Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

[nsew]

I have a brother in law seriously ill. I am finding the callous denial of some on these pages too much to handle just now.

Just to balance out I now have three friends* who are confirmed positive.Two say it's like having a cold and the other has what feels like a really bad chest infection.
Everyone is different.There is no callous denial on these pages IMO.Just folk doing ordinary stuff.

My wife has just gone to work on a ward where there are now at least a dozen confirmed cases and 4 deaths,1 confirmed as Covid-19 related.Anything I post is not callous denial but facts as I see them.
The survival rate of this virus is 95.5%.Death rate is 4.5%.
That's not denial that is a medical fact.
*edited due to typing error*

Thanks for clearing that up. Are the Stand-Up clubs closed in your area?

[PH]

As I said about 100 pages ago...if you get it and die,then it's your time to die.If you get it and don't then it isn't.
That's the circle of life.
Natural selection.

We don't all follow your theology. If I get it and die because someone thought they knew better than to follow the simple advise, I don't consider it is my time and the one doing the selection (By ignoring advise) might think they're the Messiah, but they're just a very naughty boy.

[100%JR]

As I said about 100 pages ago...if you get it and die,then it's your time to die.If you get it and don't then it isn't.
That's the circle of life.
Natural selection.

We don't all follow your theology. If I get it and die because someone thought they knew better than to follow the simple advise, I don't consider it is my time and the one doing the selection (By ignoring advise) might think they're the Messiah, but they're just a very naughty boy.

Unfortunately that isn't your decision
I'm sure every one who's ever died didn't consider it their time.I don't consider it my time but Natural selection might have it's own idea.
It is what it is.
Having said that I'm 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% sure that we'll still be discussing this in 3/6/12 months time as I doubt we'll be in the 4.5% of those who actually catch it and peg it

[Paulatic]

As I said about 100 pages ago...if you get it and die,then it's your time to die.If you get it and don't then it isn't.
That's the circle of life.
Natural selection.

We don't all follow your theology. If I get it and die because someone thought they knew better than to follow the simple advise, I don't consider it is my time and the one doing the selection (By ignoring advise) might think they're the Messiah, but they're just a very naughty boy.

I’ve a quandary here.
If you get it isn’t that because you didn’t follow precautions and simple advice?
Surely it’s the person who thought they knew better that’s going to catch it?

[roubaixtuesday]

As I said about 100 pages ago...if you get it and die,then it's your time to die.If you get it and don't then it isn't.
That's the circle of life.
Natural selection.

We don't all follow your theology. If I get it and die because someone thought they knew better than to follow the simple advise, I don't consider it is my time and the one doing the selection (By ignoring advise) might think they're the Messiah, but they're just a very naughty boy.

I’ve a quandary here.
If you get it isn’t that because you didn’t follow precautions and simple advice?
Surely it’s the person who thought they knew better that’s going to catch it?

No. Following advice reduces your risk.

It cannot eliminate risk.

[100%JR]

As I said about 100 pages ago...if you get it and die,then it's your time to die.If you get it and don't then it isn't.
That's the circle of life.
Natural selection.

We don't all follow your theology. If I get it and die because someone thought they knew better than to follow the simple advise, I don't consider it is my time and the one doing the selection (By ignoring advise) might think they're the Messiah, but they're just a very naughty boy.

I’ve a quandary here.
If you get it isn’t that because you didn’t follow precautions and simple advice?
Surely it’s the person who thought they knew better that’s going to catch it?

Not necessarily.
You or I could already have it.We now "self-isolate" but have already passed it on
It's not even guaranteed to be safe "self-isolating".No ones actually released any data to show self-isolators are virus free.How can they as the "self-isolation" has come weeks after the virus landed in the UK.
Total waste of time.

[DaveReading]

You're right, we're not at any risk from people who are infected being out and about in society. I'm going to be much more confident now.

Yes, you said that already.

Now I don't have an issue with her being out and about

Good to see you haven't changed your mind.

[Bonefishblues]

You're right, we're not at any risk from people who are infected being out and about in society. I'm going to be much more confident now.

Yes, you said that already.

Now I don't have an issue with her being out and about

Good to see you haven't changed your mind.

Great to have you along Dave

[PH]

We don't all follow your theology. If I get it and die because someone thought they knew better than to follow the simple advise, I don't consider it is my time and the one doing the selection (By ignoring advise) might think they're the Messiah, but they're just a very naughty boy.

I’ve a quandary here.
If you get it isn’t that because you didn’t follow precautions and simple advice?
Surely it’s the person who thought they knew better that’s going to catch it?

No. Following advice reduces your risk.

It cannot eliminate risk.

Just that and the reduction is critical.

[PH]

Having said that I'm 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% sure that we'll still be discussing this in 3/6/12 months time as I doubt we'll be in the 4.5% of those who actually catch it and peg it

If your 4.5% figure is right (I don't think it is) it'd be highly unlikely that no forum member would die.

[mercalia]

Shopping Protocols

It seems to me much has to change if the social distancing policy is to followed ie 2m separation

a) no more crowds waiting for shops to open ( shops not allowed to open if there are such crowds)
b)fewer numbers allowed at tills/self checkout as current practices concentrate buyers?
c) fewer numbers allowed in stores at any one time esp those "local" branches sprouting up on the high street
d) open at say 10 am so that people cannot pop in on the way to work (may dampen crowds)

The way things are at the moment supermarkets are probably the major transmitters of the virus mixing large numbers of strangers

They have to take responsibility for their actions

[horizon]

Thinking again about Bergamo, here are my predictions for the next few weeks:

1. Once the worst is over in Bergamo, Italy won't see much more of covid19 and cases will diminish rapidly. This virus has little to do with Italy - it is Lombardy's, the region with the worst air pollution in Europe jammed up against the Alps. With an aged population (average age of people with coronavirus in Italy is 79) it was a sitting duck at the end of a winter that had already seen a major air pollution crisis. The lines of army lorries were real as were the overstretched hospitals. But just as real as far as I know is the lot of older people in this relatively affluent part of Europe: often immobile and heavily medicated in what are probably otherwise quite pleasant nursing homes.

2. In a mirror image of Bergamo, Wuhan will soon shake itself down and declare the crisis over, the most vulnerable having succumbed to the respiratory illness that carried them away. The smog and the pollution will then start up again as the city returns to normal. Winter will be over for these two cities in the northern hemisphere and with it the respiratory illnesses that cold weather can bring. And just as covid19 was Lombardy's, not Italy's, it was Wuhan's not China's.

3. Despite a month of clear skies, clean air and good visibility, the credit for the ending of the crisis will be awarded to the strict containment measures in both Wuhan and Lombardy. The lockdown will be seen as a success - which of course it unknowingly, and for different reasons, was. But instead of actually continuing with measures to reduce traffic and pollution, the hunt will be on for odd-looking Chinese men who might have been seen wandering around Milan or one of the villages in the smog-bound hills carrying with them a devastating disease. And given the number of Chinese people currently working or visiting all over Europe, it won't be long before a couple of suspects are found.

Let's see how things pan out.

[mercalia]

Thinking again about Bergamo, here are my predictions for the next few weeks:

1. Once the worst is over in Bergamo, Italy won't see much more of covid19 and cases will diminish rapidly. This virus has little to do with Italy - it is Lombardy's, the region with the worst air pollution in Europe jammed up against the Alps. With an aged population (average age of people with coronavirus in Italy is 79) it was a sitting duck at the end of a winter that had already seen a major air pollution crisis. The lines of army lorries were real as were the overstretched hospitals. But just as real as far as I know is the lot of older people in this relatively affluent part of Europe: often immobile and heavily medicated in what are probably otherwise quite pleasant nursing homes.

2. In a mirror image of Bergamo, Wuhan will soon shake itself down and declare the crisis over, the most vulnerable having succumbed to the respiratory illness that carried them away. The smog and the pollution will then start up again as the city returns to normal. Winter will be over for these two cities in the northern hemisphere and with it the respiratory illnesses that cold weather can bring. And just as covid19 was Lombardy's, not Italy's, it was Wuhan's not China's.

3. Despite a month of clear skies, clean air and good visibility, the credit for the ending of the crisis will be awarded to the strict containment measures in both Wuhan and Lombardy. The lockdown will be seen as a success - which of course it unknowingly, and for different reasons, was. But instead of actually continuing with measures to reduce traffic and pollution, the hunt will be on for odd-looking Chinese men who might have been seen wandering around Milan or one of the villages in the smog-bound hills carrying with them a devastating disease. And given the number of Chinese people currently working or visiting all over Europe, it won't be long before a couple of suspects are found.

Let's see how things pan out.

presumably not all the infected chinese came from Wuhan

wiki-

in 2010, there were 119,551 people residing in Bergamo (in which the greater area has about 500 000 inhabitants), located in the province of Bergamo, Lombardia, of whom 46.6% were male and 53.4% were female. Minors (children ages 18 and younger) totalled 16.79 percent of the population compared to pensioners who number 23.61 percent. This compares with the Italian average of 17.88 percent (minors) and 20.29 percent (pensioners).

The average age of Bergamo residents is 45 compared to the Italian average of 43. In the eight years between 2002 and 2010, the population of Bergamo grew by 5.41 percent, while Italy as a whole grew by 5.77 percent.[29]

so have things changed alot since then? that data isnot so different from the rest of italy?

[horizon]

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world. Lombardy (Milan) has some of the worst air pollution in Europe. It is a devasting combination.

[fullupandslowingdown]

The blood test results, from the bloods which were taken at the time I was tested in January ( having returned from a meeting with a customer with a factory in Wuhan ) have come back. There is no evidence of the presence of nCOVID-19, but there are “unknown antibodies”. That’s interesting.

something picked up from off this forum