Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

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661-Pete
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Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby 661-Pete » 25 Jan 2020, 11:18am

Well, according to the media, we're set for Armageddon. I think it's being over-hyped, but correct me if I'm wrong.

So far, 41 deaths reported in China, fewer elsewhere in the world. That sounds like a typical seasonal flu epidemic to me; sadly, flu jabs notwithstanding, there's always a death toll especially amongst the elderly, young children, and other more vulnerable. The virus keeps on mutating and new strains arise, to beat the vaccine all the time.

The difference with coronavirus is that there appears to be no vaccine - yet. No doubt one will be developed in time.

How contagious is it? Reports vary. Of course the footage of people in China's streets wearing facemasks is very dramatic. Many of those people, I guess, would wear facemasks anyway, because of the pollution. And all strains of flu are highly contagious, always have been.

Personally, I'm far more worried about Climate Change and the surge in intolerance and hate crime. Should I be?

Whatever the outcome, I doubt if it'll be this scenario. :shock:
Last edited by 661-Pete on 12 Feb 2020, 10:54am, edited 1 time in total.
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Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 25 Jan 2020, 11:53am

The levels of PPE being employed by the health workers, is the sort of kit usually employed for mitigating the risks involved for dealing with a patient suspected of being infected by category 4 pathogen ( H.I.V. Ebola, Lassa Virus etc). That bothers me slightly, as the Chinese have already mapped it’s entire DNA profile, so they know exactly what they’re dealing with.

PDQ Mobile
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby PDQ Mobile » 25 Jan 2020, 11:59am

IMHO it is simply too early to say how it will pan out.

Certainly the virus seems to be highly infectious.
It may well have quite far-reaching consequenses, travel restrictions etc, for that reason alone.

I don't fancy getting it, I must say.

((There may be unseen plusses for the devious though.
In terrible haste at a crowded supermarket checkout or ticket office.
One turns, coughing lightly, to the next person in the queue and says; " this is just like Wuhan, I just returned from a fascinating holiday there" :shock:
10 seconds later the the queue has miraculously evaporated!! ))
Last edited by PDQ Mobile on 25 Jan 2020, 12:26pm, edited 1 time in total.

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horizon
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby horizon » 25 Jan 2020, 12:21pm

661-Pete wrote:We

The difference with coronavirus is that there appears to be no vaccine - yet.



The difference with this coronavirus AIUI is that it has jumped from animal to human (not the first time) but then been transmitted from human to human - for the first time. This is what was said on Radio 4 the other day. So the corinavirus apparently is new and unique - that is very different. It would be good to get some verification of this.
The experience of travel is something that you have to pay for but can never buy. Ho Ri Zon Chinese philosopher

Vorpal
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby Vorpal » 25 Jan 2020, 12:32pm

This article in the Guardian seems pretty sensible... https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... s-symptoms
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mercalia
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby mercalia » 25 Jan 2020, 2:36pm

well worrying is that there are cases now in France. For any cases found there must be lots more developing?

I wont be visiting my fave Wong Kei chinese restaurant in China Town, London for a time.

UK tracing up to 2,000 Wuhan visitors

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51232163

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 25 Jan 2020, 7:46pm

horizon wrote:
661-Pete wrote:We

The difference with coronavirus is that there appears to be no vaccine - yet.



The difference with this coronavirus AIUI is that it has jumped from animal to human (not the first time) but then been transmitted from human to human - for the first time. This is what was said on Radio 4 the other day. So the corinavirus apparently is new and unique - that is very different. It would be good to get some verification of this.

Corona viruses are just a type of virus, some influenza viruses are Corona viruses, the classification is to do with their modus operandi. The Chinese have mapped the genome of this one, so a vaccine shouldn’t be too hard to produce. Getting it ready to go might be more of a challenge though.

Mike Sales
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby Mike Sales » 25 Jan 2020, 7:54pm

Here is an article about producing a vaccine.

This week the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi) announced it would commit $11m (£8.4m) to three programmes led by the companies Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Moderna and the University of Queensland.


This time the aim is to have a viable vaccine in production within as little as 16 weeks – although testing for safety and efficacy will take longer.


One of the teams is working on a so-called DNA vaccine. The aim is to find the specific stretch of DNA that codes for the receptor on the virus’ surface that allows the immune system to target it. In theory, if this DNA is injected into a person, it should enter their cells, which would start churning out proteins that look exactly like the receptor on the surface of the virus. These little floating receptors would then trigger the immune system without causing any illness.


https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/24/lessons-from-sars-outbreak-help-in-race-for-coronavirus-vaccine

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Audax67
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby Audax67 » 26 Jan 2020, 3:02pm



This:

Whether a vaccine will ever need to be deployed is an open question. Sars was brought under control with public health measures, and possibly because it mutated into a less virulent strain. The vaccine was shelved and never licensed.


In that respect the Chinese are doing exactly the right thing. But no kudos to that woman from Wuhan who said a couple of days ago that she heard they'd be looking for fever and other signs so she took an over-the-counter flu remedy to suppress them and walked through the cordon.

WRT viruses mutating: an entire population doesn't mutate, individual viruses mutate, and if they're more viable than the rest of the population they will dominate in the long run. However, the original population will still be there while this is happening and will be just as virulent as before: it may in fact almost certainly give rise to multiple mutant strains.

BTW, if you've got Netflux and haven't seen it, the film Contagion is excellent. Just about the only place that it falls down is in making the time to discover and produce a vaccine far too short.
Have we got time for another cuppa?


dim
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby dim » 26 Jan 2020, 7:57pm

rumour has it:

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation co-hosted a pandemic exercise in late 2019 that simulated a global coronavirus outbreak.

They also just happen to fund the group who owns the patent to the deadly virus and are working on a vaccine to solve the crisis.

On June 19, 2015, the UK government-funded Pirbright Institute filed an application for a patent for the live coronavirus, which was approved on Nov 20, 2018.

Suspiciously, a Pirbright Institute “primary funder” is the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Image

watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=31&v=Awzj3ZeHf98&feature=emb_logo

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RickH
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby RickH » 26 Jan 2020, 9:33pm

dim wrote:rumour has it:

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation co-hosted a pandemic exercise in late 2019 that simulated a global coronavirus outbreak.

They also just happen to fund the group who owns the patent to the deadly virus and are working on a vaccine to solve the crisis.

On June 19, 2015, the UK government-funded Pirbright Institute filed an application for a patent for the live coronavirus, which was approved on Nov 20, 2018.

Suspiciously, a Pirbright Institute “primary funder” is the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Image

watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=31&v=Awzj3ZeHf98&feature=emb_logo

Snopes.com wrote:As the U.S. reported its first case of coronavirus Tuesday, social media users began spreading misinformation suggest the U.S. government was aware of the virus for years, citing patents related to the virus as proof. Some posts said the virus was created in a lab...

But the patents being shared are for previous viruses, one for avian infectious bronchitis virus, and another for SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome...

Confusion surrounding the patents appears to stem from use of the word coronavirus when describing in the current situation. Coronavirus is a broad name for a family of viruses that includes the common cold, but when found in bats, camels and other animals it has evolved into more severe illnesses, as was the case with the SARS epidemic.(link)

francovendee
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby francovendee » 27 Jan 2020, 8:50am

I think China is taking it very seriously and so should we. When I last heard the death rate was below 3%. These were likely victims who already had other illnesses.
If it reaches the UK I think it could be a huge problem as hospitals are already at breaking point.

mercalia
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby mercalia » 27 Jan 2020, 11:24am

francovendee wrote:I think China is taking it very seriously and so should we. When I last heard the death rate was below 3%. These were likely victims who already had other illnesses.
If it reaches the UK I think it could be a huge problem as hospitals are already at breaking point.


The last place you would want to be would be in an hospital?

Tangled Metal
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Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

Postby Tangled Metal » 27 Jan 2020, 2:53pm

Tin hats out again. Isn't coronavirus a type not a specific name for a specific virus? Like a cold isn't once virus but a generic name for a host of viruses also of your coronavirus type. So named Corona because of mode of infection.