Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

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thelawnet
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Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby thelawnet » 14 Apr 2020, 10:28am

[youtube][/youtube]
The utility cyclist wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:Read what i said.
Out of 1.25-1.5million NHS employees do you not think that on an given day some of them will die, probability says that NHS employees might die every single day?
You're being told what the media are telling you, people will die WITH a virus, not BECAUSE of the virus, so not actual cause of death.
But to repeat beause you didn't bother to read THE UK's GOVERNMENTS ADVISOR SAID the majority would die no matter what.
People die every day, sometimes unexplained, tens of thousands die due to pneumonia and influenza (40,000 excess winter deaths ring a bell?), some of them who work for the NHS, this happens EVERY YEAR! :roll:


Actually I don't recognise that number. The ONS says on average 17,000 excess deaths. It may be that the number of deaths are limited: I hope so. But that will be because people follow medical guidance.

I'm sure you have a heart some where. I do hope you can locate it.

You can't try to guilt trip me using false data

Have you actually looked at the raw data? 2019 total respiratory deaths in England and Wales only.
Download the 2019 XLS from here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales look for the tab/sheet Weekly figures 2019, look to the right of "All respiratory diseases (ICD-10 J00-J99)
ICD-10 v 2013 (IRIS)"
These are all the weekly respiratory deaths per week, they add up to 71,674 for the year, these are where RD was the underlying cause!

And if you download the 2020 XLS this will show you the true number of C19 deaths that are actually being mentioned/entered on the death certificates - so not always sole reason for death and Prof Ferguson tells us that the vast majority of C.19 deaths are from pre existing conditions, is in fact 647 up until end of 27th March. Massaging death numbers works to make the lie work

As I said before, we are being sold a massive lie, the govs own data tells us that compared to all other respiratory diseases C.19 is a drop in the ocean when you take into account that the vast majority are NOT death from C.19 but daths WITH C.19 and there is pressure to mention it on deaths certificates despite not being underlying cause, frankly that is disgusting using the dead to push the agenda. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

I have a heart, but I have a brain and understanding when we are being duped.


Good luck spinning the latest figures.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 65839.xlsx

These are deaths registered 28 March to 3rd April. Date of death average 5 days earlier, so 23rd March to 30 March approx.
Officially around 2700 covid-19 deaths recorded by NHS

Normal seasonal deaths 10,305. Actual registered deaths: 16,387.

AFAICT that's the highest number of deaths in any week ever. The previous record was 16,237 3-9 January 2015, a number that would have been inflated by late registration of deaths over Christmas/New Year. (Actual numbers would have been ~14,500)

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 14 Apr 2020, 10:53am

thelawnet wrote:
These are deaths registered 28 March to 3rd April. Date of death average 5 days earlier, so 23rd March to 30 March approx.
Officially around 2700 covid-19 deaths recorded by NHS

Normal seasonal deaths 10,305. Actual registered deaths: 16,387.

AFAICT that's the highest number of deaths in any week ever. The previous record was 16,237 3-9 January 2015, a number that would have been inflated by late registration of deaths over Christmas/New Year. (Actual numbers would have been ~14,500)

How many of these “CV-19 deaths” have actually been people with the normal seasonal flu, and were actually hospitalised by it who have then contracted the new one in hospital, so also had the new virus in their system, and it was actually the seasonal flu that led to their demise, but the presence of the new virus has led to them being classified as a CV-19 death? We won’t know, because it wouldn’t fit ‘the narrative’.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby roubaixtuesday » 14 Apr 2020, 11:12am

thelawnet wrote:
Good luck spinning the latest figures.



Looks like the very next poster gave it their best shot :roll:

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 14 Apr 2020, 11:33am

roubaixtuesday wrote:
thelawnet wrote:
Good luck spinning the latest figures.



Looks like the very next poster gave it their best shot :roll:


For good reason. Let’s not forget why the death numbers were highlighted to start with. It was to allow the government to formulate a policy to maintain “headroom” in the NHS. That’s to make sure that the flow into and through the NHS system doesn’t compromise its ability to fit them in. Anyone who dies outside of the main NHS system ( care homes and the like ) DO NOT IMPACT THE MAIN NHS SYSTEM. Although they are still dying, it’s of little / no consequence to the main NHS system, so isn’t being taken into consideration, and shouldn’t be by anyone else either. It’s sad and all that, but of little consequence to the original important reasons for the lockdown. Those extra numbers are noise, as far as the big picture is concerned. Whereas any deaths are never great news, the extra deaths, should not be a consideration in the decision making process, by the policy makers.
Last edited by Marcus Aurelius on 14 Apr 2020, 11:34am, edited 1 time in total.

thelawnet
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby thelawnet » 14 Apr 2020, 11:34am

Marcus Aurelius wrote:
thelawnet wrote:
These are deaths registered 28 March to 3rd April. Date of death average 5 days earlier, so 23rd March to 30 March approx.
Officially around 2700 covid-19 deaths recorded by NHS

Normal seasonal deaths 10,305. Actual registered deaths: 16,387.

AFAICT that's the highest number of deaths in any week ever. The previous record was 16,237 3-9 January 2015, a number that would have been inflated by late registration of deaths over Christmas/New Year. (Actual numbers would have been ~14,500)

How many of these “CV-19 deaths” have actually been people with the normal seasonal flu, and were actually hospitalised by it who have then contracted the new one in hospital, so also had the new virus in their system, and it was actually the seasonal flu that led to their demise, but the presence of the new virus has led to them being classified as a CV-19 death? We won’t know, because it wouldn’t fit ‘the narrative’.


It's not seasonal flu season now, that is January. Essentially weekly deaths typically go up to around 13,000 on January and fall to around 9,000 by summer, with a steady rise and fall between peak and trough

We should be experiencing around 10,000 at the moment, and we've got 16,000.

Our preliminary hypothesis is the 6000 excess were killed by covid-19, and if you wish to say that some deaths would have died otherwise from flu, which is certainly possible, then perhaps it is in fact 7000 covid-19 deaths.

The excess deaths are correctly the important number, and we have a huge number.

The NHS figures for that period close to 3k and studies from other countries suggest half of deaths in care homes, so 6k extra seems about right. Next week should be closer to 10k

Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 14 Apr 2020, 11:37am

thelawnet wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:
thelawnet wrote:
These are deaths registered 28 March to 3rd April. Date of death average 5 days earlier, so 23rd March to 30 March approx.
Officially around 2700 covid-19 deaths recorded by NHS

Normal seasonal deaths 10,305. Actual registered deaths: 16,387.

AFAICT that's the highest number of deaths in any week ever. The previous record was 16,237 3-9 January 2015, a number that would have been inflated by late registration of deaths over Christmas/New Year. (Actual numbers would have been ~14,500)

How many of these “CV-19 deaths” have actually been people with the normal seasonal flu, and were actually hospitalised by it who have then contracted the new one in hospital, so also had the new virus in their system, and it was actually the seasonal flu that led to their demise, but the presence of the new virus has led to them being classified as a CV-19 death? We won’t know, because it wouldn’t fit ‘the narrative’.


It's not seasonal flu season now, that is January. Essentially weekly deaths typically go up to around 13,000 on January and fall to around 9,000 by summer, with a steady rise and fall between peak and trough

We should be experiencing around 10,000 at the moment, and we've got 16,000.

Our preliminary hypothesis is the 6000 excess were killed by covid-19, and if you wish to say that some deaths would have died otherwise from flu, which is certainly possible, then perhaps it is in fact 7000 covid-19 deaths.

The excess deaths are correctly the important number, and we have a huge number.

The NHS figures for that period close to 3k and studies from other countries suggest half of deaths in care homes, so 6k extra seems about right. Next week should be closer to 10k

But only 3450 of the extra deaths have been ‘directly attributed’ to CV-19.

reohn2
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby reohn2 » 14 Apr 2020, 11:44am

MA
Here's a thought,older people(those more likely to die of seasonal flu and C19)unless hospitalised aren't being counted in C19 death figures.

Edited for corrections
Last edited by reohn2 on 14 Apr 2020, 12:24pm, edited 3 times in total.
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thelawnet
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby thelawnet » 14 Apr 2020, 11:52am

Marcus Aurelius wrote:
thelawnet wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:How many of these “CV-19 deaths” have actually been people with the normal seasonal flu, and were actually hospitalised by it who have then contracted the new one in hospital, so also had the new virus in their system, and it was actually the seasonal flu that led to their demise, but the presence of the new virus has led to them being classified as a CV-19 death? We won’t know, because it wouldn’t fit ‘the narrative’.


It's not seasonal flu season now, that is January. Essentially weekly deaths typically go up to around 13,000 on January and fall to around 9,000 by summer, with a steady rise and fall between peak and trough

We should be experiencing around 10,000 at the moment, and we've got 16,000.

Our preliminary hypothesis is the 6000 excess were killed by covid-19, and if you wish to say that some deaths would have died otherwise from flu, which is certainly possible, then perhaps it is in fact 7000 covid-19 deaths.

The excess deaths are correctly the important number, and we have a huge number.

The NHS figures for that period close to 3k and studies from other countries suggest half of deaths in care homes, so 6k extra seems about right. Next week should be closer to 10k

But only 3450 of the extra deaths have been ‘directly attributed’ to CV-19.


No, if you look at the stats you will see that 90% of the deaths attributed to cv-19 occurred in hospital. Studies from other countries show around half of deaths from (or with if you prefer) cv-19 occur in care homes. It follows that a figure of 6000 to 7000 deaths from cv-19 in all settings is likely to be reasonably accurate.

The care home dead are not being tested, so they don't appear in the figures.

It's pretty logical to assume that the 60% over-average death total is caused by covid-19, in the absence of other explanations

wirral_cyclist
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby wirral_cyclist » 14 Apr 2020, 3:15pm

The Jeremy Vine show today (Tuesday 14th) had a bloke from the ONS and he gave the CV19 excess death figures as being 60% in excess of the 5 year average (and 'usual' winter excess deaths having ended by now), he also said they collate deaths as CV19 when it is mentioned on the death certificate, the ONS is running the numbers for the weeks mentioned to filter out the CV19 figures to be died with or died from CV19, those figures are due out Thursday.
He also said tomorrow's (and wednesday) figures will likely blip upwards, a lot, due to the bank holiday delaying reporting, he also went on to say that deaths outside hospital (care homes/hospice/home) are about 10% of the hospital death figures issued.

There is no doubt that people are dying at well more than the 'natural wastage' that some are promoting as acceptable.

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The utility cyclist
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby The utility cyclist » 14 Apr 2020, 3:42pm

reohn2 wrote:MA
Here's a thought,older people(those more likely to die of seasonal flu and C19)unless hospitalised aren't being counted in C19 death figures.

Edited for corrections

There are massively more tests for C.19, so people dying FROM other conditions, more tests per deceased than for any other viral infection that we have seen here and any other country (on the back of the flawed data from the outset), far greater than influenza, this will produce more positive results than you would get for people dying that have any of the flu variants, this is basic meta 101.
From that you have death certs WITH C.19 that are being falsely counted in the vast majority as deaths FROM, there is no comparative to testing and attributation to flu or other transmittable respiratory diseases, this is what produces confirmation bias and is repeated time and time and time again and inflates the mortality rate for which the world and their dog have over reacted to.
testing and recording in the same way for flu variants as is currently being done for C.19 would show far more deaths WITH than the tens of thousands already recorded every year.
Frankly it's disgusting that the government are using people's deaths as a reason to justify lockdown and that the so called experts are not lsitening to meta analysis experts who have been banging the drum to not keep falling into the same bias that started the whoe thing off.
Governments don't now want to test by the million or random testing amongst the population because this would expose the mortality rate to be between what Corona Viruses have been doing for at least the last 15 years and experts in meta research have been saying since the early part of this year, that it will be between 0.03 and 0.2% MAX, that upper limit for an unhealthy nation like the US!

C.19 is being OVER RECORDED on a massive scale and in an inflammatory way in every sense, it's an utter disgrace given the harm it has done to everyone particularly the vulnerable/elderly. :twisted:

Oldjohnw
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby Oldjohnw » 14 Apr 2020, 3:52pm

So now we know. 6000 excess deaths compared to the average this time of year as announced by ONS.

And if we weren't locked down how many thousands more would there be.

What I think is disgusting is those who try to say this is no big deal. But quite clearly, all the evidence in the world will not shake their almost religious belief.

Of course, I realise that the world's leading epidemiologists and virologists are dangerous conmen compared to a couple or three expert contributors to these pages. Just like messrs Trump and Bolsonaro.
Last edited by Oldjohnw on 14 Apr 2020, 3:57pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The utility cyclist
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby The utility cyclist » 14 Apr 2020, 3:53pm

wirral_cyclist wrote:The Jeremy Vine show today (Tuesday 14th) had a bloke from the ONS and he gave the CV19 excess death figures as being 60% in excess of the 5 year average (and 'usual' winter excess deaths having ended by now), he also said they collate deaths as CV19 when it is mentioned on the death certificate, the ONS is running the numbers for the weeks mentioned to filter out the CV19 figures to be died with or died from CV19, those figures are due out Thursday.
He also said tomorrow's (and wednesday) figures will likely blip upwards, a lot, due to the bank holiday delaying reporting, he also went on to say that deaths outside hospital (care homes/hospice/home) are about 10% of the hospital death figures issued.

There is no doubt that people are dying at well more than the 'natural wastage' that some are promoting as acceptable.


Averages are meaningless, supposedly last year we had fewer than 2000 influenza deaths, this is utter garbage/lie, 2019 which was a 'good' year showed over 70,000 respiratory deaths that were the underlying reason for death, not WITH/listed on death cert which is what the majority of C.19 deaths are recorded as but are actually falsely being represented as the primary underlying cause.

We need to compare to worst years for respiratory diseases and how we have reacted then, why those numbers were seemingly acceptable and not go into complete meltdown. We've had several people quoting average 17,000 flu deaths earlier in the C.19 thread I showed the govs own figures for 2014/15, it showed just for the over 65s we had more than 25,000 flu deaths, were flu was the underlying reason for death, not WITH, it would have been massively more WITH influenza if the same testing rigour was done as it is currently for C.19.

There is no direct conmparison with the numbers and we are being led astray by ridiculous testing protocols and attributation wholly to C.19 as cause of death when this is simply not true.

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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby The utility cyclist » 14 Apr 2020, 4:13pm

Why are the government not showing the C.19 deaths that are the underlying cause of death, they are deliberately misleading us!

There are 2300 more deaths in the YTD compared to the 5 yearly average, 166,444 compared to 164,173, a 1.4% increase, taking into account population increases since 2015 there is no statistical increase in deaths thus far, in fact there is a DECREASE in deaths as a % of the population of England and Wales! :roll:

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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby Oldjohnw » 14 Apr 2020, 4:37pm

The utility cyclist wrote:Why are the government not showing the C.19 deaths that are the underlying cause of death, they are deliberately misleading us!

There are 2300 more deaths in the YTD compared to the 5 yearly average, 166,444 compared to 164,173, a 1.4% increase, taking into account population increases since 2015 there is no statistical increase in deaths thus far, in fact there is a DECREASE in deaths as a % of the population of England and Wales! :roll:


So why don't you write to the DG of ONS, the CMO and the Chief Scientist, as well as the WHO, John Hopkins Institute and Imperial College, Oxford Unit and put them right, rather than waste your time on your rather stupid intellectual inferiors here?
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Re: Cycling as an activity during the Covid 19 outbreak

Postby The utility cyclist » 14 Apr 2020, 5:41pm

Oldjohnw wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:Why are the government not showing the C.19 deaths that are the underlying cause of death, they are deliberately misleading us!

There are 2300 more deaths in the YTD compared to the 5 yearly average, 166,444 compared to 164,173, a 1.4% increase, taking into account population increases since 2015 there is no statistical increase in deaths thus far, in fact there is a DECREASE in deaths as a % of the population of England and Wales! :roll:


So why don't you write to the DG of ONS, the CMO and the Chief Scientist, as well as the WHO, John Hopkins Institute and Imperial College, Oxford Unit and put them right, rather than waste your time on your rather stupid intellectual inferiors here?

Dr John Ioannidis the co director of meta research at Stanford Uni has already stated that Imperial college are massively wrong, he actual compliments them generally but it is clear he has said in the video I linked previously that their modelling is incorrect and starts from a flawed mortality figure.
Using 1% or 3.4% to give upper maximums was utterly, utterly bonkers and mickey poor in the extreme, but then what did you expect with Prof neil Ferguson advising the government, he has form for being a load of pants in predictions of infections and the like.
And pointless writing because they will not admit their mistakes in terms of adjusting for huge increases in testing of the very sick, even though Prof Fergy has even told everyone these people would die of their underlying conditions but will be registered as a C.19 death when that is false because it's a death WITH not FROM, no other virus has been recorded in this way, not even previous corona viruses nor when we've had flu pandemics, the numbers are being massively and disgustingly manipulated to justify the mistaken lockdown and the panic that it has caused and all the other negatives such as lost jobs/businesses at the very least never mind th worry and greater isolation fo the vulnerable.
the cannot backtrack and admit mistake now because it would cost them their careers, it would cost Boris his, people would bay for blood and businesses and individuals would take private cases against the government for falsely locking down and killing their businesses off/losing their jobs and for the harm caused in general.

look at how the media and the general population reacted when Boris said no lock down, he and his minions reacted to that and made decisions on what would keep their jobs!
this was explicitly mentioned by Dr Wolfgang Wodarg when he was talking about C.19 from the outset and how the story of the emperors new clothes is so relevant.