Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

[Oldjohnw]

A sobering observation from Ireland:

Why is coronavirus killing so many more people in the UK than in Ireland?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard

[reohn2]

A sobering observation from Ireland:

Why is coronavirus killing so many more people in the UK than in Ireland?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard

It's what you get with stupid government,the UK was weeks behind on action against this pandemic,if you check my posts I was saying the same thing 4 weeks ago.
And worst of all not only are we being lied to on a daily basis about the death toll by only counting those who've died in hospital and not in care homes or the community but the stupid government in power still isn't doing the right thing by not testing and tracing,though it could be argued we're way to late for that now.

[Cyril Haearn]

Lots of us have posted uninformed opinions about this, but after we shall know a lot about epidemiology, the study of epidemics, +1. Spreading knowledge (very good) as well as disease (very bad)

The statistics from different countries are surely not comparable, not standardised, there is plenty the experts do not understand

I read in the Guardian about a football match between an Italian and a Spanish team a few weeks ago, it should not have taken place. 45 000 people attended, then spread out over Italy, Spain, -1

[reohn2]

........If the government really wants to get the country out of the tailspin it's going in, it can by stimulating the economy with both major infrastructure projects, like new hospitals, new vocational colleges to teach useful skills such as engineering, and stuff like government run laboratories that in peace time can do the research, testing and development of rare diseases that the pharmaceutical companies would never do because they're not likely to be profitable. Then these labs can switch to pandemic work at a moments notice. And of course rebuild our manufacturing industry so we manufacture our own solar cells , wind turbines, electric cars, trains, computers, 6G communication systems (scrap 5G because it's fatally flawed on so many levels) Our own bog roll and face mask manufacturing. Lets become greatly more independent of China and the whims of the US.......

The UK government should've been investing in the country just after the 2008 crash with cheap loaned money instead of the crazy austerity program and that mad referendum.
It's what you get by relying on a "service" economy.

[reohn2]

Lots of us have posted uninformed opinions about this, but after we shall know a lot about epidemiology, the study of epidemics, +1. Spreading knowledge (very good) as well as disease (very bad)

The statistics from different countries are surely not comparable, not standardised, there is plenty the experts do not understand

I read in the Guardian about a football match between an Italian and a Spanish team a few weeks ago, it should not have taken place. 45 000 people attended, then spread out over Italy, Spain, -1

The WHO was warning of this in February,they're pretty well informed I'd say,unless you believe the odd individual who still believe it's all a hoax and no worse than flu!

[reohn2]

Just to add,in the linked article by Oldjohnw above it mentions how there's been no mention in the UK about Eire's response to the virus,funny that

[irc]

Ireland may just have allowed the pace. Short of a vaccine this virus may just keep spreading. So the UK may have higher numbers now with a faster initial spread. Let's see how it looks 6 months down the line.

[The utility cyclist]

2017/18 - 49,410 EWD that being ALL underlying reason for death, over a 13 week period that is 3801 excess weekly deaths, every single week for that period, mostly from viral transmittable ailments, no reaction, none, nada. 1998/99 48,420 EWD, population adjusted this exceeds the 17/18 total.

2020 - C.19 listed on death certificate to week end 3rd April - 3475, that's with massively greater testing for it which includes deaths WITH or underlying condition but is not specified (why when this is not done for any other virus), so will as per Neil Ferguson's own statement the vast majority will NOT be underlying cause. Despite this massive bias both in testing numbers comparative to previous viruses and respiratory diseases AND bias in terms of the number including WITH not just underlying cause of death, the figure is still 10% lower than previous years, reaction, absolute meltdown.

Yup, you can make numbers show whatever you like but you can't hide the truth that not only is this nowhere near as bad as being made out - “Status of COVID-19: As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK." but also that there is no justification for the reaction/lockdown.

I'm done proving the lies and spin, the treachery by so called scientists and experts, by politicians is sickening, they who have brought this country to its knees and destroyed our economy and our way of life, all because they don't want to admit their mistakes and that they were wrong, because they do not want to be labelled and not to lose all respect or to lose their career.
The poor sods who will die prematurely because of this in the next 10-20 years, the poor sods who will suffer in even greater numbers over the next few decades and more because of this reaction. people talk about saving lives, what utter BS! Ignorance is bliss it would seem.

[The utility cyclist]

Lots of us have posted uninformed opinions about this, but after we shall know a lot about epidemiology, the study of epidemics, +1. Spreading knowledge (very good) as well as disease (very bad)

The statistics from different countries are surely not comparable, not standardised, there is plenty the experts do not understand

I read in the Guardian about a football match between an Italian and a Spanish team a few weeks ago, it should not have taken place. 45 000 people attended, then spread out over Italy, Spain, -1

The WHO was warning of this in February,they're pretty well informed I'd say,unless you believe the odd individual who still believe it's all a hoax and no worse than flu!

WHO are led by morons who despite knowing full well mortality rates cannot be taken as gospel without widespread testing over a widespread section of society but also that if you load bias into the testing this produces massively inflated %, yet they still came up with 1-3.4% as the mortality rate which is what the UK modelled upon to come up with the 500k-1.5M deaths. The number of deaths modelled on doing absolutely zero, when we never ever do nothing, something to reduce spread of infectious diseases is always done.
WHO are a bunch of shills protecting their funding, they cannot be trusted when they make basic errors in something so important as mortality rate that causes a global economic crash and welfare of human beings fall through the floor, they are a disgrace and should be investigated because of the damage they have done! We already know the top boss is a corrupt tea leaf.

[PH]

I'm done proving the lies and spin, the treachery by so called scientists and experts, by politicians is sickening, they who have brought this country to its knees and destroyed our economy and our way of life, all because they don't want to admit their mistakes and that they were wrong, because they do not want to be labelled and not to lose all respect or to lose their career.

It's not just our country though is it?
This conspiracy seems to have united the World, it's the only thing every government except Belarus have ever all agreed on. Every ideology, every religion, every social group, the first world and the developing world, the rich and poor, the communists and the capitalists, the Taliban and the orthodox Jews. If you were right it would be a bigger conspiracy than convincing us a flat earth was round or that we'd been to the moon.
It's evident that you've proved it to your own satisfaction, you rant about the misuse of statistics while filling every post with statistics, you rely on expert opinion while dismissing the vast majority of it, you've reached your own conclusions while calling others delusional. Do you never question how you can be right when nearly everyone else is so wrong?

[reohn2]

WHO are led by morons who despite knowing full well mortality rates cannot be taken as gospel without widespread testing over a widespread section of society but also that if you load bias into the testing this produces massively inflated %, yet they still came up with 1-3.4% as the mortality rate which is what the UK modelled upon to come up with the 500k-1.5M deaths. The number of deaths modelled on doing absolutely zero, when we never ever do nothing, something to reduce spread of infectious diseases is always done.
WHO are a bunch of shills protecting their funding, they cannot be trusted when they make basic errors in something so important as mortality rate that causes a global economic crash and welfare of human beings fall through the floor, they are a disgrace and should be investigated because of the damage they have done! We already know the top boss is a corrupt tea leaf.

The UK is less than threee months into this and the death toll with "cooked books" is at 12,000 and rising at 800 daily last time I looked,we have no vaccine yet,and we don't even know if people who've had the virus are immune or not.
There are some countries who've moved quickly on it and have it under control,the UK not surprisingly,isn't in that number.

It must great to know what no one else knows,bar a few with similar views.Yer one clever dude and if you're right and the world's wrong I'll be the first to congratulate you.
Stay Safe

[Postboxer]

A sobering observation from Ireland:

Why is coronavirus killing so many more people in the UK than in Ireland?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard

It may be the UK had cases earlier so it hasn't spread there as much yet or it may be that their government took better action, sooner. This may be helped by the previous employment of the Irish PM. Whereas Boris Johnson doesn't appear to have ever had a 'proper job'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52177696

[pwa]

A sobering observation from Ireland:

Why is coronavirus killing so many more people in the UK than in Ireland?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard

It may be the UK had cases earlier so it hasn't spread there as much yet or it may be that their government took better action, sooner. This may be helped by the previous employment of the Irish PM. Whereas Boris Johnson doesn't appear to have ever had a 'proper job'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52177696

Diseases spread easier in built up areas. Ireland is largely rural, and apart from Dublin it has no real cities of any size.

[carpetcleaner]

I don't know if the WHO is doing the right thing or not but it is an agency of the United Nations.

The UN is an organisation which allows countries with appalling human rights records onto its main human rights body. For example Cuba was on it until last year and Qatar is on it now.

That doesn't inspire me with much confidence that the WHO is run properly and free of political influences.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Na ... il#Current

[roubaixtuesday]

Diseases spread easier in built up areas. Ireland is largely rural, and apart from Dublin it has no real cities of any size.

The transmission rate of the virus, characterised by the doubling rate in the initial exponential phase, has been remarkably consistent across all geographies and cultures, at 3-4 days.

Once social distancing is imposed, the doubling time rises.

This strongly suggests that the geographical characteristics you cite are not particularly significant, for whatever reason, but rather that the faster response of the Irish authorities is what has made the difference.

Here's a modeling paper showing calculated Ro (before lockdown) values in different territories if interested, though it doesn't include Ireland you can see how consistent it is elsewhere.

https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress. ... tional.pdf