Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

[fullupandslowingdown]

the poor chap and his ms has now caught the virus too. Apparently he has diabetes so that could be why he wants off the ship as they can't guarantee him the care he needs including diet. I imagine when you sign up for a cruise, you expect to be floating around the world for a set time, having a level of interaction with other cultures that suits your predilections. You plan for reasonable events, but being held for weeks extra in quarantine might not be one. My sister in law was in spain when the volcanic ash business erupted. She wrangled another 2 weeks holiday off work luckily in a decent hotel

[Psamathe]

Report I find really shocking and were I one of those without infection I'd be decidedly hacked-off about

Despite the objections of US health officials, the US State Department ultimately decided to evacuate Americans infected with coronavirus on a plane with healthy people, putting them at risk of infection.

Ian

[Vorpal]

Report I find really shocking and were I one of those without infection I'd be decidedly hacked-off about

Despite the objections of US health officials, the US State Department ultimately decided to evacuate Americans infected with coronavirus on a plane with healthy people, putting them at risk of infection.

Ian

But they all came off the same cruise ship where initially poor quarantine practices were in place. I doubt that the plane journey substantially risked the exposure opportunities of those who did not register positive for the virus.

[Psamathe]

Report I find really shocking and were I one of those without infection I'd be decidedly hacked-off about

Despite the objections of US health officials, the US State Department ultimately decided to evacuate Americans infected with coronavirus on a plane with healthy people, putting them at risk of infection.

Ian

But they all came off the same cruise ship where initially poor quarantine practices were in place. I doubt that the plane journey substantially risked the exposure opportunities of those who did not register positive for the virus.

But on a plane you are significantly closer to others who we know are infected. Very different from being isolated in a cabin.

I've seen the allegations about poor practices on the cruise ship but reports interviewing an "expert" have been very vague as to exactly what these poor practices were. All I've seen is the allegations with nothing specific. But still very different from having an infected person in the seat behind you on an aircraft (or in front) and whilst the 50% not dumped overboard is filtered it does a fair amount of circulating first.

CDC thought it was a bad idea.

Ian

[Vorpal]

Report I find really shocking and were I one of those without infection I'd be decidedly hacked-off about


Ian

But they all came off the same cruise ship where initially poor quarantine practices were in place. I doubt that the plane journey substantially risked the exposure opportunities of those who did not register positive for the virus.

But on a plane you are significantly closer to others who we know are infected. Very different from being isolated in a cabin.

I've seen the allegations about poor practices on the cruise ship but reports interviewing an "expert" have been very vague as to exactly what these poor practices were. All I've seen is the allegations with nothing specific. But still very different from having an infected person in the seat behind you on an aircraft (or in front) and whilst the 50% not dumped overboard is filtered it does a fair amount of circulating first.

CDC thought it was a bad idea.

Ian

CDC didn't want them evacuated at all.

They did use a quarantine area on the plane with plastic screens.

[Psamathe]

But they all came off the same cruise ship where initially poor quarantine practices were in place. I doubt that the plane journey substantially risked the exposure opportunities of those who did not register positive for the virus.

But on a plane you are significantly closer to others who we know are infected. Very different from being isolated in a cabin.

I've seen the allegations about poor practices on the cruise ship but reports interviewing an "expert" have been very vague as to exactly what these poor practices were. All I've seen is the allegations with nothing specific. But still very different from having an infected person in the seat behind you on an aircraft (or in front) and whilst the 50% not dumped overboard is filtered it does a fair amount of circulating first.

CDC thought it was a bad idea.

Ian

CDC didn't want them evacuated at all.

They did use a quarantine area on the plane with plastic screens.

Makes sense

But on an aircraft you have an air circulation system so I suspect a few hastily bodged in plastic screens would be pretty ineffective. That said, I'm not paranoid (I has happily travelling round mixing with Chinese people (Chinese New Year) in SE Asia ...), just that when you are trying to avoid infection, sitting in an enclosed space breathing circulating air with known infected people ... not the best way to avoid getting infected.

Ian

[Vorpal]

But on a plane you are significantly closer to others who we know are infected. Very different from being isolated in a cabin.

I've seen the allegations about poor practices on the cruise ship but reports interviewing an "expert" have been very vague as to exactly what these poor practices were. All I've seen is the allegations with nothing specific. But still very different from having an infected person in the seat behind you on an aircraft (or in front) and whilst the 50% not dumped overboard is filtered it does a fair amount of circulating first.

CDC thought it was a bad idea.

Ian

CDC didn't want them evacuated at all.

They did use a quarantine area on the plane with plastic screens.

Makes sense

But on an aircraft you have an air circulation system so I suspect a few hastily bodged in plastic screens would be pretty ineffective. That said, I'm not paranoid (I has happily travelling round mixing with Chinese people (Chinese New Year) in SE Asia ...), just that when you are trying to avoid infection, sitting in an enclosed space breathing circulating air with known infected people ... not the best way to avoid getting infected.

Ian

They haven't made public what was or wasn't done with the air circulation system, but airplanes normally have biological filters in the air circulation system, and there is technology available to filter out influenza, etc. viruses. My guess would be that they used enhanced filtration; I imagine that the Chinese have, by now, tested biological filters designed to filter out viruses, against this particular virus. Of course I don't know, and I'm not going to take the time to figure it out.

US officials said they learned of the positive test results as the evacuees were preparing to return to America on two chartered Boeing 747s.

“These individuals were moved in the most expeditious and safe manner to a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft to isolate them in accordance with standard protocols,” the statement said.

Implies that the air supply is either separate or sufficiently filtered.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/17 ... alifornia/

[Psamathe]

CDC didn't want them evacuated at all.

They did use a quarantine area on the plane with plastic screens.

Makes sense

But on an aircraft you have an air circulation system so I suspect a few hastily bodged in plastic screens would be pretty ineffective. That said, I'm not paranoid (I has happily travelling round mixing with Chinese people (Chinese New Year) in SE Asia ...), just that when you are trying to avoid infection, sitting in an enclosed space breathing circulating air with known infected people ... not the best way to avoid getting infected.

Ian

They haven't made public what was or wasn't done with the air circulation system, but airplanes normally have biological filters in the air circulation system, and there is technology available to filter out influenza, etc. viruses. My guess would be that they used enhanced filtration; I imagine that the Chinese have, by now, tested biological filters designed to filter out viruses, against this particular virus. Of course I don't know, and I'm not going to take the time to figure it out.

US officials said they learned of the positive test results as the evacuees were preparing to return to America on two chartered Boeing 747s.

“These individuals were moved in the most expeditious and safe manner to a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft to isolate them in accordance with standard protocols,” the statement said.

Implies that the air supply is either separate or sufficiently filtered.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/17 ... alifornia/

Impossible to know because reports also say

... but a last-minute decision from Donald Trump's State Department put the patients on the same plane, the Post reports.

So if it was "last-minute" not much opportunity to set-up alternative air circulation systems.

Just seems a bit daft mixing infected and non-infected people in a confined space for quite a few hours.

Ian

[fullupandslowingdown]

up until now, those standard protocols have IMHO been woefully inadequate, like reusing the screwholes on the stabledoor where the bolt was forced off after little Red Rum, Sunchaser and Pegasus had hot-hoofed it to pastures green and far far away from the contagion. There is still debate by doctors whether the disease can be spread by asymptomatic carriers for more than 14 days, and that even the tests don't indicate infection reliably.

I fear this virus could trundle it's way around the world quite happily for the next 6 months plus, possibly becoming established along with other hardy perennial diseases. Regular flu strains usually have a mortally rate of less than 1 in a thousand across the population. Depending on how many undeclared infections there really are, covid-19 looks like having 10 times that mortality rate. Most countries now have had cases, and some have had disproportionate mortality rates assuming they have been honest or competent at tracking infection rates. Iran says it's had 4 deaths out of only 18 cases. Numbers that seem worrying. Of course the health of the victims plays a big part, and the fact that maybe Iran was caught off guard and hadn't prepared for any cases and as covid-19 seems can be mistaken for regular flu or pneumonia, delaying treatment.

We live in interesting times, governments refusing to grapple climate chance, seemingly willing to wait until the very last moment, chicken on the railroad style, before all out action. I note that every time some younger person dies, the authorities are quick to hint that they had some underlying medical condition. Right from the start in China, the diabetes connection has been trotted out every moment. Trouble is, like with all the other issues that we discuss on the forum, we, the masses don't have access to the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Two 747 planes.... That implies that either the tests are still taking too long to show positives, or that there was more than one plane worth of ill passengers, or logically one would put all the infected on one plane and all the clear on the other, even if it meant squeezing a few in. I for one wouldn't have minded my luggage been delayed if it meant a seat on the healthier plane. I'm not convinced that if medics wearing protective clothing have caught and died from covid-19, that an airplane's air conditioning system could be relied upon to scrub viruses out for a 11 to 13 hour flight from Japan to the US.

editional info...

Pall cabin air filters have a virus removal efficiency of greater than 99.999%. Airlines who select Pall are using the best available technology for filtering the recirculated air on board their aircraft.

https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/m ... familypage

OK. Maybe the air conditioning system can scrub the viruses out, but that doesn't stop the viruses from being airborne from the point of expulsion by one infected passenger until it's sucked into the aircon passing the noses of other passengers. Time will tell.

[Psamathe]

.....
Two 747 planes.... That implies that either the tests are still taking too long to show positives, or that there was more than one plane worth of ill passengers, or logically one would put all the infected on one plane and all the clear on the other, even if it meant squeezing a few in. I for one wouldn't have minded my luggage been delayed if it meant a seat on the healthier plane. I'm not convinced that if medics wearing protective clothing have caught and died from covid-19, that an airplane's air conditioning system could be relied upon to scrub viruses out for a 11 to 13 hour flight from Japan to the US.

editional info...

Pall cabin air filters have a virus removal efficiency of greater than 99.999%. Airlines who select Pall are using the best available technology for filtering the recirculated air on board their aircraft.

https://shop.pall.com/us/en/aerospace/m ... familypage

OK. Maybe the air conditioning system can scrub the viruses out, but that doesn't stop the viruses from being airborne from the point of expulsion by one infected passenger until it's sucked into the aircon passing the noses of other passengers. Time will tell.

A lot must depend on the viral load needed to cause an infection. I have no specialist knowledge but from the public press reports I've read I have the impression people have very little idea about that aspect. Just as we have not a lot of idea about how many people are asymptomatic or have trivial (and thus medically ignored) infections. A bit like Zika where the majority of infections go unnoticed.

Ian

[fullupandslowingdown]

From Official Chinese reports, on or about... (NB : these are running totals)
9th December first tests showed 59 infections, zero deaths
21st December 291 infections and 6 deaths
22nd December 440 infections and 17 deaths
23rd December 500 infections and 18 deaths.

fast forward to Iran.

19th February suspected 25 infections and 2 deaths
21st February confirmed 18 infections.... and 4 deaths
24th February reported 61 infections and 12 deaths
25th February Iran's deputy Health Minister infected, 95 reported cases and 16 deaths.

someone is lying to the world. Either China covered up right from the beginning, or/and Iran is covering up now. Whom trusts our own government following the murder of Dr David Kelly over the weapons of mass distrust debacle. If you have friends and family in health occupations, you might want to be really really nice to them now. We're going to need everyone on board long before April.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the travel advice for Italy, which attracts about three million British visitors each year, has not changed and there were no plans to stop flights from the country.

"If you look at Italy, they stopped all flights from China and they're now the worst affected country in Europe," he said.
....
"It is not yet clear that it will become a pandemic - the number of cases in China has been slowing over the last couple of weeks and we are relatively confident that information is correct."

even a few hours ago ( 14:09 25/02/2020)

Britons returning from northern Italy are being told to self-isolate in the UK if they show coronavirus symptoms

only about an hour ago it was updated to say:

any Britons who have been to 11 quarantined towns in Italy must self-isolate.

as private Frazer would say We're doomed

[mercalia]

Time to stock up so you dont need to go to the shops as soon all you will find out there are corona-zombies ( thats a stage the govts have decided not to tell any one about, yet)

[Mick F]

Not been following this thread specifically, but here's a couple of sea stories from my life in the RN.

Spend some time ashore on leave, and circulate with "normal" civilian people plus your children picking stuff up at school.
Many of us family-men doing likewise, and we are on leave up and down the country.

We go back to sea.
The whole of the ship's company go down with colds and sniffles and all suffer for a week or two, and sometimes it goes round and round and round. After a month, we're all heathy and fit, but then go on leave when the ship gets back, and the whole cycle begins again!

We went out the Far East in 1988 and some went ashore for a few days into Egypt and stayed over at a hotel to see the pyramids etc whilst the ship transited the Suez Canal. They met us as we exited into the Red Sea.

Two or three days later across the Indian Ocean, some people went down with vomiting and diarrhoea bugs. Spread like wildfire around the messdecks even to people who never went ashore. It took a week or three until we were clear of it, but one or two officers carried on suffering with it even when we'd reached Singapore. It was discovered that one of the chefs was a carrier ........... who had no symptoms at all.

[mercalia]

So Iran's top health guy has got it.

thats a bit of a surprize. where has he been hanging out?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51628484

[fullupandslowingdown]

In my estimation in the press there is the unwritten but hinted at suggestion that the rapid spread in Iran has been due to their religious belief in the Almighty who protects the righteous and that's why they have so far refused to close down the religious shrines, and hence take steps to stop wildfire transmission. Is it a problem when religious beliefs stop known scientific measures been taken to protect? Over the years there's been a wide variety of this type of issue such as children of devout Jehovah Witnesses dying for the sake of an operation or a blood transfusion. Some pastor in I forget which country claiming he could cure HIV through laying on the hands and prayer. etc etc. No doubt curing covid-19 will be added to the list of vitamin C's abilities

I presume the health minister, mind you the deputy, not the top man who was too cautious/clever/afraid* delete as appropriate, caught it while visiting patients in hospital and telling them it's absolutely nothing to worry about, and won't kill you, just lies made up by our western foes to scare us.

Mind you. If Iran becomes a major source of infection it will be the fault of the US for imposing sanctions that have included medical supplies. It's no wonder that Iran could be struggling to cope, when it's hospitals are already half empty of equipment and supplies because of sanctions. Cynical me thinks this might be a long game by trump. trump might not have ordered the creation of covid-19, but he could benefit from it. He lets Iran become over run by it. Then he says that Iran is planning to release infected people into the world because they refuse to close completely their borders. So he then orders Iran to be nuked to save the world. Except unbeknown to him, if you irradiate the covid-19 virus, it mutates into something unholy.

Welcome to the rise of the undead. Now where's my samurai sword....