Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.
User avatar
The utility cyclist
Posts: 3313
Joined: 22 Aug 2016, 12:28pm
Location: The first garden city

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 1 Jul 2020, 2:22pm

Postboxer wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:
Here's a screen shot of my spreadsheet comparison to 12th June of weekly deaths in England and Wales from ALL respiratory diseases (incl C.19) as underlying cause, again all data taken directly from the register at ONS, no fake news/inaccurate graphs showing deaths that are not from C.19 at all, just raw data.




Have you got a link to the raw data please? I've been trying to find it on the ONS website but can't find any lists of causes of death. All I find is the weekly report which doesn't appear to have causes of death included.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales

They even include neo-natals in the c.19 mentioned deaths but don't include neonatal in the respiratory deaths as underlying cause count, thus making out many deaths of babies to be from C.19 when in fact they aren't at all as they are never counted in the respiratory deaths section ever so cannot by definition be a C.19 'death' this is what they've done were C.19 is 'mentioned' on death certificate, counted it as a C.19 death when in fact for the most part it clearly isn't and cannot be as the total respiratory death total is far lower than the C.19 total, a massive manipulation and locking down based on that as well as the utter nonsense modelling using infant school thinking regards mortality rate and R numbers that ignore joined up thinking totally :roll:
" Counts of deaths by underlying cause exclude deaths at age under 28 days. Counts of deaths involving Covid-19 will include neonatals."

User avatar
[XAP]Bob
Posts: 17480
Joined: 26 Sep 2008, 4:12pm

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby [XAP]Bob » 1 Jul 2020, 5:38pm

Hence why I was looking at the surplus over the expected weekly rate.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

reohn2
Posts: 39659
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 2 Jul 2020, 10:03am

-----------------------------------------------------------
I cycle therefore I am.

User avatar
The utility cyclist
Posts: 3313
Joined: 22 Aug 2016, 12:28pm
Location: The first garden city

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 6 Jul 2020, 10:52pm

Top scientists including Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt denounce lockdown and state that Neil Ferguson et al were massively wrong and the modelling was a "disgrace"
Professor Beda Stadler Chairman Of Immuniology Dept University of Bern states that the testing kits that were coming out of China (and likely elsewhere) will test positive for pretty much everything.
he also states that the statements regarding no immunity was also false and no-one had an assay to prove that was true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-Jsz8b ... e=emb_logo

User avatar
The utility cyclist
Posts: 3313
Joined: 22 Aug 2016, 12:28pm
Location: The first garden city

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 6 Jul 2020, 11:50pm


mjal
Posts: 15
Joined: 4 Jul 2011, 2:22pm

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby mjal » 7 Jul 2020, 12:22am

I told myself not to waste any more time and energy in engaging with TUC...but here are some quotes from the good Prof Stadler's article (Google translated from German) to which TUC directs us :

"SARS-Cov-2 is not that new at all, but a seasonal cold virus that is mutated and, like all other cold viruses, disappears in summer-
which can now be observed almost everywhere in the world"

"The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but this will not be a second wave, just a cold."

Publication date for this article appears to be 12 June. Is it possible to believe that Stadler can make such statements at that time? A few minutes perusal of https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries will show the true picture in USA, Brazil, India etc. And TUC relies on this person for "evidence" to back his usual outlandish theories.

PS : before anyone brings up the old "but more tests are being done" point, remember that the proportion of positive tests in many areas (of the USA, for example) is increasing.

Vorpal
Moderator
Posts: 18278
Joined: 19 Jan 2009, 3:34pm
Location: Not there ;)

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Vorpal » 7 Jul 2020, 8:40am

I guess 99% of scientists are wrong, yet again. [/sarcasm]
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

reohn2
Posts: 39659
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 7 Jul 2020, 9:14am

I see BoJo is now trying to blame care home staff for the high death tol of people in theie care :?
-----------------------------------------------------------
I cycle therefore I am.

ANTONISH
Posts: 1835
Joined: 26 Mar 2009, 9:49am

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby ANTONISH » 9 Jul 2020, 11:44am

reohn2 wrote:I see BoJo is now trying to blame care home staff for the high death tol of people in theie care :?


Well you can't expect him to blame himself :shock:

When the buck stops it stops at some overworked and underpaid care worker struggling to do their job without the benefit of the required PPE.

"From the beginning we threw a protective shield around care homes" says Hancock - would you buy a second hand car from either of them?

User avatar
The utility cyclist
Posts: 3313
Joined: 22 Aug 2016, 12:28pm
Location: The first garden city

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 9 Jul 2020, 12:06pm

mjal wrote:I told myself not to waste any more time and energy in engaging with TUC...but here are some quotes from the good Prof Stadler's article (Google translated from German) to which TUC directs us :

"SARS-Cov-2 is not that new at all, but a seasonal cold virus that is mutated and, like all other cold viruses, disappears in summer-
which can now be observed almost everywhere in the world"

"The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but this will not be a second wave, just a cold."

Publication date for this article appears to be 12 June. Is it possible to believe that Stadler can make such statements at that time? A few minutes perusal of https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries will show the true picture in USA, Brazil, India etc. And TUC relies on this person for "evidence" to back his usual outlandish theories.

PS : before anyone brings up the old "but more tests are being done" point, remember that the proportion of positive tests in many areas (of the USA, for example) is increasing.

Don't waste your time then, just look at the actual raw data at the register of deaths, this proves comprehensively that the government and WHO are lying about the death toll. I even made a formal complaint to ONS regards their blatant 'mistake' when they stated that the majority of deaths were FROM C.19 when this was the complete opposite.
They are complicit along with government in terms of spreading false news and causing people to live in fear of a minor virus strain,

Keep sticking your head in the sand to the actual facts and keep not engaging. :roll:

User avatar
The utility cyclist
Posts: 3313
Joined: 22 Aug 2016, 12:28pm
Location: The first garden city

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 9 Jul 2020, 12:13pm

Vorpal wrote:I guess 99% of scientists are wrong, yet again. [/sarcasm]

99% of scientists are too afraid to reveal the truth because they want to keep their jobs, if you can't accept that not sticking your head above the parapet is what the majority do then you've got some logical thinking problems. This type of being wrong and following the herd of other 'experts' happens everywhere, this was discussed regards economic forcasters by one of the head bods at the IMF.
'Prakash Loungani at the IMF analysed the accuracy of economic forecasters and found something remarkable and worrying. “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” he said.
His analysis revealed that economists had failed to predict 148 of the past 150 recessions. Part of the problem, he said, was that there wasn’t much of a reputational gain to be had by predicting a recession others had missed. If you disagreed with the consensus, you would be met with scepticism.

Being outed as being massively wrong and then admitting that mistake which goes against the grain of the masses is in the current climate a career ender, on top of that because of the damage locking down and the (over) reaction to a minor virus strain would mean law-suits on an unprecendented level plus calls for genocide charges against WHO, various governments around the world and the heads of the so called 99% of 'experts to also be on the chopping block.
Do you think you would stand up and admit you were wrong on such a massive scale, would you stand up against the masses knowing you would be ridiculed, lose your job, your reputation and be attacked, extremely unlikely.

Phileas
Posts: 277
Joined: 18 Feb 2009, 6:12pm
Location: Bristol

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Phileas » 9 Jul 2020, 12:46pm

The utility cyclist wrote:99% of scientists are too afraid to reveal the truth


So they just make up experimental results?

roubaixtuesday
Posts: 3134
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby roubaixtuesday » 9 Jul 2020, 1:02pm

Phileas wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:99% of scientists are too afraid to reveal the truth


So they just make up experimental results?


No, they also coordinate with other scientists across the world to make sure everyone is making up the results in a consistent way. Obviously.

Oldjohnw
Posts: 4665
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Oldjohnw » 9 Jul 2020, 1:03pm

Like Messrs Trump and Bolsonaro, listening to experts, especially medical ones, is unnecessary. And in any case, costs money.
John

User avatar
The utility cyclist
Posts: 3313
Joined: 22 Aug 2016, 12:28pm
Location: The first garden city

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 9 Jul 2020, 1:37pm

Phileas wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:99% of scientists are too afraid to reveal the truth


So they just make up experimental results?

Well that's exactly what they've done isn't it?
A test so flawed that we know full well it cannot isolate the virus strain, otherwise why would the government force the hand of doctors to write C.19 on a death certificate when there's no test whatsoever done, or a negative test but 'symptoms', put down C19 instead of or as well as pneumonia. A test we know gives a positive from dead organic matter (admitted by WHO) or just a single cell of a virus that may or may not be SARS-COV- 2 because of the amplification of such.
We know that they make up the numbers to show something that does not exist in terms of mortality rate ( Neil ferguson's 'modelling' proven time and again to be absolute pony!), also in terms of R number by manipulating what a test represents, test one person 4 times in a day with a faulty test at that and get 4 positives, this is then used to represent 4 people. Test more people again with a faulty test and you get more positive tests, Leicester shut down on the back of flawed methodology and confirmation bias ... yet again. How can you not see this, I'm sure the so called experts see it but are just so deep into the web of lies and deceit they cannot back track so continue to go with the herd/consensus.