Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

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Postboxer
Posts: 1747
Joined: 24 Jul 2013, 5:19pm

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Postboxer » 13 Mar 2020, 8:25am

My kids are off school today, it's closed for a deep clean as one parent has covid-19, at the moment we haven't been told about Monday.

The BBC has said it's output might fall, I suspect they're going to have to dig out all the BBC schools programming and Open University stuff and put that on. If schools close, will there be a generation of kids who have the same grades as those older but don't know as much ? Assuming they'll have to adjust the exams and grade boundaries to reflect the lost time.

David9694
Posts: 699
Joined: 10 Feb 2018, 8:42am

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby David9694 » 13 Mar 2020, 8:33am

brooksby wrote:
djnotts wrote:Seems clear to me. I catch it, I die. Don't catch it, the boredom of 12 weeks alone at home sounds appalling. Good luck all.


Don't forget the fun of being unable to pay your bills and mortgage and no job to go back to at the end.

For me, at the moment, the possible social and economic upheaval seems more scary than the virus :(


This. I’m out of work at the moment, and it’s looking less likely that I’m going to get hired for what I normally do any time soon. Hopefully I’ll be able to make myself useful somewhere.

So far, the feeling around where I live is reasonably positive - it’s important to take this opportunity for right-thinking people to pull together - if only to choke-off the Mad Max tendency that may come from a tiny minority.

I find I vascillate with different bits of the news - progress of the virus, shortages, precautions (or not) being taken, effect on people’s lives - gripped - sports events cancelled and the Dow Jones going off - don't care, don’t care. Glastonbury 2020 gets cancelled - really don’t care.

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Syd
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Joined: 23 Sep 2018, 2:27pm

Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Syd » 13 Mar 2020, 8:34am

David9694 wrote:
Syd wrote:My workday has been dominated by Covid 19 from getting on the bus to work until two hours after I arrived home again.

I wont go into detail but needless to say acute hospitals are working hard with the goal to double the capacity in their intensive care units for ventilated patients.

I’ve worked in the NHS for nearly 30 years and in that time seen SARS, MERS, Bird Flu and Swine Flu come and go. The preparation work being done for Covid 19 eclipses all that has gone before.


I’m out of the loop at the moment so that’s interesting and reassuring to hear. IIRC, ICUs can support a range of the body’s normal function - will the Coronavirus give us a cohort of patients who are in other respects stable, but just need respiratory support?

The equipment lists we have been asked to put together also include a quantity of heamofiltration units, similar to dialysis but more suitable for an ICU environment.

This is due to the fact that more elderly patients and / or those with other underlying medical issues are most likely to end up in ICU to other aspects of their care will need to be covered to.

Tangled Metal
Posts: 7666
Joined: 13 Feb 2015, 8:32pm

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Tangled Metal » 13 Mar 2020, 8:38am

Postboxer wrote:My kids are off school today, it's closed for a deep clean as one parent has covid-19, at the moment we haven't been told about Monday.

The BBC has said it's output might fall, I suspect they're going to have to dig out all the BBC schools programming and Open University stuff and put that on. If schools close, will there be a generation of kids who have the same grades as those older but don't know as much ? Assuming they'll have to adjust the exams and grade boundaries to reflect the lost time.

Nope! Just get the old top gear tapes back from Dave! :lol:
Last edited by Tangled Metal on 13 Mar 2020, 8:39am, edited 1 time in total.

mattheus
Posts: 1576
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby mattheus » 13 Mar 2020, 8:39am

David9694 wrote:Finally, I missed Nigel Farage’s pitch on the BBC - did he have anything useful to say?



Would you like to guess??

David9694
Posts: 699
Joined: 10 Feb 2018, 8:42am

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby David9694 » 13 Mar 2020, 8:49am

Postboxer wrote:My kids are off school today, it's closed for a deep clean as one parent has covid-19, at the moment we haven't been told about Monday.

The BBC has said it's output might fall, I suspect they're going to have to dig out all the BBC schools programming and Open University stuff and put that on. If schools close, will there be a generation of kids who have the same grades as those older but don't know as much ? Assuming they'll have to adjust the exams and grade boundaries to reflect the lost time.


I think the “lost generation” bit might be over-stating it: we might be about to lose the equivalent of a school term here - peak exam, I realise. Perhaps some e-learning will mitigate this loss to some extent.

brooksby
Posts: 495
Joined: 21 Aug 2014, 9:02am
Location: Bristol

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby brooksby » 13 Mar 2020, 9:00am

Weird, I thought I'd posted this already, but hey...

I was wondering what about the matter that we're now being told not to phone NHS 111 because it's overwhelmed (already??) and that the Govt will only be testing people in or admitted to hospital.

How are we supposed to know how things are progressing? Or is that the point...?

(I'll get my tinfoil hat now).

pwa
Posts: 13882
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby pwa » 13 Mar 2020, 9:05am

brooksby wrote:Weird, I thought I'd posted this already, but hey...

I was wondering what about the matter that we're now being told not to phone NHS 111 because it's overwhelmed (already??) and that the Govt will only be testing people in or admitted to hospital.

How are we supposed to know how things are progressing? Or is that the point...?

(I'll get my tinfoil hat now).


I suppose we will get daily updates on measurable things like hospital admissions and deaths. When those start to go down we will know we are getting through it.

Oldjohnw
Posts: 5991
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Oldjohnw » 13 Mar 2020, 9:05am

brooksby wrote:Weird, I thought I'd posted this already, but hey...

I was wondering what about the matter that we're now being told not to phone NHS 111 because it's overwhelmed (already??) and that the Govt will only be testing people in or admitted to hospital.

How are we supposed to know how things are progressing? Or is that the point...?

(I'll get my tinfoil hat now).


I've just asked that of a medic on Twitter. How can we know how it's spreading, or what the mortality rate is, of we don't have numbers?

If/when I get a reply I'll come back.

I worry that we are going down the US route: if we don't count them they're not there.
John

Oldjohnw
Posts: 5991
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby Oldjohnw » 13 Mar 2020, 9:06am

pwa wrote:
brooksby wrote:Weird, I thought I'd posted this already, but hey...

I was wondering what about the matter that we're now being told not to phone NHS 111 because it's overwhelmed (already??) and that the Govt will only be testing people in or admitted to hospital.

How are we supposed to know how things are progressing? Or is that the point...?

(I'll get my tinfoil hat now).


I suppose we will get daily updates on measurable things like hospital admissions and deaths. When those start to go down we will know we are getting through it.


But it's important, surely, to know the rate of spread in the population.
John

brooksby
Posts: 495
Joined: 21 Aug 2014, 9:02am
Location: Bristol

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby brooksby » 13 Mar 2020, 9:08am

Oldjohnw wrote:
brooksby wrote:Weird, I thought I'd posted this already, but hey...

I was wondering what about the matter that we're now being told not to phone NHS 111 because it's overwhelmed (already??) and that the Govt will only be testing people in or admitted to hospital.

How are we supposed to know how things are progressing? Or is that the point...?

(I'll get my tinfoil hat now).


I've just asked that of a medic on Twitter. How can we know how it's spreading, or what the mortality rate is, of we don't have numbers?

If/when I get a reply I'll come back.

I worry that we are going down the US route: if we don't count them they're not there.


Isn't the American attitude also "If we keep them offshore and don't let them dock, they don't count as American cases"...?

David9694
Posts: 699
Joined: 10 Feb 2018, 8:42am

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby David9694 » 13 Mar 2020, 9:10am

mattheus wrote:
David9694 wrote:Finally, I missed Nigel Farage’s pitch on the BBC - did he have anything useful to say?



Would you like to guess??


Ok, I’ve had a read of a couple of newspaper articles, BBC slammed..., etc. I don’t like him either, but it strikes me as a legitimate editorial choice - like it or not, he represents a shade of opinion on this - again, not one I much care for.

pwa
Posts: 13882
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby pwa » 13 Mar 2020, 9:11am

Oldjohnw wrote:
pwa wrote:
brooksby wrote:Weird, I thought I'd posted this already, but hey...

I was wondering what about the matter that we're now being told not to phone NHS 111 because it's overwhelmed (already??) and that the Govt will only be testing people in or admitted to hospital.

How are we supposed to know how things are progressing? Or is that the point...?

(I'll get my tinfoil hat now).


I suppose we will get daily updates on measurable things like hospital admissions and deaths. When those start to go down we will know we are getting through it.


But it's important, surely, to know the rate of spread in the population.

We don't know that now. It has been suggested that there may already be something like 10 000 cases in the UK, mostly unreported. So if we just get reliable figures for hospital admissions and deaths, we can extrapolate from that to get ball park figures for people infected. We certainly don't want hard pressed health workers tied up testing slightly unwell people who can look after themselves, just to provide figures.

pete75
Posts: 13696
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby pete75 » 13 Mar 2020, 9:25am

Syd wrote:
David9694 wrote:
Syd wrote:My workday has been dominated by Covid 19 from getting on the bus to work until two hours after I arrived home again.

I wont go into detail but needless to say acute hospitals are working hard with the goal to double the capacity in their intensive care units for ventilated patients.

I’ve worked in the NHS for nearly 30 years and in that time seen SARS, MERS, Bird Flu and Swine Flu come and go. The preparation work being done for Covid 19 eclipses all that has gone before.


I’m out of the loop at the moment so that’s interesting and reassuring to hear. IIRC, ICUs can support a range of the body’s normal function - will the Coronavirus give us a cohort of patients who are in other respects stable, but just need respiratory support?

The equipment lists we have been asked to put together also include a quantity of heamofiltration units, similar to dialysis but more suitable for an ICU environment.

This is due to the fact that more elderly patients and / or those with other underlying medical issues are most likely to end up in ICU to other aspects of their care will need to be covered to.


I didn't think the NHS was particularly bothered about treating elderly people. At one time they were running the Liverpool (no)care pathway where they decided someone elderly was going to die, sedated them and withheld food and liquids - a self fulfilling prophecy. NHS trusts were actually paid incentives totally £12 million if they dispatched the required number of patients using the care pathway.
I'd find it difficult to trust any health organisation that used such methods with the care of an elderly relative.

mattheus
Posts: 1576
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Postby mattheus » 13 Mar 2020, 9:26am

David9694 wrote:
mattheus wrote:
David9694 wrote:Finally, I missed Nigel Farage’s pitch on the BBC - did he have anything useful to say?



Would you like to guess??


Ok, I’ve had a read of a couple of newspaper articles, BBC slammed..., etc. I don’t like him either, but it strikes me as a legitimate editorial choice - like it or not, he represents a shade of opinion on this - again, not one I much care for.

Are you serious? There is more informed opinion just on this thread than in his rant. And that's just the people on this thread who are hugely anti-Johnson-government.


His main angle was criticising the gov's response - we have plenty of elected opposition politicians well-equipped to do that.