Just looking at the example of Neath. According to the ONS 2020 population estimates it is broadly around 25% 65+ which puts it in the 9th decile of retiredness for england & wales. I'd be very surprised if almost all of them didn't own their own homes as well, so it really shouldn't be surprising that the torys can do well here, it's exactly the example of a red wall seat that is bucking its demographics.PH wrote: ↑30 Sep 2021, 10:53pmOut of interest, I've just had a look at Neath results. In the six General Elections this centaury, the biggest labour vote was for the Corbyn led Party of 2017, though 2001 wasn't far behind. The worst Labour votes were either side of it, in 2015 when UKIP took 6,000 votes and in 2019 when UKIP stood aside and the Tory vote increased by the same amount. You say something has shifted, it ought to be obvious from the numbers what that something was.pwa wrote: ↑30 Sep 2021, 4:17am Well there must be loads of them around here because Labour came very close to losing seats they used to win by a landslide, decade after decade. If Labour look vulnerable in former coal mining areas such as Neath, something has shifted. They will have to play their cards very carefully next time round if they intend regaining lost ground. But this panic buying will help them to get floating voters seeing the Tories as incompetent. Starmer is as dull as dishwater, but dull begins to look appealing when the alternative lacks a steady hand on the tiller. If Labour had not done so badly last time round, I'd say the next election could be theirs to lose if the Government does not up its game.
Labour has a huge problem with Brexit, it has since the referendum was called and it hasn't resolved it. The left want out for the opposite reasons the Tories do, the majority of the party (Lets call them the pragmatics) are divided, they want in, but know half of their core voters, like those 6,000 in Neath, want out. I don't know how this gets resolved, Corbyn didn't either and Starmer seems to be just hoping it'll go away.
As said, the idea that labour has lost its 'core voters' in these areas is driven by decade old perceptions of these areas, not actual data. Time moves on, and so do people.