Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby [XAP]Bob » 27 Jun 2020, 4:16pm

Only by a factor of 3.5 and climbing
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Oldjohnw » 27 Jun 2020, 4:25pm

Pubs aren't open yet. Just wait.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 27 Jun 2020, 5:15pm

We are screwed this time. When the death rate goes ballistic again ( we’re not far off the ‘ignition point’ now) we will get locked down again, only this time, there will be no Furlough ( we can’t afford it ) and it will really hurt. The idiots that chose to ‘protest’ and flock to the beaches, and celebrate a football team winning, are going to be solely responsible for it.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 27 Jun 2020, 5:41pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:We are screwed this time. When the death rate goes ballistic again ( we’re not far off the ‘ignition point’ now) we will get locked down again, only this time, there will be no Furlough ( we can’t afford it ) and it will really hurt. The idiots that chose to ‘protest’ and flock to the beaches, and celebrate a football team winning, are going to be solely responsible for it.

Err,don't forget the government who's mixed messages and lack of leadership throughout this debacle who didn't protect the country initially and latterly give them permission to relax the social distancing program.

There's a storm coming better get ready.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Vorpal » 28 Jun 2020, 1:16am

Even if you do not believe that COVID-19 deaths have been recorded correctly, it can to some extent be seen in the data for all deaths by year

onsdata.jpg

here it is graphically
onsdatagraph.jpg


The statisticians at the Economist have also taken a look at excess deaths, meaning that they use statistics to analyse how many people normally die of heart disease and old age, and determing how many deaths are caused by seasonal and contagious illnesses like flu. They refer to these as 'excess'.

excess1 (1).jpg


I'm not convinced that it matters so much whether every single death is accurately recorded. My experience with statistics of that nature is while one instance or more may be incorrect, there are others, incorrect in the opposite direction to make up for it. Furthermore, problems with the data can often be discerned through statistics. Even if it does maatter, and they are completely incorrect, we can still see the effect of COVID-19 through the total numbers of deaths.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 28 Jun 2020, 8:23pm

Leicester is going back into ‘Local lockdown’ next week, because of a massive spike in infections. Here we go, fasten your seatbelts.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 29 Jun 2020, 12:30pm

Vorpal wrote:Even if you do not believe that COVID-19 deaths have been recorded correctly, it can to some extent be seen in the data for all deaths by year

onsdata.jpg
here it is graphically
onsdatagraph.jpg

The statisticians at the Economist have also taken a look at excess deaths, meaning that they use statistics to analyse how many people normally die of heart disease and old age, and determing how many deaths are caused by seasonal and contagious illnesses like flu. They refer to these as 'excess'.

excess1 (1).jpg

I'm not convinced that it matters so much whether every single death is accurately recorded. My experience with statistics of that nature is while one instance or more may be incorrect, there are others, incorrect in the opposite direction to make up for it. Furthermore, problems with the data can often be discerned through statistics. Even if it does maatter, and they are completely incorrect, we can still see the effect of COVID-19 through the total numbers of deaths.

Yes, excess deaths, and those deaths as I've said are not FROM Covid19, the stats I put up previously directly from the register of deaths, this register is indisputable is it not and is an accurate record, this despite the pressure/force toward doctors to put C.19 down instead of/as well as
pneumonia and the change in how to record a death by government.

If you drastically remove health care in hospitals, in care homes, within the community, make the vulnerable even more vulnerable by isolating them even more, making people fearful to go to hospital when they are already unwell with serious health conditions, and do this in an already over stretched system, this is what happens! Even Prof Neil Ferguson admitted that this would be the case that the majority of deaths would be people with their underlying conditions as cause of death.

You and the rest clearly don't want to acknowledge the facts that C.19 has not killed anywhere near as many as flu/pneumonia in any given year and forum members including yourself continue to put fake news up regards deaths FROM a virus which the register of deaths proves every single week to be fake.
I'll remind you again of the deaths from respiratory diseases by underlying cause up to and including week 23.
2020 - 36166

2019 - 36706 ~ 52 weeks 71674

2018 - 43883 ~ 52 weeks 76232

2017 - 38560 ~ 52 weeks 73413

2016 - 37133 ~ 52 weeks 72053

2015 - 42945 ~ 53 weeks 77276

Explain how the deaths can be lower for this year within the respiratory disease section of the register (for England and Wales) yet C.19 be a major threat to public health over and above any given year, and apparently is still a major threat such that we are operating under extreme control/conditions?
Explain how the threat is so massive that the daily deaths from respiratory disease that includes C.19 is actually fewer than the average for any given year?

If the excess deaths are not FROM any respiratory disease including C.19 as underlying cause, then what are they FROM as underlying cause?
How do you explain the government's fake news regarding deaths and the register which clearly are different, hugely different in fact!

How do you think you get a bigger R number/second wave? By testing massively more people, by testing the same individuals multiple times in the same day and presenting the number of + tests as individual cases instead of just a single person, and all using a flawed test as admitted by the World Health Organisation and many, many others!

Here's a screen shot of my spreadsheet comparison to 12th June of weekly deaths in England and Wales from ALL respiratory diseases (incl C.19) as underlying cause, again all data taken directly from the register at ONS, no fake news/inaccurate graphs showing deaths that are not from C.19 at all, just raw data.

Second week of January 2015 and there were nearly FOUR times as many respiratory deaths than the week ending 12th June 2020, the reaction/lockdown for now is not changing respiratory deaths it's killing people early with health conditions due to the lockdown/reaction itself and will continue to kill more people in the future due to the long lasting effects of the lockdown including destroying the economy that effects healthcare massively at the very least!
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respiratory deaths to 12 June 2015 to 2020.JPG
Last edited by The utility cyclist on 29 Jun 2020, 12:45pm, edited 1 time in total.

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The utility cyclist
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 29 Jun 2020, 12:31pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:Leicester is going back into ‘Local lockdown’ next week, because of a massive spike in infections. Here we go, fasten your seatbelts.

Keep doing more tests with a flawed test and you get more 'infections', this is confirmation bias in extremis, and yet still fewer people are dying every week, locking down kills more people, the virus does not.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Vorpal » 29 Jun 2020, 12:53pm

The utility cyclist wrote:Yes, excess deaths, and those deaths as I've said are not FROM Covid19, the stats I put up previously directly from the register of deaths, this register is indisputable is it not and is an accurate record, this despite the pressure/force toward doctors to put C.19 down instead of/as well as
pneumonia and the change in how to record a death by government.

If you drastically remove health care in hospitals, in care homes, within the community, make the vulnerable even more vulnerable by isolating them even more, making people fearful to go to hospital when they are already unwell with serious health conditions, and do this in an already over stretched system, this is what happens! Even Prof Neil Ferguson admitted that this would be the case that the majority of deaths would be people with their underlying conditions as cause of death.

You and the rest clearly don't want to acknowledge the facts that C.19 has not killed anywhere near as many as flu/pneumonia in any given year and forum members including yourself continue to put fake news up regards deaths FROM a virus which the register of deaths proves every single week to be fake.
I'll remind you again of the deaths from respiratory diseases by underlying cause up to and including week 23.

Do I understand correctly that you are saying people are not dying from COVID-19? Or only that the numbers are inflated? What then does it take to count someone as dying of COVID-19? If someone is admitted to hospital with COVID-19, grows progressively worse, and subsequently dies, what should their death be recorded as?

Do you really think that 60,000 people have died of heart conditions, pneumonia, kidney failure, etc. and it is just being recorded as COVID-19? If so, what are the motivations? Why would the government cause such a huge economic disruption for a basket of lies? Why would Spain, Italy, and China take such exterme measures to shut people in their homes to prevent this thing spreading? Why are the measures taken by New Zealand, Iceland, and Vietnam apparently succssful?

I can accept that some deaths are inaccurately recorded. It happens all the time, and extreme circumstances are likely to lead to larger discrepancies. I don't, for example think it is reasonable to compare infection rates, and things like that between countries. Death rates can only be compared with quite detailed analyses of how deaths are recorded, and which count as COVID-19 deaths. So, the charts on Our World in Data sites are interesting, but not especially useful in understanding how the UK has dealt with COVID-19 compared to Iceland, for example.
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Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 29 Jun 2020, 1:12pm

The utility cyclist wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:Leicester is going back into ‘Local lockdown’ next week, because of a massive spike in infections. Here we go, fasten your seatbelts.

Keep doing more tests with a flawed test and you get more 'infections', this is confirmation bias in extremis, and yet still fewer people are dying every week, locking down kills more people, the virus does not.

I agree with you, I can’t see this ending well.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby mjr » 29 Jun 2020, 1:39pm

The utility cyclist wrote:I'll remind you again of the deaths from respiratory diseases by underlying cause up to and including week 23.
2020 - 36166

2019 - 36706 ~ 52 weeks 71674

But what would the 2020 figure have been without lockdown? That seems like rather a big factor ignored.

How do you think you get a bigger R number/second wave? By testing massively more people, by testing the same individuals multiple times in the same day and presenting the number of + tests as individual cases instead of just a single person,

That presentation wasn't done by any official reports, was it? The number of tests and number of cases were presented separately, until the recent failure in reporting (which may have been just due to FT and BBC criticism of the repeat-testing approach).
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby NATURAL ANKLING » 30 Jun 2020, 10:58am

Hi,
reohn2 wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:We are screwed this time. When the death rate goes ballistic again ( we’re not far off the ‘ignition point’ now) we will get locked down again, only this time, there will be no Furlough ( we can’t afford it ) and it will really hurt. The idiots that chose to ‘protest’ and flock to the beaches, and celebrate a football team winning, are going to be solely responsible for it.

Err,don't forget the government who's mixed messages and lack of leadership throughout this debacle who didn't protect the country initially and latterly give them permission to relax the social distancing program.

There's a storm coming better get ready.


And the new possible pandemic is on us already in the form of pig flu G4!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... esearchers
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 30 Jun 2020, 12:14pm

NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,
reohn2 wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:We are screwed this time. When the death rate goes ballistic again ( we’re not far off the ‘ignition point’ now) we will get locked down again, only this time, there will be no Furlough ( we can’t afford it ) and it will really hurt. The idiots that chose to ‘protest’ and flock to the beaches, and celebrate a football team winning, are going to be solely responsible for it.

Err,don't forget the government who's mixed messages and lack of leadership throughout this debacle who didn't protect the country initially and latterly give them permission to relax the social distancing program.

There's a storm coming better get ready.


And the new possible pandemic is on us already in the form of pig flu G4!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... esearchers

And given the virulence of the swine flus tend to be way higher than the SARS-CoV-2, we really could be in a whole lot of trouble.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 30 Jun 2020, 12:16pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:
NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,
reohn2 wrote:Err,don't forget the government who's mixed messages and lack of leadership throughout this debacle who didn't protect the country initially and latterly give them permission to relax the social distancing program.

There's a storm coming better get ready.


And the new possible pandemic is on us already in the form of pig flu G4!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... esearchers

And given the virulence of the swine flus tend to be way higher than the SARS-CoV-2, we really could be in a whole lot of trouble.

Certainly if the government is a lax as it has been with C19.
One hopes we've learned some lessons.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Postboxer » 1 Jul 2020, 2:38am

The utility cyclist wrote:
Here's a screen shot of my spreadsheet comparison to 12th June of weekly deaths in England and Wales from ALL respiratory diseases (incl C.19) as underlying cause, again all data taken directly from the register at ONS, no fake news/inaccurate graphs showing deaths that are not from C.19 at all, just raw data.




Have you got a link to the raw data please? I've been trying to find it on the ONS website but can't find any lists of causes of death. All I find is the weekly report which doesn't appear to have causes of death included.