Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

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mjr
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby mjr » 26 Mar 2020, 8:31pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
RH20 wrote:It seems that Italy, Spain, and France appear to be in almost total lockdown, yet still the number of people contracting coronavirus is rising. Could anyone explain this? If more and more people are confined to their homes why are the numbers rising?


I guess some combination of

1. Lag time: takes a week to show symptoms, then another week to get serious enough to get into hospital and show up on the stats

This is the main reason:
Italy locked down 11 March, 2 weeks ago;
Spain 14 March;
France 17 March;
UK 23 March.

We may see bad news for weeks yet.

3. Shutdown isn't total

4. Some people will be flouting it

Fortunately, it doesn't have to be total, but just enough that the infection is below one infection per victim and so it reduces.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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Ellieb
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Ellieb » 26 Mar 2020, 8:34pm

OK so yes people are dying of this but people are dying every day anyway.The average ranges from 30,000+ per month to 50,000+ per month year on year.

Maybe if people used the "lockdown" to calm down look into statistics and facts there wouldn't be so much conflict?

If it's nothing out of the ordinary why is this happening?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 24541.html

& this?
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... d-11959994

You can quote all the stats you like but what is happening in the real world is a bit challenging for your cosy world view.
A couple of weeks until the peak hits in the UK (assuming people obey the rules)

fullupandslowingdown
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby fullupandslowingdown » 26 Mar 2020, 8:36pm

Thursday saw a change in the way NHS England and the Department of Health are reporting deaths.

The latest figures are for a 24-hour period, but Wednesday's were not - they were only for eight hours - from 0900 to 1700 on Tuesday 24 March.

Thursday's figures are for a full 24-hour period, from 1700 on Tuesday 24 March to 1700 on Wednesday 25 March.

So Wednesday's rise of 28 reported deaths and the 107 reported deaths on Thursday cannot be directly compared.


Maybe that's how China managed to get their numbers down, only count those passing away during the day:

A sample of 4,920 disease-related deaths from New York City for 1979 (8.7 percent of all relevant data from New York City's files) showed a 60 percent rise in death rate beginning at 2 a.m. and reaching a peak at 8 a.m. A smaller peak was also noted at 6 p.m. The rise in human mortality beginning at 2 a.m. and peaking at 8 a.m. might be explained by: (1) artifact of deaths occurring anytime during the night that are discovered after daybreak, (2) effect of less efficient health care between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m., and (3) disease processes that somehow increase risk of death between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m.


yes, I know that the previous day's figures are for full 24 hour periods - I'm not quite that dumb

mercalia
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby mercalia » 26 Mar 2020, 8:46pm

The heavy hand of the law is now in force

People ignoring tougher restrictions on movement could be hit with a £60 fine initially and another for £120 for a second offence.

New powers given to police in England mean no-one will be allowed to leave their home "without reasonable excuse".

The measures come into force on Thursday and will last six months, with a review every three weeks.

To ensure people stay at home and avoid non-essential travel, police will be able to order people to go home, leave an area or disperse.


question. how are the cops going to nick you if you stay 2 m away from them? thats also a law?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52053527
Last edited by Graham on 26 Mar 2020, 10:25pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: So . .

nsew
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby nsew » 26 Mar 2020, 8:52pm

mjr wrote:

We may see bad news for weeks yet.



We will see and hear very bad news for the foreseeable future.

Oldjohnw
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Oldjohnw » 26 Mar 2020, 9:04pm

I realize that my sentiments are rather quaint and somewhat eccentric round here but I think it's pretty tragic that over 100 people have died in the last 24 hours that would not have - at least just yet - were it not for this virus. Some might otherwise have reasonably expected to live for several more decades.
John

llayercake
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby llayercake » 26 Mar 2020, 9:07pm

RH20 wrote:It seems that Italy, Spain, and France appear to be in almost total lockdown, yet still the number of people contracting coronavirus is rising. Could anyone explain this? If more and more people are confined to their homes why are the numbers rising?


Because the government screwed up early on basically.
I mentioned the Valencia football game in Italy before but got the location wrong according to the following article. I wasn't aware that they allowed supporters to travel to the UK so late in the situation though.

The linked article seems pretty close to what we are seeing/hearing on the ground here in Spain.
The government are expecting it to get worse before it gets better due to delay in the onset of symptoms.

I believe that someone is trying to take Madrid municipality to court for negligence for allowing demonstrations to take place during a world wide health emergency.

.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... e-analysis

Edited. Forgot the link, doh!
Last edited by llayercake on 26 Mar 2020, 10:58pm, edited 2 times in total.

llayercake
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby llayercake » 26 Mar 2020, 9:13pm

fullupandslowingdown wrote:
Thursday saw a change in the way NHS England and the Department of Health are reporting deaths.

The latest figures are for a 24-hour period, but Wednesday's were not - they were only for eight hours - from 0900 to 1700 on Tuesday 24 March.

Thursday's figures are for a full 24-hour period, from 1700 on Tuesday 24 March to 1700 on Wednesday 25 March.

So Wednesday's rise of 28 reported deaths and the 107 reported deaths on Thursday cannot be directly compared.


Maybe that's how China managed to get their numbers down, only count those passing away during the day:

A sample of 4,920 disease-related deaths from New York City for 1979 (8.7 percent of all relevant data from New York City's files) showed a 60 percent rise in death rate beginning at 2 a.m. and reaching a peak at 8 a.m. A smaller peak was also noted at 6 p.m. The rise in human mortality beginning at 2 a.m. and peaking at 8 a.m. might be explained by: (1) artifact of deaths occurring anytime during the night that are discovered after daybreak, (2) effect of less efficient health care between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m., and (3) disease processes that somehow increase risk of death between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m.


yes, I know that the previous day's figures are for full 24 hour periods - I'm not quite that dumb


China's decrease in reported new infections may also be a little out if they are using the same testing kits that the Spanish government just bought from them, they have an accuracy of about 30%, doh!
Hopefully we got a discount...

Ellieb
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Ellieb » 26 Mar 2020, 9:59pm

Aren't you the guy that nearly had kittens when I started suggesting I would make my ebike bigger and faster?
IIRC I made it more and more ludicrous well past the point of stupidity and you were so wound up you didn't even spot what I was doing...


Nope not me. I was the bloke who thought he had a bit in common with you because we were both once motorbike couriers. Seems a crisis has brought out a side in you that wasn't evident from most of your earlier posts. sad

PH
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby PH » 26 Mar 2020, 10:05pm

Ellieb wrote:Nope not me. I was the bloke who thought he had a bit in common with you because we were both once motorbike couriers. Seems a crisis has brought out a side in you that wasn't evident from most of your earlier posts. sad

OT - Ellieb, do you think you could make the quotes so it's clear who you're quoting, would make it easier to follow (Or ignore)

PH
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby PH » 26 Mar 2020, 10:09pm

kwackers wrote:What I admit to is winding up folk who are incapable of independent thought,

however clever you think you are at it, maybe this isn't the right thread to gloat about it.

Ellieb
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Ellieb » 26 Mar 2020, 10:13pm

PH wrote:
Ellieb wrote:Nope not me. I was the bloke who thought he had a bit in common with you because we were both once motorbike couriers. Seems a crisis has brought out a side in you that wasn't evident from most of your earlier posts. sad

OT - Ellieb, do you think you could make the quotes so it's clear who you're quoting, would make it easier to follow (Or ignore)

OT +1 Either the formatting isn't working for you or something else is going on cos that's what I've done... I think

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 26 Mar 2020, 10:20pm

I suggest that if members believe a poster is trolling, they report to mods rather than responding.

A response being what trolls crave, after all.

nsew
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby nsew » 26 Mar 2020, 10:21pm

Those people across the country that applauded the nhs staff, care workers and shop workers. We’re a great country with only a relatively few ‘shits’.

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The utility cyclist
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Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby The utility cyclist » 26 Mar 2020, 10:29pm

Testing to see who has had it will show one thing, and one thing only, many people have had and have got it, precisely why the initial data re mortality rate was skewed. If you had tested every person in the country last year or any other year when we've had bad influenza, you'd find an exceptionally large % of people having had flu and still have it.

Remember large % of those with influenza show no symptoms but are carriers, large % show very mild symptoms but are carriers, all carry on as normal unless they work with very high risk patients. Those with worse symptoms might but not all stay off work for a couple of days until they feel a bit better but are carriers, some of those might even bother to report to a medical professional, they are carriers. If ANY of these people have children they will likely have passed that on to them and anyone else they'll have come into contact with, child shows no symptoms goes to school, passes it on to other kids, teachers TAs, bus drivers etc.

This is why despite the low mortality rate (which in itself by definition of the above is skewed) influenza kills so many in this country and around the globe every single year, influenza is everywhere, this is impossible to eradicate just like C.19, not by self isolation/social distancing and 'lock down'. And by the time a vaccine comes out it will have been and gone, not that a vaccine would eradicate Corona Viruses as a whole in any case as we've seen in the last 60 years and as explained in the video I linked to earlier. the 7-15% that Corona Viruses will be of all respiratory diseases are from the unit in Glasgow that are currently working on this variant right now, they can't be lying can they?

This year might show lower than normal influenza deaths, in fact I would be surprised if it didn't given the extreme extra care being enforced, but this cannot be maintained, it's impossible to maintain, so what happens next year or the year after when influenza and other respiratory diseases and other CVs kill in the tens of thousands and government bother to test everyone for flu (the most virulent and widespread) and see millions of cases every week, not just per year, lock down and social isolate again and again and again indefinitely?

Because if the lives of those dying from C.19 matter than what about those whom have died from influenza not just this year but all the years before, over a quarter of a million influenza deaths in the last 10 years, where was the lockdown to prevent that? What about all the other RD in the past and each and every day going forward, do we not then do same for that, if not, why not?