Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

[niggle]

On a lighter note:

[pete75]

The risk of death seems to be greatest among those with "underlying conditions" and who suffer a severe attack of the disease. Is the severe attack caused by those conditions or do they cause death because the attack develops in severity.

[niggle]

My understanding is that both China and South Korea have tested population samples, so they have some idea about people with mild or asymptomatic infections.

Yes this, which is why the mortality rates have been repeatedly revised to lower figures.

[Psamathe]

....Certainly I think that large social gatherings should stop and my inclination would be towards a lower limit than 500. Closing schools is a real logistics issue but they are germ exchanges and the larger schools are particularly so. Circumstances vary but here in the UK I’d be inclined to let those children who can study from home do so instead of attending school.....

I have no idea about a 500 threshold as I'd think that one infected amongst 399 others would be pretty well as bad as 1 infected amongst 499, etc.

I'm uncertain about schools as the serious impacts and fatalities seem very age related, younger than 40 and the fatality rate is a lot lower. That said I don't know how many kids suffer badly but get through.

....I’m all for taking a moderated response but I’m also in favour of doing the simple and low cost preventative things too. The less unnecessary contact we have with each other (closing transmission pathways) the better our chances of limiting the spread and cost of this virus.

My worry about the UK's response at the moment is not what the Government is or isn't doing but the over-coverage from the press (mainly TV News). UK Government talks about the population not being able to sustain a stricter response for long but people tire very quickly from today's news, particularly when 90% of the coverage is repeating minimal information again and again. Big coverage "hot news" disappears very quickly and everybody loses interest. So there is a risk that as stronger reaction is required the population will have become saturated and wont pay much attention.

I tend to watch C4 News each evening but yesterday I found I turned the sound right down and read a book because the news (even with the "Corona Budget") was boring.

Ian

[Vorpal]

My understanding is that both China and South Korea have tested population samples, so they have some idea about people with mild or asymptomatic infections.

I hadn't heard that, interesting.

I think some of the data on asymptomatic comes from the Japanese cruise ship

Yes, cruise ships are another good place for studies. Even though the samples are relatively small, they were also in a 'closed' environment with relatively high exposure.

The one thing they did not have, though, that the Chinese found was significant, is (many) children. The Chinese found that Children were more likely to have mild, or asymptomatic cases & be virulent carriers. The level of transmission in family units was very much higher than for others (colleagues, community, etc.).

[Paulatic]

Ireland goes into Lockdown tonight it will be interesting to watch the outcome. After 14 days what do they do as I doubt it will have disappeared.
The whole thing reminds me of "The Survivors" back in the seventies.

[Vorpal]

Ireland goes into Lockdown tonight it will be interesting to watch the outcome. After 14 days what do they do as I doubt it will have disappeared.
The whole thing reminds me of "The Survivors" back in the seventies.

I think they will constantly be re-evaluating the situation. They know that the spread cannot be prevented. The governments and experts have to weigh the capabilities of the health systems and the risk to people against the economic harm and provision of essential services.

Things cannot remain shut down forever, but we also cannot (should not) risk overwhelming the health care systems, either.

Even without a compassionate view, the cost of many people sick and dying will be enormous. Companies must now weigh the economic burden of reducing work efficiency, or even closing offices against health and wellbeing and having employees sick and dying. I know that several of my colleagues fall into the 'vulnerable' groups, and I am relieved that my boss has all but ordered us to work from home.

[mercalia]

has any one heard/read whats happening in Russia?

[roubaixtuesday]

Ireland goes into Lockdown tonight it will be interesting to watch the outcome. After 14 days what do they do as I doubt it will have disappeared.
The whole thing reminds me of "The Survivors" back in the seventies.

The intention is probably to minimise the peak rather than have it "disappear".

See up thread comments on impact of overloading ICUs if allowed to rip.

[Oldjohnw]

The risk of death seems to be greatest among those with "underlying conditions" and who suffer a severe attack of the disease. Is the severe attack caused by those conditions or do they cause death because the attack develops in severity.

Both. Those with some conditions such as respiratory problems often have a supressed immune system. And secondary conditions often follow flu such as pneumonia, which is what kills.

[Carlton green]

....Certainly I think that large social gatherings should stop and my inclination would be towards a lower limit than 500. Closing schools is a real logistics issue but they are germ exchanges and the larger schools are particularly so. Circumstances vary but here in the UK I’d be inclined to let those children who can study from home do so instead of attending school.....

I have no idea about a 500 threshold as I'd think that one infected amongst 399 others would be pretty well as bad as 1 infected amongst 499, etc.

I'm uncertain about schools as the serious impacts and fatalities seem very age related, younger than 40 and the fatality rate is a lot lower. That said I don't know how many kids suffer badly but get through.

....I’m all for taking a moderated response but I’m also in favour of doing the simple and low cost preventative things too. The less unnecessary contact we have with each other (closing transmission pathways) the better our chances of limiting the spread and cost of this virus.

My worry about the UK's response at the moment is not what the Government is or isn't doing but the over-coverage from the press (mainly TV News). UK Government talks about the population not being able to sustain a stricter response for long but people tire very quickly from today's news, particularly when 90% of the coverage is repeating minimal information again and again. Big coverage "hot news" disappears very quickly and everybody loses interest. So there is a risk that as stronger reaction is required the population will have become saturated and wont pay much attention.

I tend to watch C4 News each evening but yesterday I found I turned the sound right down and read a book because the news (even with the "Corona Budget") was boring.

Ian

I’ve been picking up on Vorpols posts. The 500 people cap is a figure that the Norwegian Government has set. Note also her post (just above) about about transmission rates, children don’t tend to get sick themselves but are excellent transmission devices. With that transmission factor in mind it really would be sensible to consider closure of schools and particularly the large ones - my local secondary has over 1000 pupils in it all of whom could unwittingly be carriers.

[mattheus]

My worry about the UK's response at the moment is not what the Government is or isn't doing but the over-coverage from the press (mainly TV News). UK Government talks about the population not being able to sustain a stricter response for long but people tire very quickly from today's news, particularly when 90% of the coverage is repeating minimal information again and again. Big coverage "hot news" disappears very quickly and everybody loses interest. So there is a risk that as stronger reaction is required the population will have become saturated and wont pay much attention.

This seems a fair point, but that's modern news media for you, innit?
(They won't change - it's all about clicks/view-ing figures now, any sense of public service has long gone.)


It will be an interesting study in modern media stduies if we get a minor hurricane in the next fortnight - where will the reporters go? Will Farrage be interviewed about flood defence techniques??

[fullupandslowingdown]

Well scientists obviously think the virus is really serious. Look how these guys are wrapped up, except for the boss already in isolation, looking through the window

[Mick F]

.........Children were more likely to have mild, or asymptomatic cases & be virulent carriers.

Keep away from children.

Back in the old days, people hosted chicken pox parties and measles parties.
The kids at the parties got it, were ill, then became immune just like all the adults were.

This is different of course. This is a new virus and the adults aren't immune.

Keep away from children.

[Oldjohnw]

Numbers now 590. I think the word now is exponential.