Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

[Paulatic]

Got to love Glasgow

[Psamathe]

.....
Back in the old days, people hosted chicken pox parties and measles parties.
The kids at the parties got it, were ill, then became immune just like all the adults were.....

I remember going to them. Or rather we didn't have "parties" but when one child caught measles/german measles/mumps, his/her parents would telephone other parents and we'd all go round and play to try and catch the disease (we were just playing, not understanding disease or immunity).

I suspect any parent doing that these days would have social services on their case but it makes sense to me. I have an unfounded but strong feeling that the excessive disinfection and sanitisation that predominates these days results in peoples' immune systems being weaker and them having generally less immunity (less active immune systems, weaker response to new infections). Having been raised in the "expose them to it all" era, through my working life I maybe had one, maybe 2 days off sick my entire career where many younger staff seem to be forever taking time off sick. But all very subjective.

Remember the "As Kids" thing that periodically does the rounds of the internet - maybe not good advice but certainly some truths in it (if people don't know it, I'll post it).

Ian

[pwa]

As I understand it, this virus will spread until there are sufficient people out there who have already had it and become immune for it to become difficult for the virus to find new hosts. It takes a lot of us to catch it for that to happen. Maybe it's not practical, but if only the fitter among us could volunteer to be infected, stay out of circulation for a couple of weeks, then return to society with immunity. Because the virus will only recede when enough of us have had it. Containing it is only delaying.

[Psamathe]

Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'
...
Prof John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England, lambasted a lack of preparation and openness from the government and contrasted Britain’s response to that of Hong Kong.
...
“Right at the beginning of February, they [Hong Kong] adopted a total approach to this, which is what we should have done five weeks ago ourselves. They took a decision to work to three principles – of responding promptly, staying alert, working in an open and transparent manner,” he told the Guardian.

“Our lot haven’t been working openly and transparently. They’ve been doing it in a (non) smoke-filled room and just dribbling out stuff. The chief medical officer only appeared in public after about two weeks. Then they have had a succession of people bobbing up and disappearing. Public Health England’s been almost invisible.

Ian

[reohn2]

As I understand it, this virus will spread until there are sufficient people out there who have already had it and become immune for it to become difficult for the virus to find new hosts. It takes a lot of us to catch it for that to happen. Maybe it's not practical, but if only the fitter among us could volunteer to be infected, stay out of circulation for a couple of weeks, then return to society with immunity. Because the virus will only recede when enough of us have had it. Containing it is only delaying.

Containing it buys time for a vaccine to be developed and also keeps it away from the more vulnerable to it being fatal

[mercalia]

lidl Streatham empty shelves Monday 1pm

seems like the rush still on I was told they had been filled early morning

paper products


rice and pasta


also just a few bars of soap ( about 6-12 pkts) all liguid hand soap gone

about time Lidl limited numbers can be bought?

Tuesday 4pm. Now 3 days and empty shelves.
When I asked on Monday I dont think they were telling me the truth: the shelves were emptied some time on Saturday/Sunday

Their motto is very apt? When it's Gone it's Gone



In the end I went down to Sainsburys and got some bog roll. Their shelves were seriously depleted. I was told the ones I got had just been put out

Now the 4th day and still empty shelves as before. I also now notice the household cleansing material shelves are much depleted - the large bottles of bleach and cleaning liquids. Also the baby materials section is much depleted

5th day and they have just had a large consignment of loo paper and kitchen towels in. Didnt see any pasta or rice , also no self raising flour or hand soap other than a few bars. no baby materials left. Baked beans all gone again ( they had a large amount yesterday); no bleach.

[Oldjohnw]

As I understand it, this virus will spread until there are sufficient people out there who have already had it and become immune for it to become difficult for the virus to find new hosts. It takes a lot of us to catch it for that to happen. Maybe it's not practical, but if only the fitter among us could volunteer to be infected, stay out of circulation for a couple of weeks, then return to society with immunity. Because the virus will only recede when enough of us have had it. Containing it is only delaying.

Containing it buys time for a vaccine to be developed and also keeps it away from the more vulnerable to it being fatal

And it enables a pressured NHS to manage,

[pwa]

As I understand it, this virus will spread until there are sufficient people out there who have already had it and become immune for it to become difficult for the virus to find new hosts. It takes a lot of us to catch it for that to happen. Maybe it's not practical, but if only the fitter among us could volunteer to be infected, stay out of circulation for a couple of weeks, then return to society with immunity. Because the virus will only recede when enough of us have had it. Containing it is only delaying.

Containing it buys time for a vaccine to be developed and also keeps it away from the more vulnerable to it being fatal

I heard someone saying a vaccine might come in 18 months! Certainly we want the vulnerable protected, but they won't be safe in public places until the virus has passed through most of us, making further transmission unlikely. For the relatively fit amongst us it makes little difference if we get it today or six weeks from now, but the sooner we get it and recover the sooner we stop being a possible means of transmission.

[reohn2]

As I understand it, this virus will spread until there are sufficient people out there who have already had it and become immune for it to become difficult for the virus to find new hosts. It takes a lot of us to catch it for that to happen. Maybe it's not practical, but if only the fitter among us could volunteer to be infected, stay out of circulation for a couple of weeks, then return to society with immunity. Because the virus will only recede when enough of us have had it. Containing it is only delaying.

Containing it buys time for a vaccine to be developed and also keeps it away from the more vulnerable to it being fatal

And it enables a pressured NHS to manage,

Quite!

[pwa]

Containing it buys time for a vaccine to be developed and also keeps it away from the more vulnerable to it being fatal

And it enables a pressured NHS to manage,

Quite!

That last point is the main thing. Delaying it means it will hit hardest after the winter peak for flu etc.

[Psamathe]

...

.... Didnt see any pasta or rice......

I wonder what would happen if the supermarkets posted a sign above the pasta along the lines of "Pasta is Italian". Cynic in me suspects the shelves would remain full and untouched.

Ian

[Vorpal]

Well, they've just closed all schools, nurseries, etc. in Norway.

[pwa]

Well, they've just closed all schools, nurseries, etc. in Norway.

I think they are on the point of doing the same here in South Wales. But what happens if lots of people stay protected for, say, a month, then emerge to normal life? Will the virus have simply passed by, or will it be there and waiting for them?

[David9694]

If we “do an Italy” here, that strikes me as a card the government can only play maybe once in say 12 months, and even then it strikes me as a long-shot for most Western societies in terms of achieving compliance all the way through.

We don’t all wake up on day 15, having done our penance, with the virus threat gone, I don’t think. The government can only really do what people will accept and they have to weigh up the known downsides and the likely unintended consequences.

The item linked upthread on medium.Com I find quite compelling. I don’t think the guy is selling anything nor trying to prank, scare or disrupt us. The main point is that what you can see and point to in terms diagnosed people is the tip of an all too real iceberg. That tip only surfaces a few days later, meanwhile the underneath (Next week’s tip) is still getting bigger and bigger.

His pitch reminded me of a remark I heard in a clinical presentation to the effect that the national rate of the condition they talked about - I forget what it was - was known, so too was the numbers the hospital saw from the local population - we could be pretty sure therefore that there were a lot of undiagnosed people out there.

I also remember the presentation given by the respiratory specialists - great guys, but don’t get referred to them - they can help, but cures, as in reversing damage Incurred are elusive.

More positively it’s marvellous what Plastics can do these days to re-build say a shattered limb.

Update on My Co-op: the signs limiting certain high demand items are pasted on the sliding doors, so they disappear from view when you get within one metre. All the loo roll had gone, the stick sign for the floor display standing forlornly with nothing at its feet. A positive sign that an Army of cute puppies is bringing more?

I needed to go into town, and so got some loo rolls in Lidl where I had a look at their cycling offers. I’ve seen and heard the horror-stories about people filling whole trollies with loo roll - that wasn’t in evidence today in my brief visit.

Finally, I missed Nigel Farage’s pitch on the BBC - did he have anything useful to say?

[mercalia]

Anyone with a new persistent cough or high temperature is now advised to self-isolate for seven days, as the UK government moves to the "delay" phase of its plan to tackle coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856

well I wonder what will happen if some poor soul is out and about with a cough? lynched? vigilantes?