Ciara

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fausto copy
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Re: Ciara

Post by fausto copy »

As far as I'm concerned the Met Office and other associations got it pretty much correct.

For Ciara they forecast 60 to 80 mph winds with lots of rain and possible flooding to the North of England and possibly Scotland.

For Dennis they forecast slightly lighter winds of 50 to 60 mph winds but more severe problems due to heavy rain and snowmelt causing flooding.
If you look at the reports online and no doubt the TV news, you will see horrendous conditions especially in the South Wales valleys.

I'm grateful that they gave us the warnings they did, but when faced with conditions such as thesis, sadly there's not much done can do about it with 5 feet of floodwater coming through your house.

I did see a report this morning that the government are planning to spend "huge" amounts on flood prevention, with over a third of it going to London and the South East. :roll:
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Mick F
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Re: Ciara

Post by Mick F »

Quite pleasant here now, despite the warnings.
Me and doggie got wet earlier, but it's nice and bright outside now. Still no wind despite the forecast.
Temp is 10degC, not 7degC.
Screen Shot 2020-02-16 at 14.13.57.png
Mick F. Cornwall
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Mick F
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Re: Ciara

Post by Mick F »

Morzedec wrote:Just so disappointed: down 'ere, we wus 'oping fur Denzil.
Denzil from Only Fools and Horses?
What would Corrine say?
Mick F. Cornwall
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Re: Ciara

Post by PDQ Mobile »

Mick, the "weather" is a chaotic system.
In the true sense of the word.
It is unstable and small changes in many factors make large differences.
Perhaps especially topography.

You (or anybody else) cannot put the weather in a neat "box".
Some folk find this hard- this chaos- they love order, and fixed predictability.
Anything away from those safe and secure features and they seem troubled.

Other folk (and I sort of count myself amongst them) like a bit of decent chaos!
They accept that much in life is unpredictable and surprising- that adds interest and spice.
Indeed an ordered life is viewed with some horror!!

This is, I hasten to add, not being just a little organised and prepared.

By and large the Met Office do good work forecasting. Though many folk, perhaps especially urban folk, often seem very uninterested in forecast weather.
Seemingly surprised if one says, "something" is on the way.
And often critical of the capabilities of the weather men; "they never get it right"etc.
It bears some similarity to scepticism about politics and while not exclusively a UK phenomena is is certainly well developed here.

Named storm Ciara was muted by Alex Deakin (online) some 5 or 6 days in advance.
Something of a triumph of forecasting, nothing showed on the pressure charts at that time.
Dennis too was predicted well before "he" took real form.

Mostly the warnings are accurate and useful.
Although very sadly little can be done to ameliorate such intense (and to date unusual) rainfall. Parts of the Beacons had 5 or 6".
Oldjohnw
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Re: Ciara

Post by Oldjohnw »

John
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Mick F
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Re: Ciara

Post by Mick F »

PDQ Mobile wrote:Mostly the warnings are accurate and useful.
This depends on where you live and if you find them useful.

The Met Office have us in The Tamar Valley Mining District.
They are usually wrong because their gauges and detector systems aren't in the Tamar Valley Mining District at all.

If they were to ring me on the phone, I could tell them what the weather is now and will be over the next few hours.

Yellow Wind Warning in place for today.
Not one breath of wind here and it's not raining either, plus the temp is 9degC.
Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 09.09.30.png
Mick F. Cornwall
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Morzedec
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Re: Ciara

Post by Morzedec »

Mick F, sorry, but no: tis' Denzil from Penwith what bothers the likes o' we, twenty pints on a Friday night before he drives his tractor home from the pub.

It's a different world, Penwith; not at all like the rest of Cornwall - missionaries still appear from time to time, wasting their days trying to learn how to make 'proper job' pasties (eat your heart out, Mr Samworth).

Ah, such happy days.
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Mick F
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Re: Ciara

Post by Mick F »

:D :D
Mick F. Cornwall
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al_yrpal
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Re: Ciara

Post by al_yrpal »

When the Met Office get their billion pound computer (located in Iceland or Norway to take advantage of cheaper electricity) forecasts will become more accurate.

Read about it here... BBC News - Met Office forecasters set for 'billion pound' supercomputer
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51504002

It will be able to forecast the weather in each 100m square! ie Micks Garden :lol:

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
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Re: Ciara

Post by PDQ Mobile »

al_yrpal wrote:
It will be able to forecast the weather in each 100m square! ie Micks Garden :lol:

Al

Mick's garden is bigger than that so it should be easy then.
On the other hand Mick could provide the data and the forecast fot the rest of Cornwall based on his observations.
And some hanging seaweed.

They would be more accurate in his view. :shock:
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Audax67
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Re: Ciara

Post by Audax67 »

al_yrpal wrote:When the Met Office get their billion pound computer (located in Iceland or Norway to take advantage of cheaper electricity) forecasts will become more accurate.

Read about it here... BBC News - Met Office forecasters set for 'billion pound' supercomputer
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51504002

It will be able to forecast the weather in each 100m square! ie Micks Garden :lol:

Al


Invitations to the IT industry to bid for the project are being drawn up and will go out near the end of the year.

And the start date for the new machine will be sometime in late 2022.


I've heard that one before. I did 50 years in the computer industry and never saw anything to contradict the axiom that the pricier a project the later it'll be up & running and further over budget it'll be. See Denver Airport baggage-handling system.
Have we got time for another cuppa?
reohn2
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Re: Ciara

Post by reohn2 »

PDQ Mobile wrote:Mick, the "weather" is a chaotic system.
In the true sense of the word.
It is unstable and small changes in many factors make large differences.
Perhaps especially topography.
You (or anybody else) cannot put the weather in a neat "box"

Agreed


Some folk find this hard- this chaos- they love order, and fixed predictability.
Anything away from those safe and secure features and they seem troubled.

Other folk (and I sort of count myself amongst them) like a bit of decent chaos!
They accept that much in life is unpredictable and surprising- that adds interest and spice.
Indeed an ordered life is viewed with some horror!!

That's not surprising,order and predictability = stability.
A little chaos is manageable but 2m of flood water in your living room and kitchen is not the sort of chaos most people would like or welcome,such chaos causes major upset and increased mental stress over a long period



By and large the Met Office do good work forecasting. Though many folk, perhaps especially urban folk, often seem very uninterested in forecast weather.
Seemingly surprised if one says, "something" is on the way.
And often critical of the capabilities of the weather men; "they never get it right"etc.
It bears some similarity to scepticism about politics and while not exclusively a UK phenomena is is certainly well developed here

In the areas where extreme weather doesn't affect people they don't worry because they don't need to,their outlook is blinkered in that respect.
Once such extremes affect or threaten to affect their lives they are far more aware.


Named storm Ciara was muted by Alex Deakin (online) some 5 or 6 days in advance.
Something of a triumph of forecasting, nothing showed on the pressure charts at that time.
Dennis too was predicted well before "he" took real form.

Mostly the warnings are accurate and useful.
Although very sadly little can be done to ameliorate such intense (and to date unusual) rainfall. Parts of the Beacons had 5 or 6".

Quite!
And the worst of it is that Ciara and Dennis were in quick succession therefore not allowing any recovery leading to a doubling of the worst conditions.
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mattheus
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Re: Ciara

Post by mattheus »

PDQ Mobile wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:
It will be able to forecast the weather in each 100m square! ie Micks Garden :lol:

Al

Mick's garden is bigger than that so it should be easy then.
On the other hand Mick could provide the data and the forecast fot the rest of Cornwall based on his observations.
And some hanging seaweed.

They would be more accurate in his view. :shock:


That's because he's talking nonsense.
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661-Pete
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Re: Ciara

Post by 661-Pete »

I have to say, I just love this juxtaposition of headline and piccy - don't you? :twisted:
(Cut from Grauniad's website; I added the ellipse):
Flood pic from Graun.jpg
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).
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Re: Ciara

Post by PDQ Mobile »

reohn2 wrote:
PDQ Mobile wrote:Mick, the "weather" is a chaotic system.
In the true sense of the word.
It is unstable and small changes in many factors make large differences.
Perhaps especially topography.
You (or anybody else) cannot put the weather in a neat "box"

Agreed

Some folk find this hard- this chaos- they love order, and fixed predictability.
Anything away from those safe and secure features and they seem troubled.

Other folk (and I sort of count myself amongst them) like a bit of decent chaos!
They accept that much in life is unpredictable and surprising- that adds interest and spice.
Indeed an ordered life is viewed with some horror!!


That's not surprising,order and predictability = stability.
A little chaos is manageable but 2m of flood water in your living room and kitchen is not the sort of chaos most people would like or welcome,such chaos causes major upset and increased mental stress over a long period


Oh I agree and I am very sorry for those affected.
It's grim.
We were lucky in N Wales, by and large.

My "chaos" is really a reference to a certain personal "happy-go-lucky" attitude that has seen me through some unexpected events in life, and dare I say weather!
Perhaps flexibility is a better description!

I am certainly not an obsessive collector of anything (except firewood! which is the opposite of chaotic of course), or a maker of long lists.

And I am not an obsessive sceptic of the Met Office, because I recognise the quintessential truth that they are dealing with a system that IS chaotic and therefore unpredictable in every last detail.

Sometimes the Met get it very wrong but it is the rare exception not the rule.

To continually critise because one lives in a microclimate seems rather blinkered to the whole big picture. IMV
Now what does that remind me of!?

I'll get me coat.
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