C19 - Ending The Lockdown

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James Up Hill
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Small team from London to Brighton

Postby James Up Hill » 19 May 2020, 6:20pm

Ronrom wrote: Like the Flu the quicker we globally get immune to it, the better.


It's the only solution there seems to be. The time to compare the deaths country-by-country is in about 18 months' time. At the moment you're far more likely to die from a cycling accident than from Covid if you're under 40 and have nothing else wrong with you.

pwa
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby pwa » 19 May 2020, 6:21pm

djnotts wrote:The short answer is that we cannot protect the vulnerable indefinitely. All we can do (but won't) is allow relatively painless and quick death. I have accepted and expected from the start that sooner or later I will become infected and that it will kill me. Slowly and painfully as I will not accept pointless intrusive ventilation.
Time for honesty.

There have been quite a few cases of very old people getting the virus and shaking it off without much of a problem, so don't assume the worst.

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Cugel
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Cugel » 19 May 2020, 6:22pm

reohn2 wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:
reohn2 wrote:Err,no what gave you that idea? :?

Because it did look like you were decrying the idea of "herd immunity"? Yet the establishment of a herd immunity is precisely what is being aimed at when we vaccinate as a program to eliminate diseases from the human population and is the basis of why we vaccinate for (for example) MMR.

Perhaps we're at cross purposes,I'm in favour of vaccines and believe it's the only way out of the present crisis.


No, not the only way. That old-fashioned method mentioned by another poster is not just a possibility but a likelihood if an effective vaccine can't be developed very soon. All the signs are that it can't.

The best we seem to be able to hope for is that Covid is eventually reduced in status to that more like flu - a yearly finisher-off of those already very vulnerable; preventable to a degree via vaccination but by no means something that can be eradicated a la smallpox or polio. As I understand it, Covid is likely to mutate in the fashion of flu and the common cold, so prevention for all is never a possibility.

Of course, we could continue (a more draconian) lockdown for the indefinite future to space-out the deaths and so seemingly reduce the death rate. The costs of lockdown - to the health, wealth and general well-being of the locked down humans - will be immense and possibly far, far greater than accepting an initially high death rate amongst the old & vulnerable.

No one will like this choice. But in fact, it may be "the only way" in hard practice. How long will a society like ours (or any other) go on accepting lockdown, especially if it's to mostly protect Boomers who are due for reaping before long anyway?

And I speak as such a Boomer.

Cugel

djnotts
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby djnotts » 19 May 2020, 6:34pm

pwa wrote:
djnotts wrote:The short answer is that we cannot protect the vulnerable indefinitely. All we can do (but won't) is allow relatively painless and quick death. I have accepted and expected from the start that sooner or later I will become infected and that it will kill me. Slowly and painfully as I will not accept pointless intrusive ventilation.
Time for honesty.

There have been quite a few cases of very old people getting the virus and shaking it off without much of a problem, so don't assume the worst.


But great majority don't. I have copd. And something else beginning with C. My life at an acceptable quality is maybe 2 years irrespective of Covid. So I am going to lose say 18 months. A pity cos I am actually quite fit (Cycling 140 - 160 miles a week) and "active" (New girlfriend for last 18 months following death of my wife) at present. But over 3 score and 10, so that'll do.

pwa
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby pwa » 19 May 2020, 7:49pm

djnotts wrote:
pwa wrote:
djnotts wrote:The short answer is that we cannot protect the vulnerable indefinitely. All we can do (but won't) is allow relatively painless and quick death. I have accepted and expected from the start that sooner or later I will become infected and that it will kill me. Slowly and painfully as I will not accept pointless intrusive ventilation.
Time for honesty.

There have been quite a few cases of very old people getting the virus and shaking it off without much of a problem, so don't assume the worst.


But great majority don't. I have copd. And something else beginning with C. My life at an acceptable quality is maybe 2 years irrespective of Covid. So I am going to lose say 18 months. A pity cos I am actually quite fit (Cycling 140 - 160 miles a week) and "active" (New girlfriend for last 18 months following death of my wife) at present. But over 3 score and 10, so that'll do.

All the best with that. You could still be lucky and not get it badly, but whatever, I hope you manage to get some quality time this summer.

Ben@Forest
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Ben@Forest » 19 May 2020, 7:51pm

It has now been identified that the lack of proper access to GPs and lack of proper examination (i.e. a doctor not peering down a patient's throat) will (or is) lead(ing) to serious conditions not being caught early and a potential increase in deaths that would otherwise been preventable.

To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Vorpal
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Vorpal » 20 May 2020, 9:25am

djnotts wrote:But great majority don't. I have copd. And something else beginning with C. My life at an acceptable quality is maybe 2 years irrespective of Covid. So I am going to lose say 18 months. A pity cos I am actually quite fit (Cycling 140 - 160 miles a week) and "active" (New girlfriend for last 18 months following death of my wife) at present. But over 3 score and 10, so that'll do.

I'm very sorry to hear that. I wish you the best possible outcome.
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

Oldjohnw
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Oldjohnw » 21 May 2020, 7:44am

If you say people can go to he seaside for the day do you

a) congratulate them for doing as they are told, or
b) fine them for doing as they are told and turn them back?

Asking for a friend.
John

DaveReading
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby DaveReading » 21 May 2020, 8:06am

Oldjohnw wrote:If you say people can go to he seaside for the day do you

a) congratulate them for doing as they are told, or
b) fine them for doing as they are told and turn them back?

Asking for a friend.

I'd have a quiet word with whoever told your friend that he/she had to go to the seaside. It's not compulsory.

Oldjohnw
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Oldjohnw » 21 May 2020, 8:15am

DaveReading wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:If you say people can go to he seaside for the day do you

a) congratulate them for doing as they are told, or
b) fine them for doing as they are told and turn them back?

Asking for a friend.

I'd have a quiet word with whoever told your friend that he/she had to go to the seaside. It's not compulsory.


And we all know that whenever a certain Mr Johnson says you can go, an awful lot of people will. And they do.
John

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mjr
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby mjr » 21 May 2020, 8:42am

Oldjohnw wrote:
DaveReading wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:If you say people can go to he seaside for the day do you

a) congratulate them for doing as they are told, or
b) fine them for doing as they are told and turn them back?

Asking for a friend.

I'd have a quiet word with whoever told your friend that he/she had to go to the seaside. It's not compulsory.


And we all know that whenever a certain Mr Johnson says you can go, an awful lot of people will. And they do.

And why not? I hope to see the sea again one day.

What we need is coordination, with all beaches and resorts opening together to avoid crowding, and displays of which places are busy, to encourage people to spread out.

Sadly, while North and East Norfolk resorts remained closed last weekend, West Norfolk decided to cash in by noisily reopening one resort's car parks. :(
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

Oldjohnw
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby Oldjohnw » 21 May 2020, 10:04am

Somewhere I forget where peopl were getting fined and turned back. After being told by our pm that it's ok.

I think the point of my post has been missed,
John

mercalia
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby mercalia » 21 May 2020, 10:27am

Get ready for Lockdown II, the sequel, starring Boris "the liar" Johnson and Trump "the Dettol Injector", coming to your screens, soon. Sign up to Netflix or Amazon Prime. This is a blockbuster you would like to miss?

any one with any sense knew that shielding people achieved little in the long run? The govts purpose to shield the NHS was a sound goal though

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus?
Last edited by mercalia on 21 May 2020, 10:38am, edited 1 time in total.

merseymouth
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby merseymouth » 21 May 2020, 10:38am

Hi there, I find it fascinating that so many supposedly adult people make countless childish point? If common sense is the answer we have serious problems at beating this virus, as "Common" sense is a very "Un-Common" commodity! MM

AlaninWales
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Re: C19 - Ending The Lockdown

Postby AlaninWales » 21 May 2020, 12:30pm

mercalia wrote:Get ready for Lockdown II, the sequel, starring Boris "the liar" Johnson and Trump "the Dettol Injector", coming to your screens, soon. Sign up to Netflix or Amazon Prime. This is a blockbuster you would like to miss?

any one with any sense knew that shielding people achieved little in the long run? The govts purpose to shield the NHS was a sound goal though

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus?

The reasons for the lockdown were discussed by the Winton Centre (University of Cambridge) here https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196. It shows the relative risk for Covid19 for different ages and shows that "the Covid risk follows a similar pattern as the background risk". This is not to say that the people dying of Covid would have died this year anyway:
Winton Centre wrote:This suggests that COVID-19 very roughly contributes a year’s worth of risk. There is a simple reality check on this figure. Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK. The Imperial College team estimates that if the virus went completely unchallenged, around 80% of people would be infected and there would be around 510,000 deaths.

So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

This is important because it accepts that we are not gods. However much of a civilised society we regard ourselves as we cannot make this virus go away.
As the discussion continues:
there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
.
We didn't keep it to 20000, so far around double that by current measures. However there is indeed a vast and increasing cost in the side effects of isolation. People whose underlying condition cannot but be made worse and whose lives will be shortened, with significantly decreased quality of life.
The real difficulty is how to end the fear. If only the effort spent on this virus was spent on avoiding heart disease https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/our-research/heart-statistics for example, many more lives could have been saved. Of course we cannot afford to spend that on every killer disease - because the social effects of the economic impacts would be too great. We had to do this not (as the propaganda said) to save lives, but to ensure that our health service did not collapse.