Panic buying, hoarding

[pwa]

The winning side, as you put it, includes the ordinary folk of places like Blythe who voted Tory for the first time in their lives and who may or may not do so again, depending on how they perceive the Tories and Labour at the next election. Boris must know that he cannot be seen to be working only for the rich, or he will lose seats like that.

Ordinary folk? Not really, the whole 'red wall' thing got a bit mangled by the media from the original use that the guy who coined it (James Kanagasooriam) had in mind. The seats he identified with this were those that demographically (age, wealth, property ownership etc) are ones that would be expected to be voting tory but weren't. As it is, a few months later, quite a few of them did. Really though that was simply catching up with the rest of their demographic. The vast bulk of conservative voters in 2019 were retired, wealthy, benefit claimants.

Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

[Stevek76]

There is some shift in demographic alignment to parties which now seems to be heavily correlated with age and less with income, a shift that partly seems to have been generated via or appeared in tandem with brexit.

However much is just those areas have changed demographically which was entirely the point of original red wall comment. They may have been impoverished ex mining communities once but they're not really any more, they were bucking the trend by still voting labour.

[mjr]

But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

“Level up? You can’t even fill up!” was quite a good sound bite to reach such voters. Starmer is another lawyer like Blair so I suspect he'll get the hang of that bit. But to win, his party does need to get a better grip on media management, both broadcast and social. Will the broadcast media resist? Can the Russian/bot grip on social media be broken? Or maybe they will tire of Boris? Stay tuned...

[thirdcrank]

Spin only works over things that are outside the day-to-day experience of the general public. This fuel crisis is a case in point.

[jb]

Labour won't get in until they stop pretending that the vast majority of their potential voters are the slightest bit interested in wokey type stuff (as understood by the canteen conversationalists).

[Jdsk]

Spin only works over things that are outside the day-to-day experience of the general public. This fuel crisis is a case in point.

That's a very interesting point. A lot of people are wondering when the real world would trump ideology.

There's some relevant data in these surveys:





https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/su ... question_1
You can also break down the data by age, sex, region and social grade but it's not so interesting.

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

Home delivery order today a complete waste of time. No tray meals, no skimmed milk, no porridge, etc. and much of what is coming is going to have to go back (as I don't like e.g. just carrots as a main meal so carrots go back, etc.!).

Can't blame the supermarket (they have tried and I'm sure they want to sell their stuff) but it means I'm going to have to try and find a way to get to a bricks and mortar supermarket.

Ian

[Jdsk]

Home delivery order today a complete waste of time. No tray meals, no skimmed milk, no porridge, etc. and much of what is coming is going to have to go back (as I don't like e.g. just carrots as a main meal so carrots go back, etc.!).

THERE IS NO SHORTAGE! They're just somewhere else...

; - (

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

Home delivery order today a complete waste of time. No tray meals, no skimmed milk, no porridge, etc. and much of what is coming is going to have to go back (as I don't like e.g. just carrots as a main meal so carrots go back, etc.!).

THERE IS NO SHORTAGE! They're just somewhere else...

; - (

Jonathan

In some warehouse somewhere?

Ian

[Jdsk]

Sorry, it was just one of those Nadine moments to which we are all prone.

: - )

Jonathan

[pete75]

The winning side, as you put it, includes the ordinary folk of places like Blythe who voted Tory for the first time in their lives and who may or may not do so again, depending on how they perceive the Tories and Labour at the next election. Boris must know that he cannot be seen to be working only for the rich, or he will lose seats like that.

Ordinary folk? Not really, the whole 'red wall' thing got a bit mangled by the media from the original use that the guy who coined it (James Kanagasooriam) had in mind. The seats he identified with this were those that demographically (age, wealth, property ownership etc) are ones that would be expected to be voting tory but weren't. As it is, a few months later, quite a few of them did. Really though that was simply catching up with the rest of their demographic. The vast bulk of conservative voters in 2019 were retired, wealthy, benefit claimants.

Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

Starmer dull? I think not. Working class lad, qualifies as a barrister, takes silk and ends up as a knight of the realm and Director of Public Prosecutions. You need to be pretty bright to do all that, especially from his background.

[thirdcrank]

I took it that pwa meant "dull" in the sense of lacking charisma. That's possible even if somebody is academically bright as a button

[Psamathe]

Ordinary folk? Not really, the whole 'red wall' thing got a bit mangled by the media from the original use that the guy who coined it (James Kanagasooriam) had in mind. The seats he identified with this were those that demographically (age, wealth, property ownership etc) are ones that would be expected to be voting tory but weren't. As it is, a few months later, quite a few of them did. Really though that was simply catching up with the rest of their demographic. The vast bulk of conservative voters in 2019 were retired, wealthy, benefit claimants.

Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

Starmer dull? I think not. Working class lad, qualifies as a barrister, takes silk and ends up as a knight of the realm and Director of Public Prosecutions. You need to be pretty bright to do all that, especially from his background.

My Mum (who has voted Conservative all her life, reads the Telegraph every day, etc.) has now decided she could vote for Starmer as he "seems a sensible chap". And she's so disappointed with Johnson, if there were and election tomorrow Starmer would be getting her vote.

I wonder how crucial massive support internally within the party is - all parties need a lot of votes from non-party members to get elected.

Ian

[Jdsk]

I wonder how crucial massive support internally within the party is - all parties need a lot of votes from non-party members to get elected.

And in our system turnout is as important as swing voting.

Jonathan

[[XAP]Bob]

I wonder how crucial massive support internally within the party is - all parties need a lot of votes from non-party members to get elected.

And in our system turnout is as important as swing voting.

Jonathan

More so I'd wager, given that the number of non voters is generally far larger than the margin, and usually greater than the winning count.