let’s stick to the agreement. Can you tell me what happened to the assurances from the last ref? You know the one about staying in Europe and wasn’t there mention of more devolved powers? So how does that fit with the current uk gov wanting to take away powers?


What assurances? The fact was Scotland would have left the EU in the event of a yes. We stayed in. The EU referendum was not on the horizon until the 2015 Tory manifesto and depended on them winning the election. Not certain. Thereafter most people expected the EU ref to be a remain victory. So at the time of indyref it looked like anyone wishing to be in the EU was better voting no.

Mention of further devolved powers. Well since there is higher income tax in Scotland since 2014 that is a newly devolved power. A few more ...

Air Passenger Duty
Borrowing (up to £4.75BN
Crown estate management
Employmentprogrammes
Gaming machine licensing powers
Railway policing
Transport(Including passenger rail franchise, road signsand speed limits)
Welfare(certain aspects)Aspects devolved include: Disability Living AllowancePersonal Independence Payment
Elections Scottish Parliament elections and the local government franchise, including regulation of campaign spending and controlled expenditure on Scottish Parliament elections Not yet in force–it requires changes to the Scottish Parliament standing orders to set out rules on super-majorities.

I note that the SNP have not yet bothered to make the necessary changes to standing orders to bring the elections powers into force. Not that keen on extra powers?



http://www.parliament.scot/images/Parli ... 9-2016.pdf

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 5:02pm
by Polisman
irc wrote:
Paulatic wrote:So what would be justification for a referendum?


First Brexit bedded in. A year to negotiate from Jan 31st. Then a couple of years to settle into the new system. Say 2024 at earliest.

Second the SNP would need to win aSNP/Green majority in the 2021 Scottish parliament elections.

Third. Opinion polls showing a majority for yes.

f


First, that's your timetable, I doubt there's a single Scot or MSP who gives a toss about you're ideas on Indyref 2.

Second, if they just cleaned up 80% of the available seats for MPs in the election, they'll cakewalk it. Though why should they wait? Did you see anyone hanging around for a GE to get a mandate for brexit? I don't think so.

And third, two Ipsos /Mori polls back to back giving a Yes to independence lead of 50-52%. When it peaks at 54%, a 2nd referendum, like Boris's GE is inevitable.

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 5:38pm
by Bonefishblues
Why is 54% particularly significant?

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 8:25pm
by Cunobelin
irc wrote:
georgew wrote: It does raise the question..... that if we are such a burden to the UK.....then why all the efforts to stop us leaving?


What efforts? We had a referendum in 2014 and voted to stay. It was a referendum not a neverendum. It was divisive and distracted from other govt business. In the 2019 UK general election 55% voted for unionist parties. Not juistification for a referendum.

If Brexit is this excuse (another will be along soon) then the logical thing is to wait and see exactly how Brexit pans out before having another referendum.

The next referendum should have a minimum time before any future referendums in the text as verbal assurances from SNP politicians of it being a once in a generation vote are worthless.

https://twitter.com/scottories/status/1 ... 90?lang=en


There has been a massive change.....

The change IS Brexit. A large majority of Scots wished to remain in the EU

They are being dragged out by English Voters (Same applies to Northern Ireland)

There is much bleating about obeying the "will of the people" yet the Scots are being denied their democratic decision.

That is what has changed, and that is why a Referendum is needed

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 8:27pm
by Cunobelin
Bonefishblues wrote:Why is 54% particularly significant?



Because if it is English, the low 50's are a massive majority and justify leaving the EU. However, if it is the Scots then a 60% remain vote is irrelevant. and worthless

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 10:09pm
by Paulatic
irc wrote:
Paulatic wrote:So what would be justification for a referendum?
.

Second the SNP would need to win aSNP/Green majority in the 2021 Scottish parliament elections.

.
Are you sure can keep omitting Labour from that list?

irc wrote:Third. Opinion polls showing a majority for yes.

?
.
I can see that being a battlefield :)




What assurances?
:roll:
Here’s some of their leaflets https://politicaladvertising.co.uk/2014 ... materials/
Take a look at the Better Together website Sept 14 and refresh your memory. Re EU Find David Cameron’s speech if you can be bothered. Oh and don’t forget Ruth Davidson said it too.
http://web.archive.org/web/201409142057 ... trust-them


Mention of further devolved powers. Well since there is higher income tax in Scotland since 2014 that is a newly devolved power. .

Tax powers since 2012 , newest power was to change the tax band thresholds. AIUI Income tax is not a devolved tax

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 10:50pm
by irc
Cunobelin wrote:
Bonefishblues wrote:Why is 54% particularly significant?



Because if it is English, the low 50's are a massive majority and justify leaving the EU. However, if it is the Scots then a 60% remain vote is irrelevant. and worthless


I think you are a bit confused. There was no Scottish or English EU referendum. There was a UK wide referendum. We voted to leave, and despite 3 years of establishment attempts to block it we are leaving.

If a Scottish indyref gives a 50.1 yes vote then we will leave. One thing at a time though. Brexit first. Then the 2021 Scottish elections. Then if the SNP get a majority maybe early in the 2024 to 2029 Tory govt there will be indyref 2. It's been 300 years. Why the rush?

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 24 Dec 2019, 11:49pm
by hjd10
Polisman wrote:Just off to bed, after an interesting evening (watching Turkeys vote for Xmas).

With the SNP likely to take 95% of the seats in Scotland, it's impossible to see how a refusal to allow another referendum is possible. Boris can bluff and bluster all he wants, but tonight's result is a compelling mandate for Independence.

Scotland wants to stay in the EU, and they will not stand for another five years of blistering austerity under a buffoon like Boris. It's that simple. The Scots don't suffer fools, at all. (my brother in law is one, they have form).

I ask the same old question: if Westminster (read Tories) are so confident of their bright future, why deny Scotland its right to decide? What are they so frightened of? If its good enough to have a referendum on Brexit, its certainly good enough to try another independence vote.

The Scots don't want brexit, and they certainly don't want a Tory government. It's only a matter of time, in my opinion. Goodbye old England, its time they were gone.

What good is Scotland to the rUK? Why are they so hell bent on retaining it (cant be because they like haggis and tartan).
Is it the nuclear deterrent (estimates put it at £200 billion to relocate), is it the oil and gas reserves (England have just about none, of either), the insurance industry, the trillions of gallons of water they export to England for free, the country estates? These are going to be the big questions of 2020, as we already know Brexit is another five /ten years to get 'done'.

Goodbye and please don't look back. :D

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 25 Dec 2019, 8:16am
by Cunobelin
irc wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:
Bonefishblues wrote:Why is 54% particularly significant?



Because if it is English, the low 50's are a massive majority and justify leaving the EU. However, if it is the Scots then a 60% remain vote is irrelevant. and worthless


I think you are a bit confused. There was no Scottish or English EU referendum. There was a UK wide referendum. We voted to leave, and despite 3 years of establishment attempts to block it we are leaving.

If a Scottish indyref gives a 50.1 yes vote then we will leave. One thing at a time though. Brexit first. Then the 2021 Scottish elections. Then if the SNP get a majority maybe early in the 2024 to 2029 Tory govt there will be indyref 2. It's been 300 years. Why the rush?


Not confused at all... the "We" you keep on referring to is the English though. This map clearly represents how the SCots and Northern Irish voted:

Image


The Sots and the Northern Irish voted with a large majority to Remain, it is the votes of the English that are dragging them out of the EU against their will... and the rush is due to the fact that Brexit is being imposed.

There is no reason at all why a second referendum cannot be held this year.

In fact, it would make sense to allow Scotland to leave the UK and remain in the EU during the Transition period.

Although getting Brexit sorted first may be a step towards the Referendum as the problems of negotiating Brexit and the plummet to deals with the US and the risks of crashing out escalate ... people will turn more and more to independence from the extremists in London

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 25 Dec 2019, 9:17am
by Polisman
I hope the Scots get a good slogan, better than 'Get Brexit Done' at any rate.

'We're leaving, it's the will of the people' would do the trick.

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 25 Dec 2019, 1:10pm
by Cunobelin
NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,
But not the same as I pointed out earlier, some new facts added to the list -

PM agrees.......................too soon after last for sure,
Scott's vote leave.......its close for sure, but who cannae say.
Conditions are agreed.
Someone decides what currency :?
Reduce the deficit to below the 3% (EU stipulates min) down from current 7%.................. :(
https://www.gov.scot/news/government-ex ... d-2018-19/
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1VB0SC
"Scotland - which accounts for about a tenth of Britain’s population and economic output - is now responsible for more than half of the United Kingdom’s total government borrowing in cash terms. "
EU wants a frock wearing nation :mrgreen:

Mery Xmas to all :)


Currency is easy... when Scotland joins the EU, I suspect the Euro will be part of the deal

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 25 Dec 2019, 1:14pm
by Cunobelin
Mike Sales wrote:
irc wrote:
If Brexit is this excuse (another will be along soon) then the logical thing is to wait and see exactly how Brexit pans out before having another referendum.



How long will that be?

The next referendum should have a minimum time before any future referendums in the text


And perhaps it should be explicit whether it is advisory or binding, majority needed and minimum turn out to make it so.


... and a non-binary question to stop the extremist claims about what was voted for?

Re: Goodbye Old England - Jockxit. It's Time We Were Gone

Posted: 25 Dec 2019, 1:17pm
by Cunobelin
Polisman wrote:
irc wrote:
Paulatic wrote:So what would be justification for a referendum?


First Brexit bedded in. A year to negotiate from Jan 31st. Then a couple of years to settle into the new system. Say 2024 at earliest.

Second the SNP would need to win aSNP/Green majority in the 2021 Scottish parliament elections.

Third. Opinion polls showing a majority for yes.

f


First, that's your timetable, I doubt there's a single Scot or MSP who gives a toss about you're ideas on Indyref 2.

Second, if they just cleaned up 80% of the available seats for MPs in the election, they'll cakewalk it. Though why should they wait? Did you see anyone hanging around for a GE to get a mandate for brexit? I don't think so.

And third, two Ipsos /Mori polls back to back giving a Yes to independence lead of 50-52%. When it peaks at 54%, a 2nd referendum, like Boris's GE is inevitable.



The money is also on the fact that it will be the “No Deal” that Boris and the ERG wanted all along

No sane person really expects negotiations to be anything apart from the preliminaries in the target dates