C19 - Ending The Lockdown

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al_yrpal
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby al_yrpal » 18 May 2020, 1:03pm

Its the long term effects of fast food thats the problem, like smoking its effects are cumulative. The lockdown has probably been a healthy period for fast food aficionados. Low population density is obviously a key feature in avoiding the virus and its effects

Al
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Bonefishblues
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Bonefishblues » 18 May 2020, 1:05pm

al_yrpal wrote:Its the long term effects of fast food thats the problem, like smoking its effects are cumulative. The lockdown has probably been a healthy period for fast food aficionados. Low population density is obviously a key feature in avoiding the virus and its effects

Al

Ah, now I understand your angle, thanks.

AlaninWales
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby AlaninWales » 19 May 2020, 11:24am

reohn2 wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:It’s nice to hear the term ‘herd immunity’ it’s a zoological / farming term, applied to how viruses propagate in groups of animals. Humans are a lot more complicated, herd immunity may not actually ever happen in human populations. As long as people realise that the virus is in charge of this situation, not politicians or scientists, it will make life easier. The reproduction number is already creeping back up. When it goes above 1 again ( which won’t take long ) we’ll be back to square one. I think the ( misguided IMHO ) belief that ‘herd immunity’ would have prevented this by now, really wasn’t helpful. However, several biotech / pharma companies are reporting good results from viral suppressant drug trials, so that may be an answer.

Agreed.

"Herd immunity" absolutely applies to human populations, it is how vaccines work to prevent many diseases spreading. Are you two claiming here that the anti-vaxers are right?

Cyril Haearn
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Cyril Haearn » 19 May 2020, 11:25am

Are humans really a lot more complicated or different from animals?
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Marcus Aurelius
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 19 May 2020, 12:21pm

Cyril Haearn wrote:Are humans really a lot more complicated or different from animals?

Yes, significantly so.

reohn2
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby reohn2 » 19 May 2020, 12:22pm

AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:It’s nice to hear the term ‘herd immunity’ it’s a zoological / farming term, applied to how viruses propagate in groups of animals. Humans are a lot more complicated, herd immunity may not actually ever happen in human populations. As long as people realise that the virus is in charge of this situation, not politicians or scientists, it will make life easier. The reproduction number is already creeping back up. When it goes above 1 again ( which won’t take long ) we’ll be back to square one. I think the ( misguided IMHO ) belief that ‘herd immunity’ would have prevented this by now, really wasn’t helpful. However, several biotech / pharma companies are reporting good results from viral suppressant drug trials, so that may be an answer.

Agreed.

"Herd immunity" absolutely applies to human populations, it is how vaccines work to prevent many diseases spreading. Are you two claiming here that the anti-vaxers are right?

Err,no what gave you that idea? :?
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Marcus Aurelius
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 19 May 2020, 12:25pm

AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:It’s nice to hear the term ‘herd immunity’ it’s a zoological / farming term, applied to how viruses propagate in groups of animals. Humans are a lot more complicated, herd immunity may not actually ever happen in human populations. As long as people realise that the virus is in charge of this situation, not politicians or scientists, it will make life easier. The reproduction number is already creeping back up. When it goes above 1 again ( which won’t take long ) we’ll be back to square one. I think the ( misguided IMHO ) belief that ‘herd immunity’ would have prevented this by now, really wasn’t helpful. However, several biotech / pharma companies are reporting good results from viral suppressant drug trials, so that may be an answer.

Agreed.

"Herd immunity" absolutely applies to human populations, it is how vaccines work to prevent many diseases spreading. Are you two claiming here that the anti-vaxers are right?

The anti vaxer lot tend to be a bit ‘loony’ at best. However history dictates that we are really not very good at developing effective vaccines for Corona viruses.

kwackers
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby kwackers » 19 May 2020, 1:08pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:
Cyril Haearn wrote:Are humans really a lot more complicated or different from animals?

Yes, significantly so.

I'm curious.
In what way?

Mammals have pretty much the same sets of organs. A few tweaks here and there - but a cow isn't "significantly" less complex than a human surely?
From a viral perspective cow cells aren't any simpler than human cells afaik.

OTOH birds have more complex respiratory systems than humans (or any mammals that I'm aware of).
Onions have almost five times more DNA than us - so we don't necessarily win on the vegetable level either.

Once you remove brain complexity then I'm not seeing that there's anything that justifies your comment.
(And elephants trounce us in the brain size department)
Last edited by kwackers on 19 May 2020, 1:09pm, edited 1 time in total.

reohn2
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby reohn2 » 19 May 2020, 1:08pm

A man who has alway talked sense to my mind:- https://youtu.be/K56fuGLMvrY
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AlaninWales
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby AlaninWales » 19 May 2020, 2:09pm

reohn2 wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:Agreed.

"Herd immunity" absolutely applies to human populations, it is how vaccines work to prevent many diseases spreading. Are you two claiming here that the anti-vaxers are right?

Err,no what gave you that idea? :?

Because it did look like you were decrying the idea of "herd immunity"? Yet the establishment of a herd immunity is precisely what is being aimed at when we vaccinate as a program to eliminate diseases from the human population and is the basis of why we vaccinate for (for example) MMR.

LollyKat
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby LollyKat » 19 May 2020, 4:01pm

AlaninWales wrote:..the establishment of a herd immunity is precisely what is being aimed at when we vaccinate as a program to eliminate diseases from the human population and is the basis of why we vaccinate for (for example) MMR.


I agree with the principle....but in the absence of an effective vaccine the government appeared to want to achieve it by Darwinian selection . This was the only way in bygone days, of course, but modern societies aren't so keen - can't think why! :shock:

reohn2
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby reohn2 » 19 May 2020, 4:15pm

AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:"Herd immunity" absolutely applies to human populations, it is how vaccines work to prevent many diseases spreading. Are you two claiming here that the anti-vaxers are right?

Err,no what gave you that idea? :?

Because it did look like you were decrying the idea of "herd immunity"? Yet the establishment of a herd immunity is precisely what is being aimed at when we vaccinate as a program to eliminate diseases from the human population and is the basis of why we vaccinate for (for example) MMR.

Perhaps we're at cross purposes,I'm in favour of vaccines and believe it's the only way out of the present crisis.
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AlaninWales
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby AlaninWales » 19 May 2020, 5:38pm

reohn2 wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:Err,no what gave you that idea? :?

Because it did look like you were decrying the idea of "herd immunity"? Yet the establishment of a herd immunity is precisely what is being aimed at when we vaccinate as a program to eliminate diseases from the human population and is the basis of why we vaccinate for (for example) MMR.

Perhaps we're at cross purposes,I'm in favour of vaccines and believe it's the only way out of the present crisis.

Cross purposes then! It does seem odd to me that some people don't accept herd immunity as a concept but want a vaccine; I had to explain to a couple of neighbours that vaccines were meant to achieve just that (as they thought there must be some "other mechanism" by which vaccines "destroyed" a virus!).

Of course a vaccine will only help if we (humans) are able to develop immunity that lasts for a reasonably long period (several moths at least) and either prevents reinfection or lessens both the reaction to infection and the transmission of the virus when we have it. Immunity of the type that we typically see to cold viruses (which last only a few weeks AIUI) will not help us. Without a (reasonably long term) immune reaction, we are left with the only way out of the present crisis being to let natural selection occur. Whilst this is not acceptable (as Lollykat points out) to most people in a civilised society, reality does not care what we find acceptable. This is a frightening but real prospect and one which we should be facing up to: How in that situation do we plan to continue to protect the vulnerable, whilst ending a crisis which is causing real mental and financial difficulties to many who are not equipped for them?

reohn2
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby reohn2 » 19 May 2020, 5:55pm

AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:Because it did look like you were decrying the idea of "herd immunity"? Yet the establishment of a herd immunity is precisely what is being aimed at when we vaccinate as a program to eliminate diseases from the human population and is the basis of why we vaccinate for (for example) MMR.

Perhaps we're at cross purposes,I'm in favour of vaccines and believe it's the only way out of the present crisis.

Cross purposes then! It does seem odd to me that some people don't accept herd immunity as a concept but want a vaccine; I had to explain to a couple of neighbours that vaccines were meant to achieve just that (as they thought there must be some "other mechanism" by which vaccines "destroyed" a virus!).

Of course a vaccine will only help if we (humans) are able to develop immunity that lasts for a reasonably long period (several moths at least) and either prevents reinfection or lessens both the reaction to infection and the transmission of the virus when we have it. Immunity of the type that we typically see to cold viruses (which last only a few weeks AIUI) will not help us. Without a (reasonably long term) immune reaction, we are left with the only way out of the present crisis being to let natural selection occur. Whilst this is not acceptable (as Lollykat points out) to most people in a civilised society, reality does not care what we find acceptable. This is a frightening but real prospect and one which we should be facing up to: How in that situation do we plan to continue to protect the vulnerable, whilst ending a crisis which is causing real mental and financial difficulties to many who are not equipped for them?

I can only agree.
Our problem as humans is that erroneous teachings have led us to believe we are the pinnacle of evolution,the masters of our(owned/possessed)world,we tend generally,not accept that that concept is deeply flawed and that something so seemingly simple(I know it isn't) as a virus has,given the right circumstances,the potential to wipe out a vast majority of us humans in a very short time.
Is it,either consciously or subconsciously,part of our godlike delusional belief system?
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djnotts
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby djnotts » 19 May 2020, 6:18pm

The short answer is that we cannot protect the vulnerable indefinitely. All we can do (but won't) is allow relatively painless and quick death. I have accepted and expected from the start that sooner or later I will become infected and that it will kill me. Slowly and painfully as I will not accept pointless intrusive ventilation.
Time for honesty.