Panic buying, hoarding

[Stevek76]

Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

Out of interest, I've just had a look at Neath results. In the six General Elections this centaury, the biggest labour vote was for the Corbyn led Party of 2017, though 2001 wasn't far behind. The worst Labour votes were either side of it, in 2015 when UKIP took 6,000 votes and in 2019 when UKIP stood aside and the Tory vote increased by the same amount. You say something has shifted, it ought to be obvious from the numbers what that something was.
Labour has a huge problem with Brexit, it has since the referendum was called and it hasn't resolved it. The left want out for the opposite reasons the Tories do, the majority of the party (Lets call them the pragmatics) are divided, they want in, but know half of their core voters, like those 6,000 in Neath, want out. I don't know how this gets resolved, Corbyn didn't either and Starmer seems to be just hoping it'll go away.

Just looking at the example of Neath. According to the ONS 2020 population estimates it is broadly around 25% 65+ which puts it in the 9th decile of retiredness for england & wales. I'd be very surprised if almost all of them didn't own their own homes as well, so it really shouldn't be surprising that the torys can do well here, it's exactly the example of a red wall seat that is bucking its demographics.

As said, the idea that labour has lost its 'core voters' in these areas is driven by decade old perceptions of these areas, not actual data. Time moves on, and so do people.

[pwa]

Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

Out of interest, I've just had a look at Neath results. In the six General Elections this centaury, the biggest labour vote was for the Corbyn led Party of 2017, though 2001 wasn't far behind. The worst Labour votes were either side of it, in 2015 when UKIP took 6,000 votes and in 2019 when UKIP stood aside and the Tory vote increased by the same amount. You say something has shifted, it ought to be obvious from the numbers what that something was.
Labour has a huge problem with Brexit, it has since the referendum was called and it hasn't resolved it. The left want out for the opposite reasons the Tories do, the majority of the party (Lets call them the pragmatics) are divided, they want in, but know half of their core voters, like those 6,000 in Neath, want out. I don't know how this gets resolved, Corbyn didn't either and Starmer seems to be just hoping it'll go away. (My emphasis.)

The Alf Garnett effect is nothing new, as Jonny Speight showed long ago

Starmer is trying to smooth over the division by appearing to accept us being out of the EU as a done deal that we must live with, whether we like it or not. He isn't helped in that by supposed Labour supporters who seem to want to constantly point the finger at left-leaning Leave supporters, implying or openly stating that they are either all racists, or at least all in cahoots with racists. That is not a way to show respect for non-racist Leave supporters who want a UK government focussed on traditional Labour values. That is a way of ensuring that such people continue to feel unwelcome within the Labour supporting movement. We should remember that a dislike of being part of the EU has deep roots in the Labour Party, with iconic lefties like Tony Benn prominent. And Alf Garnett, as I remember him, did not like Tony Benn. You can and no doubt will continue labelling all Leave supporters as racists, or bedfellows of racists, but don't expect those Leave supporters to turn out to vote for a party perceived to be contemptuous of them. If Starmer is to stand a chance he has to put distance between his own views and yours.

[thirdcrank]

I'd be very surprised if almost all of them didn't own their own homes as well,

Hardly scientific imo

[Stevek76]

And being heckled by the hard left in his own party may actually help him.

It likely will in the more balanced marginals particularly those in the midlands. The price is the risk of losing recent gains like canterbury driven by idealistic youths. The corbynites were decent footsoldiers for the gtvo operation as well so it's a tricky balance for labour to play out.

[Stevek76]

I'd be very surprised if almost all of them didn't own their own homes as well,

Hardly scientific imo

No, but I couldn't be bothered finding recent localised estimates for home ownership % for a forum thread (if such things exist at all) and census 2021 data will be a little while yet.

I'd hardly say it was a radical leap of faith though given the nature of house prices and wider scale statistics on the matter.

[pwa]

And being heckled by the hard left in his own party may actually help him.

It likely will in the more balanced marginals particularly those in the midlands. The price is the risk of losing recent gains like canterbury driven by idealistic youths. The corbynites were decent footsoldiers for the gtvo operation as well so it's a tricky balance for labour to play out.

You know more about Canterbury than I do, but I wonder if people who want a more radical left package than Starmer is offering will actually sit on their hands if they see a chance to at least get Boris out of Number 10.

[thirdcrank]

I'd be very surprised if almost all of them didn't own their own homes as well,

Hardly scientific imo

No, but I couldn't be bothered finding recent localised estimates for home ownership % for a forum thread (if such things exist at all) and census 2021 data will be a little while yet.

I'd hardly say it was a radical leap of faith though given the nature of house prices and wider scale statistics on the matter.

If you can't be bothered - fair enough - but without further info, suggesting old people = house owners seems to me like a weak foundation on which to base what is presented as reasoned argument. I've zero factual knowledge about Neath, but I'd be surprised if there are parliamentary constituencies with entirely homogenous types of household eg rented vs owner-occupied.

[Jdsk]

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/co ... nstituency

Jonathan

[pwa]

Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.

Out of interest, I've just had a look at Neath results. In the six General Elections this centaury, the biggest labour vote was for the Corbyn led Party of 2017, though 2001 wasn't far behind. The worst Labour votes were either side of it, in 2015 when UKIP took 6,000 votes and in 2019 when UKIP stood aside and the Tory vote increased by the same amount. You say something has shifted, it ought to be obvious from the numbers what that something was.
Labour has a huge problem with Brexit, it has since the referendum was called and it hasn't resolved it. The left want out for the opposite reasons the Tories do, the majority of the party (Lets call them the pragmatics) are divided, they want in, but know half of their core voters, like those 6,000 in Neath, want out. I don't know how this gets resolved, Corbyn didn't either and Starmer seems to be just hoping it'll go away.

I think you are broadly right. I know Neath and Port Talbot well ( though I don't live there) and it is predominantly "working class" or "lower middle class", and the problem there for Labour is that the Tories have seen their support grow steadily since 2016 as they have become the rallying point for getting out of the EU. Labour, locally, has tried to woo Leave supporters, but has been undermined by UK Labour being seen as Remain supporting. I don't know how Labour can square that circle. But they cannot do it if one side is constantly insulting the other.

[pwa]

Screenshot 2021-10-01 at 11.13.49.png
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/co ... nstituency

Jonathan

Thanks. Bear in mind that a lot of housing in the area is very cheap to buy. £80k gets you a decent, habitable terraced house that doesn't need a lot doing to it. So having a mortgage can be more affordable than paying rent.

[Jdsk]

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/asse ... tsheet.pdf

Jonathan

[pwa]

Screenshot 2021-10-01 at 11.20.06.png
https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/asse ... tsheet.pdf

Jonathan

Yep, the values have jumped in our area too.

Neath area is very mixed, so any "average" is going to be a bit misleading. There are a lot of terraced streets with houses below £100k. There are 1960s /70s /80s estates with semis, bungalows and detached houses, mostly higher up on the hillsides. And there are the top end houses. The area is very nice in parts and folk who do well financially don't always want to leave.

[Stevek76]

If you can't be bothered - fair enough - but without further info, suggesting old people = house owners seems to me like a weak foundation on which to base what is presented as reasoned argument.

I thought that was common knowledge at the national scale

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... reovertime

I couldn't find local estimates for recent years in the same way that they produce population by age on the ONS, they may not exist until census data release next year though a massive change from 2011 would be unusual.

[mjr]

He isn't helped in that by supposed Labour supporters who seem to want to constantly point the finger at left-leaning Leave supporters, implying or openly stating that they are either all racists, or at least all in cahoots with racists.

I've not seen much claim that the "Lexit" supporters were racists. Just that their desired goal of a UK freed of a need to harmonise anything with the EU which then intervened heavily in markets was completely unrealistic because

1. there would still be the WTO treaties and others blocking their plan which no-one was seriously campaigning to leave;

2. there was always likely to be an EUUK trade treaty which would include measures to limit state intervention because Populist, Conservative and/or Liberal support would be needed on the EU side to get it through: support of only Socialists and maybe Greens would not be enough;

3. the Tories were scheduled to be in power for 4 more years after the referendum, so they would be negotiating the EUUK treaty and would not hesitate to tie their successors hands on this. The Lexiters are likely to find that leaving the EUUK treaty will be even less popular than Brexit.

And this unrealistic fantasy required them to act "in cahoots with racists". I'll grant you that one, but that's simply fact, isn't it? Not all Leave supporters were racists but polls suggested 96%+ of racists supported Leave IIRC.

Anyway, the heavily pro-Leave West Norfolk is still suffering fuel shortages and panic buying. There is fuel around but there are also closed pumps and purchase limits. Yesterday one fuel station (Shell I think) refused to let a bus buy more than £35 of diesel, forcing its route to be cut short. People here seem to be blaming Boris bungling rather than their own Brexit vote, though. How is it with the rest of you now?

[pwa]

............Anyway, the heavily pro-Leave West Norfolk is still suffering fuel shortages and panic buying. There is fuel around but there are also closed pumps and purchase limits. Yesterday one fuel station (Shell I think) refused to let a bus buy more than £35 of diesel, forcing its route to be cut short. People here seem to be blaming Boris bungling rather than their own Brexit vote, though. How is it with the rest of you now?

As I said earlier, and as I have been saying for years, suddenly stopping migrant labour is the wrong way to go about it. It has to be a progressive move towards a labour market less reliant on migrant labour, with a gradual tapering off of large scale reliance on foreign workers. Boris has been trying to do it overnight and it can't be done that way. I'd suggest it could be done over five or even ten years. Perhaps he will come to that view himself at some point, hopefully soon.

The fuel situation in South Wales seems to be improving, but not yet back to normal. Queues are now mostly short, and some petrol stations have limits while others don't. If I went out with a car to refill the tank I could do that without too much hassle. But I won't need to do that for another week at least.