Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

[Oldjohnw]

The government is, at last, showing all death figures from today. So a significant jump to over 26,000 deaths. We used to feel sorry for Italy.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dail ... -19-deaths

[the snail]

... Graham the moderator has not told me what false information I have published regarding covid 19....

Just about everything you've posted in this thread has been nonsense. HTH

[DaveReading]

We used to feel sorry for Italy.

Feeling desperately sorry for Italy would still seem to be a legitimate reaction.

[Oldjohnw]

We used to feel sorry for Italy.

Feeling desperately sorry for Italy would still seem to be a legitimate reaction.

Indeed. But I was meaning we did it as if we would never be that bad. We are only just behind in numbers.

[Oldjohnw]

So I've now been threatened to be banned from the site if I post any more C.19 links without actually been told what misinformation I have posted nor indeed seen any such threats to others posting misinformation regarding anything else including misinformation by the government and their advisors.

The last link was to John Ioannidis the co-director of meta research at Stanford university and his views from the testing they've done and the one before that was regards to laws that I took on face value with regards to actions that governments could do under such laws, I did not produce any misleading information regarding Covid 19, the laws in that video link talked about public health as a wkhole, I did not mention Covid 19 and Graham the moderator has not told me what false information I have published regarding covid 19.

I hope the moderators uphold this threat to others who publish misinformation

You've been in denial about this whole obscene virus from the start, stating time and again how the WHO, the CMO, the Chief Scientist and pretty well every scientist in the world was involved in some massive scam. There will be many things that the benefit of developing research will change, and lessons will, hopefully, be learned; but to keep repeating that all advice is a scam is pretty despicable. It is quite hard to be terribly sympathetic with your dilemma.

[wirral_cyclist]

So I've now been threatened to be banned from the site

About time

[wirral_cyclist]

We used to feel sorry for Italy.

Feeling desperately sorry for Italy would still seem to be a legitimate reaction.

Indeed. But I was meaning we did it as if we would never be that bad. We are only just behind in numbers.

Only counting the number of dead, per capita we aren't as bad - yet.

[Oldjohnw]

Feeling desperately sorry for Italy would still seem to be a legitimate reaction.

Indeed. But I was meaning we did it as if we would never be that bad. We are only just behind in numbers.

Only counting the number of dead, per capita we aren't as bad - yet.

Yet.

[Postboxer]

To be honest it could take years until we can do anything like a true comparison between nations, even then there are probably too many variables to compare one government's response with another.

[The utility cyclist]

Latest release by ONS to 17th April https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales shows 1,776 total deaths from all respiratory diseases in England and Wales as underlying cause of death, this is a reduction in respiratory deaths from the week two winter high of 2,477 and less than half the excess Winter death toll in 2017/18 which averaged 3,854 over every week for a 13 week 'winter' period totalling 50,100 EWD.
The highest EWDs recorded was in 75/76 with 58,100 or an average of 4,469 weekly deaths.

The comparison in actual deaths by underlying cause is stark and very revealing and backs up what I said about a death WITH and a death FROM, previously only a death as underlying cause is mentioned with regards to respiratory disease deaths on the register of deaths, a death WITH or mentioned on a death certificate is not recorded.
See screen shot from 2018 register with the respiratory deaths as underlying cause, no deaths counted because a death certificate mentioned a respiratory disease, same as 2019 and the same up until C.19 was a thing.

Also there is no mention how many of the 1,776 deaths are solely attributed to pneumonia, influenza, Covid19 or any of the other respiratory ailments which is in line with previous years, how many of the 1,776 are solely FROM Covid19?

Of the deaths mentioned on the weekly register, ONS state that where influenza, pneumonia or C.19 are included they are all included in the C.19 section only, see the screen grab from the ONS page. The number of deaths with a mention of C.19, influenza or pneumonia will of course with greater testing show a massively high number due to huge testing for such in the deceased.

This slants the figures because as mentioned by many doctors, scientists and experts, testing for influenza in people dying with significant underlying conditions would not be done in anywhere near the number as with the COV2 test, so of course this massively increases positive tests in deceased persons, that's before you even get to the fact that as per ONS statement all pneumonia and influenza deaths are being counted in the C.19 section only.

[francovendee]

I agree, to get a full picture it may take years before knowing, by population numbers, which country comes out worse.
If the UK had lower numbers of deaths it wouldn't stop the government comparing the UK to others even without all the info.

[carpetcleaner]

Interesting article in the Guardian on Sunday.

An interview with 'Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten'.

Asked for his opinion on how the UK has handled the crisis he said

' Public Health England was in a position to diagnose the disease very early on – we worked with them to make the diagnostic test – but rollout in Germany was driven in part by market forces, which made it fast, and that wasn’t the case in the UK.'

We have the monolithic, nationalised NHS.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -interview

[AlaninWales]

Interesting article in the Guardian on Sunday.

An interview with 'Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten'.

Asked for his opinion on how the UK has handled the crisis he said

' Public Health England was in a position to diagnose the disease very early on – we worked with them to make the diagnostic test – but rollout in Germany was driven in part by market forces, which made it fast, and that wasn’t the case in the UK.'

We have the monolithic, nationalised NHS.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -interview

Conveniently leaving out the rest of the quote that immediately follows the above:
"Now, though, I have the impression that the UK is really gaining momentum in this regard, and that it is coordinating testing efforts better than Germany."
A positive benefit of "the monolithic, nationalised NHS." . Of course the effort in the UK includes many private and non-NHS research bodies. Coordination is the key requirement.

I suspect that you have not understood the rest either. For example:
"The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives " - which means that even where tests are being done on a wider scale we are seeing only a small proportion of potentially* immune members of the population.

"Even in Germany, with our huge testing capacity, and most of it directed to people reporting symptoms, we have not had a positivity rate above 8%." - so with people who show symptoms, most test negative (at the time Germany are testing them). There is a real problem with false negatives in testing. Hence declaring people fit to work on the basis of a negative test is fraught with risk. Testing without telling the individuals the result will give population level facts as the error rates can be included in the calculations. But market-driven testing of individuals is not a good direction as our tests are still too uncertain.


*Potentially: We do not know yet whether immunity to this virus will last any significantly useful period or whether (like the common cold) immunity will last only weeks (or less). How this plays out in the long term (no country can lock down indefinitely, harvests need to be gathered, food needs to be distributed, ditto clothes and other manufactured goods. People need to earn a living) depends wholly on whether immunity to this virus can be acquired.

[PH]

Interesting article in the Guardian on Sunday.

An interview with 'Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten'.

Asked for his opinion on how the UK has handled the crisis he said

' Public Health England was in a position to diagnose the disease very early on – we worked with them to make the diagnostic test – but rollout in Germany was driven in part by market forces, which made it fast, and that wasn’t the case in the UK.'

We have the monolithic, nationalised NHS.

What complete and utter tosh, the testing failures have been political not medical, your friends have total responsibility, as any inquiry will demonstrate, doesn't matter how soon you get the excuses in they won't stand up.

[mjr]

The government is, at last, showing all death figures from today. So a significant jump to over 26,000 deaths. We used to feel sorry for Italy.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dail ... -19-deaths

Unless Italy has started including non-hospital deaths in its headline counts since some time in April, we should still feel sorry for Italy. If or when they make a similar correction to their counts, Italy will probably leap ahead again.