Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

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Phileas
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Phileas » 29 Mar 2020, 5:23am

The utility cyclist wrote:...for C.19 it will be far too late and not worth bothering with, better to save the money and use, if you are to vaccinate, to concentrate on the other more virulent ailments that kill more people every year. Remember when Labour spent £1/2Bn on Swine flu vaccines that were worthless, one of the big benefactors of that was GlaxoSmithKline ... now who amongst the chief advisers for C.19 is directly employed connected to them, oh yeah, that would be Mr Vallance! :roll:
3.4% vaccine protection for new strains https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practic ... e-of-time/


That’s flu vaccine. AIUI , flu virus changes a lot, this coronavirus doesn’t.
From Evening Standard (among others)
https://apple.news/AL3yaQyiuQ3mUMWRPpV-7gw
The genetic code of Covid-19 has been relatively slow to mutate during its global spread so a future vaccine could remain effective over a long period, research has suggested.
Two independent studies by teams of infectious diseases scientists helping Italy's fight against coronavirus have reported they found the fast-proliferating pathogen to be reasonably stable.
The findings will add to a better understanding of the virus and how it spreads - and raise hopes that a future vaccine could have a higher rate of effectiveness against the strain.
The studies were carried out by Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute for Infectious Diseases in Rome and the forensic division of the department of biomedical sciences and public health at Ancona University Hospital.
[/quote]

Phileas
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Phileas » 29 Mar 2020, 5:37am

The utility cyclist wrote:
Phileas wrote:Covid-19 patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... SApp_Other

Again, there's a bias in that isn't there, it's as plain as the nose on your face! :roll:

I guess you didn’t read it because the tone of the article suggests a lot of ventilators are being used pointlessly to keep hopeless cases alive, which seems to be somewhat supportive of your general attitude.

merseymouth
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby merseymouth » 29 Mar 2020, 8:21am

Why this obsession with grinding statistics smaller and smaller? All mathematical models are subject to pure random chance, so why not just relax and smell the coffee. Mass depression will surely be the outcome if you don't lighten up!
I'll offer my light touch - Did you hear about the constipated mathematician? He worked it out with a pencil! MM

Oldjohnw
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Oldjohnw » 29 Mar 2020, 8:46am

merseymouth wrote:Why this obsession with grinding statistics smaller and smaller? All mathematical models are subject to pure random chance, so why not just relax and smell the coffee. Mass depression will surely be the outcome if you don't lighten up!
I'll offer my light touch - Did you hear about the constipated mathematician? He worked it out with a pencil! MM


I believe the stats are important especially in trying to figure out where something is going so that appropriate preparations can be made.

But one reason why we have scientists advising and politicians deciding is so that the scientists are reminded: these are are not just statistics but people - constituents, if you like to whom the politicians are accountable.

So let us remember when we say things like 'just 1%' or 'just the elderly or those with a prior medical condition' we are talking of people: parents, grandparents, children, siblings, friends, spouses.
John

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 29 Mar 2020, 8:58am

Visualisation of NY situation for those blethering on about flu rates.

Image

Bonefishblues
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Bonefishblues » 29 Mar 2020, 9:01am

I didn't see the red line at first :shock:

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661-Pete
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby 661-Pete » 29 Mar 2020, 9:10am

This makes interesting reading.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

The only comment I feel like making, is that perhaps PETA (peta.org.uk) have got the right message after all. I'm minded to sign up. :roll: If I survive this, that is.
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).

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Cugel
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Cugel » 29 Mar 2020, 9:36am

merseymouth wrote:Why this obsession with grinding statistics smaller and smaller? All mathematical models are subject to pure random chance, so why not just relax and smell the coffee. Mass depression will surely be the outcome if you don't lighten up!
I'll offer my light touch - Did you hear about the constipated mathematician? He worked it out with a pencil! MM


......"in logs" I think you'll find! :-)

Cugel, who uses plenty of roughage, of many grades of roughness.

DaveReading
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby DaveReading » 29 Mar 2020, 9:46am

merseymouth wrote:Why this obsession with grinding statistics smaller and smaller? All mathematical models are subject to pure random chance, so why not just relax and smell the coffee. Mass depression will surely be the outcome if you don't lighten up!


Another way of looking at it is that every calculation published to date which quotes death rate, survival rate, etc is essentially a fraction where the numerator may be known, but the denominator is a best-guess and should be therefore treated with caution.

Only when there is random sample testing of the population will it be possible to estimate that denominator (i.e. the number of infected people) with any degree of confidence.

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Cugel
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Cugel » 29 Mar 2020, 9:49am

Oldjohnw wrote:
merseymouth wrote:Why this obsession with grinding statistics smaller and smaller? All mathematical models are subject to pure random chance, so why not just relax and smell the coffee. Mass depression will surely be the outcome if you don't lighten up!
I'll offer my light touch - Did you hear about the constipated mathematician? He worked it out with a pencil! MM


I believe the stats are important especially in trying to figure out where something is going so that appropriate preparations can be made.

But one reason why we have scientists advising and politicians deciding is so that the scientists are reminded: these are are not just statistics but people - constituents, if you like to whom the politicians are accountable.

So let us remember when we say things like 'just 1%' or 'just the elderly or those with a prior medical condition' we are talking of people: parents, grandparents, children, siblings, friends, spouses.


Although your view is normal, understandable and in many ways to be recommended for it's general inclination to sympathetically feel the angst and suffering of others ..... it's also potentially dangerous.

It's an old philosophy saw. posed in many guises: "You are at the points of a railway junction with a runaway train coming your way. Switch left will kill just your two children waiting in a carriage down the siding; right will kill twenty other people on the train coming the other way. Which way do you set the points"?

And variations.

The huge danger in this situation is that we become utterly focussed on COVID deaths and ignore all other problems, including some deaths (perhaps induced well down the historical line) that we generate by our immediate and blinkered response to COVID deaths and nothing else.

That's not to say that reasonable and well thought out procedures shouldn't be adopted to try to prevent unnecessary COVID deaths, so please don't reply with some dismissive remark that suggests I want to do away with medical science, as you've previously remarked. But we need to retain a sense of proportion and not make over-emotive, panicky decisions in a mood of low (or high) hysteria.

It's no good thing to allow decisions to be informed by nothing other than our ideological (including religious) catechisms. That also might include ideological catechisms of the scientific ilk, since there is no absolute and certain science describing pandemics, just "what we know is better or worse practice from historical cases and current unbiased data".

Cugel
Last edited by Cugel on 29 Mar 2020, 12:13pm, edited 2 times in total.

Oldjohnw
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Oldjohnw » 29 Mar 2020, 9:59am

Obviously I'm some stupid, dangerous religious (actually I'm not religious) luddite. My views are obviously irrelevant so I'll just keep them to myself. Humanity, it appears, is old fashioned and unscientific.
Last edited by Oldjohnw on 29 Mar 2020, 10:33am, edited 1 time in total.
John

merseymouth
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby merseymouth » 29 Mar 2020, 10:12am

Morning all, Sadly this thread has become as interesting as Compulsory Contemplative Navel Watching! Statistical comparison in an endless stream :cry: .
Some say that the numbers involved relate directly to real people? Well, I've never understood the concept of a percentage of a person existing?
Such statistical dribble achieves, in my opinion, sod all!
Offer a way out not merely keep regurgitating endless number crunching. Even Adam Smith would have got bored by now with such enlightenment!
IGIMNCB MM

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al_yrpal
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby al_yrpal » 29 Mar 2020, 10:22am

merseymouth wrote:Morning all, Sadly this thread has become as interesting as Compulsory Contemplative Navel Watching! Statistical comparison in an endless stream :cry: .
Some say that the numbers involved relate directly to real people? Well, I've never understood the concept of a percentage of a person existing?
Such statistical dribble achieves, in my opinion, sod all!
Offer a way out not merely keep regurgitating endless number crunching. Even Adam Smith would have got bored by now with such enlightenment!
IGIMNCB MM


+1

Personally I thought our parrot discussion was more enlightening but that got canned :lol:

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. Make a difference...

merseymouth
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby merseymouth » 29 Mar 2020, 10:43am

Morning Al :D , With regards to the Parrot link I have o admit to having made an error :shock: .
I cited that the parrot was in the Secret of the Unicorn, a Herge's Tin Tin story :oops: :oops: :oops: . Nope it was in "The Broken Ear".
Well the parrot flies around causing mayhem, screaming "Grrreat Greedy Guts"! Quite apt with all of the hoarding and panic buying as f late!
So how many other parrots have caused interest in the literary world? Well RL Stevenson's Captain Flint leaps to mind, but how many more, other than the late, departed, gone to meet it's maker, from Monty Python can you come up with?
Leave out the percentages & decimal points, keep non-numerical. IGIMNCB MM

Psamathe
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Psamathe » 29 Mar 2020, 10:46am

A slightly different and horrendous story about Tesco's attitude to the vulnerable. From an independent Care Home caring for senile and those with dementia
https://en-gb.facebook.com/pg/AveleyLodge/posts/?ref=page_internal 20 March at 03:20 Post wrote:We'd just like everyone to know that having been extremely loyal customers to Tesco's for many years, taking delivery of their goods twice a week and paying for the prime delivery slots, we have been totally and utterly abandoned by them in our hour of need. Having spent many hours on the telephone the last few days waiting for customer services to speak to us, we have this morning been informed that despite us being a care home with 25 vulnerable, elderly individuals that rely and depend upon on us and our hardworking staff for everything, we have been told we have to compete for delivery slots and supplies like all other domestic customers. Tesco's also said they will not increase certain supplies to look after 25 people, they will not help us by giving us priority access to delivery slots and basically have refused to help us in any way. Our managers and staff (who are classed as keyworkers) have been out to several stores at the crack of dawn most mornings to get essentials to be greeted with empty shelves and this is putting them and our residents at risk of picking up the virus as we're meant to be self isolating as much as possible to stop us taking the virus into the home. Thanks Tesco's for your (lack of) support! This will be remembered when this is all over and we'll return the support!!!! If anyone at Tesco's reads this and would like to speak to us, or at the very least offer some support, then please call us .....

Apparently, after the Facebook posts locals took round food supplies and the local Waitrose and Aldi made emergency deliveries to the care home (who had to feed their residents who were totally dependent on them.

Even is Tesco had no queues and full shelves I'd never purchase from them again with behaviour like that.

Ian