C19 - Ending The Lockdown

[mjr]

Brace yourself for another onslaught by the anti-masker/anti-vaxxer nutters after Sky News decided to emphasise some careless words by the leader of a study of cloth masks (if you're coughing, you shouldn't be out even with a mask), rather than how well they protect in asymptomatic cases. Example https://www.originalfm.com/news/headlin ... downsides/

[pwa]

Well, from tomorrow I have a week off work (yes, I have been going to work) and my holiday is cancelled of course. But being here in Wales means that we can't even drive somewhere for a few hours of different scenery, such as a bit of hill walking in a few very quiet locations I know. That still isn't allowed here. Exercise must begin and end at home, no car involved, and rides should be local enough to guarantee we can walk home if a mechanical mishap occurs. I wouldn't mind all this if I thought that others were sticking to the same rules, but while I was out and about for work yesterday I saw numerous examples of families who had driven to relatively remote locations. And I could not see any practical problem with what they were doing. They were not crowding with other families. Oh well, I will stick to the rules and not drive to my exercise venue, because at heart I believe in a collective approach to these things.

[pwa]

Brace yourself for another onslaught by the anti-masker/anti-vaxxer nutters after Sky News decided to emphasise some careless words by the leader of a study of cloth masks (if you're coughing, you shouldn't be out even with a mask), rather than how well they protect in asymptomatic cases. Example https://www.originalfm.com/news/headlin ... downsides/

The problem with masks is that it is difficult or impossible to get everyone to use them appropriately, without risking a lot of people placing too much confidence in them and forgetting the distancing and self-isolation.

[mjr]

Brace yourself for another onslaught by the anti-masker/anti-vaxxer nutters after Sky News decided to emphasise some careless words by the leader of a study of cloth masks (if you're coughing, you shouldn't be out even with a mask), rather than how well they protect in asymptomatic cases. Example https://www.originalfm.com/news/headlin ... downsides/

The problem with masks is that it is difficult or impossible to get everyone to use them appropriately, without risking a lot of people placing too much confidence in them and forgetting the distancing and self-isolation.

Appropriately means what?

Plenty of people seem to be forgetting distancing and quarantine anyway. Lockdown seems essentially over in England since Boris's latest outburst. Police can now only enforce against large gatherings and banned shops AFAICT.

[Cugel]

Hi there, I find it fascinating that so many supposedly adult people make countless childish point? If common sense is the answer we have serious problems at beating this virus, as "Common" sense is a very "Un-Common" commodity! MM

If you examine the CS closely you'll discover that it's not only uncommon but not sensible! It is in fact a euphemism for "the daft olde wifey's tale that everyone knows is right despite all the evidence indicating that it isn't". After all, we humans don't need no stinkin' evidence when the loon in the pub or The Daily Frightener (same thing really) can tell us all we need to "know".

Cugel

[pwa]

Brace yourself for another onslaught by the anti-masker/anti-vaxxer nutters after Sky News decided to emphasise some careless words by the leader of a study of cloth masks (if you're coughing, you shouldn't be out even with a mask), rather than how well they protect in asymptomatic cases. Example https://www.originalfm.com/news/headlin ... downsides/

The problem with masks is that it is difficult or impossible to get everyone to use them appropriately, without risking a lot of people placing too much confidence in them and forgetting the distancing and self-isolation.

Appropriately means what?

Plenty of people seem to be forgetting distancing and quarantine anyway. Lockdown seems essentially over in England since Boris's latest outburst. Police can now only enforce against large gatherings and banned shops AFAICT.

Appropriately, to the best of my limited knowledge, means using a mask to prevent the wearer transmitting to another, rather than to protect the wearer. "You wear a mask to protect me and I wear a mask to protect you" is how I have heard it put. The ability of basic masks to protect the wearer is very limited, and if a wearer uses one instead of distancing or self-isolation, it is not likely to be a good substitute. Using a basic mask while trying to adhere to other good practices may leave you better protected, but is that how people will use them?

And personally, I think lockdown is starting to crumble in Wales too. I hope people who do disregard the lockdown still attempt distancing and do all the hand washing.

[Cugel]

Well, from tomorrow I have a week off work (yes, I have been going to work) and my holiday is cancelled of course. But being here in Wales means that we can't even drive somewhere for a few hours of different scenery, such as a bit of hill walking in a few very quiet locations I know. That still isn't allowed here. Exercise must begin and end at home, no car involved, and rides should be local enough to guarantee we can walk home if a mechanical mishap occurs. I wouldn't mind all this if I thought that others were sticking to the same rules, but while I was out and about for work yesterday I saw numerous examples of families who had driven to relatively remote locations. And I could not see any practical problem with what they were doing. They were not crowding with other families. Oh well, I will stick to the rules and not drive to my exercise venue, because at heart I believe in a collective approach to these things.

This stupid policy is yet another causing far more other harms than it's preventing Covid harm. There are numerous acquaintances here in this part of West Wales who are "following the rules," as you are, and suffering because they are lonely and even more isolated than is the norm out here in a sparsely populated area. Social app contacts are not enough, especially for older folk used to a different lifestyle of regular contact with friends and outer family. The number of Covid cases in the whole of Ceredigion is still tiny (39 in total since the panic began) but other deaths and a downward plunge in many kinds of well-being are likely to have increased markedly, with little in the way of normal health services now available, even for those with serious conditions such as cancer.

Every day I see people walking in narrow roads with only high banks, no pavement, no verge and traffic that's going far too fast around the many blind bends. They are "following the rules" despite "walking only from home" being a recipe for a wing mirror or worse to the body. They would be far safer driving a few miles to the forests or other empty places - empty of traffic but also people, as even with the few exercising folk in such areas during normal times, one sees another person about once in a month, usually at some great distance.

Then there are the economic harms. The ladywife went to give blood in Newcastle Emlyn yesterday, where many shops are not just shut but permanently closed as the business has been killed off. The blood folk also told her that this move of blood-letting to a smaller number of more remote locations (from most who give blood) is to be the new norm. No more 3 miles to Lampeter - 25 to Newcastle Emlyn (and back again) instead. Even greater distances for many. This will reduce the number of donors, already at crisis point as Covid procedures are halving the numbers the blood-letters can handle in any session.

******

Whilst it's obviously needful to keep the rate of infections down in crowded places with pressing & numerous social contact the norm, this isn't appropriate in vast swathes of low-population Wales; and similar areas elsewhere, one suspects. Why is there no intelligent attempt to reduce the vast harms being done by lockdown in those areas where far greater mobility would not increase Covid dangers or occurrence one iota?

Cugel

[gbnz]

[quote="Cugel" Whilst it's obviously needful to keep the rate of infections down in crowded places with pressing & numerous social contact the norm, this isn't appropriate in vast swathes of low-population Wales; and similar areas elsewhere, one suspects. Why is there no intelligent attempt to reduce the vast harms being done by lockdown in those areas where far greater mobility would not increase Covid dangers or occurrence one iota? [/quote]

Making an intelligent attempt to end the lockdown, is largely down to oneself. It'd be a bit absurd to wait for HM Gvt to tell one, one can do something

Have to say it's a good few weeks since I recognized that I was endangering neither myself nor anyone else in going for a walk for 7-8 Hr's in which I'd see no-one. Or going for a run or cycle ride. Likewise sunbathing (NB. On a quiet bit of the moor). Or popping into town today, a 3.5 hour round journey on an empty bus. Obviously shopping for food is a high risk activity when one does it daily, but I haven't noticed myself catching a virus yet

[roubaixtuesday]

The number of Covid cases in the whole of Ceredigion is still tiny (39 in total since the panic began)

Whilst doubtless true, the absolute number is almost irrelevant. Absent measures to contain it thr virus multiplies at a doubling time of just 3 days or so.

That converts your 39 to 39000 within a month.

I do agree with the pointless nature of restrictions in your context. I would hope they can be quietly ignored where appropriate, in the same way that speed limits are loudly ignored, quite inappropriately.

[Cugel]

The number of Covid cases in the whole of Ceredigion is still tiny (39 in total since the panic began)

Whilst doubtless true, the absolute number is almost irrelevant. Absent measures to contain it thr virus multiplies at a doubling time of just 3 days or so.

That converts your 39 to 39000 within a month.

I do agree with the pointless nature of restrictions in your context. I would hope they can be quietly ignored where appropriate, in the same way that speed limits are loudly ignored, quite inappropriately.

There is far less need for "measures to contain the virus" in many areas of Britain as the number and frequency of social contact is already very low compared to that in a city or large conurbation. It's a gross over-reaction to restrict movement (with all it's drastic consequences for general health, business and much else) in places like Ceredigion and many other similar areas. 39 cases out of a population of 73,000, with none of them (as far as I can determine) resulting in a death! Yet the county is now suffering all sorts of social and economic harms added to an already precarious socio-economic condition for many living here.

People here are acting appropriately in keeping their distance from others wherever possible. But translating social distancing to mean small shops and businesses of many kinds are prevented from operating is damaging and without any justification. Those few shops where people are put into a possibility of close contact (supermarkets) are still operating. Most shops in Ceredigion and elsewhere in rural West Wales rarely see more than one or two customers in there at a time.

The policies and guidance that have been created - often in an off-the-cuff and not-thought-through fashion - seem entirely predicated on city life. Just another case of those in the centres of power being oblivious to the very different lifestyles outside of those centres of power. And uncaring about what damage they do to far-flung places of no consequence in their crowded machinations within the various ratraces of their own locale.

***********
We already have politicians held in low esteem by many. I can tell you that those out here badly damaged by what seems a draconian disregard for their circumstances are now even less enamoured of politicos and "authority" in general. Another notch towards a situation in which regard for the rule of law is diminishing because of the law being brought into disrepute by careless and cack-handed incompetence by those with an I'm-in-charge badge but no ability to meet the demands of that duty.

Cugel

[roubaixtuesday]

39 cases out of a population of 73,000, with none of them (as far as I can determine) resulting in a death!

Again, without disagreeing with the thrust of your objections to blanket restrictions, the absolute numbers are near irrelevant.

Absent any restrictions, you can expect the virus to go through the whole population. And quickly. Killing many people.

[merseymouth]

Hi, Dominic Cummings has effectively terminated any worthwhile support forthcoming! Lock-down is now dead, why should we bother! MM

[al_yrpal]

How many bus and taxi drivers living in tower blocks and travelling to work on crowded tube trains are there in Ceredigion? Doh!

Al

[Bonefishblues]

Hi, Dominic Cummings has effectively terminated any worthwhile support forthcoming! Lock-down is now dead, why should we bother! MM

Interestingly, R4 reported that public adherence & support was still very strong (and stronger than MPs, it was noted)

At least the public gives a [self-censored before writing a rude word]

[mjr]

Hi, Dominic Cummings has effectively terminated any worthwhile support forthcoming! Lock-down is now dead, why should we bother! MM

Interestingly, R4 reported that public adherence & support was still very strong (and stronger than MPs, it was noted)

At least the public gives a [self-censored before writing a rude word]

How are they measuring that? I estimate it's 90% of a pre-lockdown half-term's motor traffic out there on the A10 today and maybe half of what's missing could be explained by the increase in cycling - a big drop from the early days of lockdown, but still about double what it was before. The other 5% are probably still on furlough or teleworking, but I think few local industries lend themselves to teleworking and probably even fewer have bosses that would allow it any longer than they must, in this deeply conservative (small c) area.

Lockdown seems basically over except for the closures of fun things like pubs/cafes/cinemas, non-essential shops and other large gatherings. Thank you Dominic(!) Now we wait and see what the R value does...