Panic buying, hoarding

[Psamathe]

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position. Add in that EU operations are (apparently) significantly more efficient (due to UK Brexit effects) puts the UK in an even worse position.

Ian

[Jdsk]

Do figures show a disproportionate number of accidents amongst novice trailer towers and van rentals?
I can imagine the figures would shoot up if there was suddenly a large cash incentive to drive bigger vehicles on a normal licence, but at the moment that may not be the case.

I'd rather that change had gone the other way around. Driving is already lethal enough as it is, we need more stringent management of it, not more leniency.

As with the relaxed rules on permitted hours for commercial drivers this should be subject to evaluation. That should be transparent and preferably independent. And could be done as controlled trials so that the findings would be more reliable.

Jonathan

[PH]

Much of what I could find seemed to be based on the Transport Intelligence report, and it would be very helpful if PH could confirm whether that is the source of "estimated 400,000 driver shortage in the EU".
Jonathan

Let's just step back a bit.
Your first quest for a source on this subject wasn't to me, but Mick F

Lack of lorry drivers?
It's Europe-wide...

Is there any evidence that it's equally serious everywhere in Europe, please?

No mention of numbers.
The story and figures are widely reported,
I haven't made any attempt to verify the source, I have no intention of doing so, or feel any obligation, this is a forum, not an academic study or court of law! I'm assuming those reporting the story have done so, they didn't come off the side of a bus. I've seen them in The Grocer, Financial Times and some Logistics trade organisation's website. All of which were on the first page of a Google search.
Have you any source that refutes the original statement that the shortage of lorry drivers is Europe-wide... ? You might note that the idea of it being equally serious was introduced by you, no one claimed that. I don't know the answer to that, these figures are estimates, I've been careful to make that clear.

[PH]

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position. Add in that EU operations are (apparently) significantly more efficient (due to UK Brexit effects) puts the UK in an even worse position.

Ian

have you a source for that?
Only kidding, if I was interested enough I'd look for myself.

[Hellhound]

Queueing at both local petrol stations this morning Neither are BP!
As soon as you here 'no need to panic buy' on the news/radio that's exactly what folk do

[Stevek76]

Do figures show a disproportionate number of accidents amongst novice trailer towers and van rentals?
I can imagine the figures would shoot up if there was suddenly a large cash incentive to drive bigger vehicles on a normal licence, but at the moment that may not be the case.

I'd rather that change had gone the other way around. Driving is already lethal enough as it is, we need more stringent management of it, not more leniency.

As with the relaxed rules on permitted hours for commercial drivers this should be subject to evaluation. That should be transparent and preferably independent. And could be done as controlled trials so that the findings would be more reliable.

Jonathan

There are an average of ~5 fatalities and ~22 serious injuries every day on British roads, the vast majority of those are due to user error by one or more drivers of a motor vehicle. There is no justification to even consider or trial a relaxation of rules.

[Jdsk]

There's an estimated 400,000 driver shortage in the EU.

I entered this phrase:

"400,000 drivers eu shortage" into Google and pressed enter.

The first result was this:

https://www.clecat.org/en/news/newslett ... ght-market
clecat is an industry body, by the looks of things. The article credits two apparently authoritative sources.

The second result was this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 0-000.html

Most of the other results were similar, generally giving the Transport Intelligence report.

Thanks, again.

I don't think that PH is going to provide the source of the figure that he or she quoted.

Here's the Transport Intelligence report:
https://www.ti-insight.com/wp-content/u ... ges-LB.pdf

And here's the key table with the numbers:

The "400,000" doesn't refer to the EU, it refers to Europe. So if we total the countries that aren't EU Member States that's 79,500 to 203,500. And if we take those from 400,000 that's 320,500 to 196,500. But of course there will be numbers from other countries that aren't EU Member States so the real total will be even lower than that.

And the purpose of this quotation was to show that the UK wasn't in any way different.... but the 400,000 included the UK figures!

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position.

And using the correct estimate for the shortage in the EU makes that comparison even more so. (The population ratio is about 445M to 67M.)

Jonathan

[reohn2]

I'd rather that change had gone the other way around. Driving is already lethal enough as it is, we need more stringent management of it, not more leniency.

My thoughts exactly!
Especially now there are more vehicles on road than ever,vehicles are more powerful and caravans bigger than ever.
Many's the time I've seen motorists towing caravans and large trailers exceeding 60mph motorway speed limits well in excess,sometimes 10+mph in excess and using the third lane when,like HGV's,they're confined to lanes one and two of three lanse m/ways or one,two and three lanes of four lane m/ways

[reohn2]

I must admit I only saw an article on the news with a car and caravan parked next to an HGV with a 40ft trailer which IIUI was a proposal by government that the same licence could be used to drive both units.

I think that might have been a comparison of size rather than weight. I believe the Maximum authorised mass (MAM) you can drive on any car license remains at 8250kg, which you'll know from your experience doesn't allow much capacity for cargo.
There has been a lot of nonsense talked about the new LGV tests, someone was telling me yesterday you'll no longer have to demonstrate the ability to reverse. It isn't true, that testing which takes place off road will be done by a third party, rather than qualifies examiners, I've no problem with that. When I took my Class III the examiner stood in the yard and watched, it's a pass or fail, you could probably get software to observe.

Thanks,I stand corrected.

[Jdsk]

The other aspect apart from the numbers right is the causes and the impacts. That same Transport Intelligence report that is the source of the "400,000" includes:

"The UK is in a particularly difficult position as it is not only grappling with Brexit, but it also saw many European workers leave over the course of the pandemic, as fears over lockdowns grew."

"Truck drivers are lost in a sort of Bermuda triangle of Brexit, pandemic and tax reforms/peak seasons, leading to a pressing driver shortage in the UK.
Brexit effectively ended recruitment from the EU, making it legally impossible to recruit foreign HGV drivers. The COVID-19 pandemic created a backlog of tests and saw around 15,000 Eastern European driver returning home. Finally, newly introduced tax reforms exacerbated the exodus of EU drivers from the UK which will only get worse over the coming summer.
From 2010 to 2017 the number of EU nationals driving HGV in the UK rose from 10,000 to 45,000, and fell to 42,000 in early 2020, possibly related to Brexit. From March to June 2020, the number of EU HGV drivers declined by another 15,000, to 25,000, recovering only slightly to 28,000 by the end of the year. Additionally, the pandemic is also believed to have accelerated the retirement rate in the industry."

It didn't discuss any harm to other Member States from not Leaving.

Many factors, but worse in the UK because of our decision to Leave the EU.

Now, what should we do about it?

Jonathan

[reohn2]

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position. Add in that EU operations are (apparently) significantly more efficient (due to UK Brexit effects) puts the UK in an even worse position.

Ian

Quite!
If the 400,000 shortage across 26 countries is correct it's nowhere near as much of a handicap as 100,000 in one(self)isolated. country.

[Jdsk]

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position. Add in that EU operations are (apparently) significantly more efficient (due to UK Brexit effects) puts the UK in an even worse position.

Quite!
400,000 shortage across 26 countries is nowhere near as much of a handicap as 100,000 in one country.

Even if 400,000 was the correct number for the EU... and it isn't.

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position. Add in that EU operations are (apparently) significantly more efficient (due to UK Brexit effects) puts the UK in an even worse position.

Ian

have you a source for that?
Only kidding, if I was interested enough I'd look for myself.

The discussion on source was earlier in the thread. I was trying to highlight that whilst the 400,000 EU figure was used to argue that the EU is in a bad position as well as UK, it actually shows the EU is not in such a bad position.

Ian

[reohn2]

400,000 driver shortage across the EU (I've not checked) vs 100,000 shortage in UK puts the UK in a far far far worse position. Add in that EU operations are (apparently) significantly more efficient (due to UK Brexit effects) puts the UK in an even worse position.

Quite!
400,000 shortage across 26 countries is nowhere near as much of a handicap as 100,000 in one country.

Even if 400,000 was the correct number for the EU... and it isn't.

Jonathan

I've just edited my post after reading yours above.The less the number of short fall in Europe the worse the UK figure becomes,showing the serious predicament the UK haulage situation we currently find ourselfves in.
Add to that HGV drivers knowing the shortage and it's a beano for drivers pay rises!

[mattheus]

...

Here's the Transport Intelligence report:
https://www.ti-insight.com/wp-content/u ... ges-LB.pdf

And here's the key table with the numbers:
Screenshot 2021-09-24 at 11.38.14.png

Perhaps we should ask Poland what they've done ... and not do that!