roubaixtuesday wrote:pwa wrote:roubaixtuesday wrote:
How so?
Previous pandemics spread very well prior to the invention of the jet engine, and the fundamental mortality and infectiousness of the virus suggest the same would be true for this one.
This one came from China directly, and also via the ski slopes of Italy. It came primarily through our airports. It came by foreign travel. As someone who doesn't do much foreign travel I feel that I have been gifted this by those who do. There is no chance of bio-security while people travel so freely and so often.
Sure, but it would have got here regardless, and would still have expanded exponentially once it did.
Hmmm.
So "
it would have got here regardless.... ". This seems to contradict your notion that various curbs on normal behaviours, such as going for a bike ride for more than half an hour or so, will make some sort of difference. If it's going to "
get here regardless" then are any of the social distancing measures of use? I hope so and will keep following them. Presumably you yourself think it OK to take a plane flight or two, though, as the virus will "get
there regardless"?
So, the virus "
would still have expanded exponentially once it did [get here]". If this is so, what are all these social distancing measures for?
In short, you seem to be saying two contradictory things.
Myself I feel the only certainties are:
* It's a pandemic and there is no preventative measure or "herd immunity" so most of us will get it at some time.
* Transmission rates can be slowed by behaviours such as social distancing.
* The death rate may be reduced if the transmission rate can be slowed enough to spread the load on hospital and other health facilities that can reduce the ill effects in those most affected and/or vulnerable to the effects of the virus.
* Hysteria, panic and other mind-states wrought in the general population by mass media sensationalism and government inability to make and speak sensible policy will cause additional harm over and above that caused by the virus.
* In addition, ineptitude and irrelevancies emitted by the government will bring them and any good recommendations they make into disrepute. People will be (already are) ignoring the advice in toto, which will then increase transmission rates.
Cugel
“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence are usually the slaves of some defunct economist”.
John Maynard Keynes