Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

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Vorpal
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Vorpal » 9 Jul 2020, 2:59pm

The utility cyclist wrote:
Phileas wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:99% of scientists are too afraid to reveal the truth


So they just make up experimental results?

Well that's exactly what they've done isn't it?
A test so flawed that we know full well it cannot isolate the virus strain, otherwise why would the government force the hand of doctors to write C.19 on a death certificate when there's no test whatsoever done, or a negative test but 'symptoms', put down C19 instead of or as well as pneumonia. A test we know gives a positive from dead organic matter (admitted by WHO) or just a single cell of a virus that may or may not be SARS-COV- 2 because of the amplification of such.
We know that they make up the numbers to show something that does not exist in terms of mortality rate ( Neil ferguson's 'modelling' proven time and again to be absolute pony!), also in terms of R number by manipulating what a test represents, test one person 4 times in a day with a faulty test at that and get 4 positives, this is then used to represent 4 people. Test more people again with a faulty test and you get more positive tests, Leicester shut down on the back of flawed methodology and confirmation bias ... yet again. How can you not see this, I'm sure the so called experts see it but are just so deep into the web of lies and deceit they cannot back track so continue to go with the herd/consensus.


The test is not designed to isolate any virus strains. It is designed to determine if the person has COVID-19. Separate testing must be done to isolate strains. Most test have some margin of error. The most common form of the COVID-19 test (nasal swab) is not especially accurate as such things go, For the COVID-19 test, they have opted for a quicker but less accurate test, which is one reason that naval ships, for example, require multiple negative test before someone can be considered recovered. And some people never produce a high enough viral count in their mucus to test positive, even when they can be diagnosed by symptoms. So, I think it is important to allow for medical judgement.

You are criticising the accuracy of the test on one hand, and criticising the lack of a test on the other. How do those add up?

I really struggle to see how this can all be down to the vast majority of the scientific community are just lying because of peer pressure.

But, if for a moment, we do assume just that, how should we model this virus and our behaviour? How should we plan for long term impacts, and ongoing support for those who have long term illness as a result of it?
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Audax67 » 9 Jul 2020, 3:59pm

Thanks for writing that, Vorpal, I was too Image to know where to begin.

But you have to respect a man(?) who knows 99% of scientists well enough to say they're afraid. Dontcha? :shock:
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Oldjohnw » 9 Jul 2020, 4:29pm

Is 99% an accurate statistic?
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Audax67 » 9 Jul 2020, 4:32pm

And for an idea of how hard it is to get an overview of how this disease persists in a population, and therefore what a positive test is liable to mean, try this: https://youtu.be/KRCnj3c_x7U starting at 2:12 to avoid stats on how SARS-CoV-2 is succeeding in the US.

BTW, that ^^^ is update #93 of a series. For an overview of the entire pandemic go back to the beginning and watch all 93.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Audax67 » 9 Jul 2020, 4:34pm

Oldjohnw wrote:Is 99% an accurate statistic?


It's accurate that it's a statistic. How reliable it is I wouldn't care to say. :D
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 9 Jul 2020, 5:18pm

ANTONISH wrote:
reohn2 wrote:I see BoJo is now trying to blame care home staff for the high death tol of people in theie care :?


Well you can't expect him to blame himself :shock:

When the buck stops it stops at some overworked and underpaid care worker struggling to do their job without the benefit of the required PPE.

"From the beginning we threw a protective shield around care homes" says Hancock - would you buy a second hand car from either of them?

I would even give so much as a second glance at a new car they were selling!
There's liars,damned liars and then there's Tories,a worse bunch of shysters running the country you couldn't witness,they make Delboy and Rodders look positively legit and trust worthy :twisted: .

BTW my eldest daughter is one of those careworkers.
A five minute chat with her will put the record straight as to whether any protective shield was put around carehomes,I know who I'll believe,and it ain't morally bankrupt,and disgusting lying Hanock or the present liar and clownatic we for have for a PM.
Last edited by reohn2 on 9 Jul 2020, 5:32pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 9 Jul 2020, 5:28pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
Phileas wrote:
The utility cyclist wrote:99% of scientists are too afraid to reveal the truth


So they just make up experimental results?


No, they also coordinate with other scientists across the world to make sure everyone is making up the results in a consistent way. Obviously.

So countries around the wold can wreck their ecomonies in perfect coordinated synchronicity,whilst at the same time putting their respective health service staff under unbearable strain.
It's the in thing ATM :?
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 9 Jul 2020, 9:27pm

“Southampton endured the biggest week-on-week rise in coronavirus infection rates, jumping 12-fold”

That’s my neck of the woods, and I’m not remotely surprised. I bet a fair proportion of the idiots on the beach at Bournemouth a couple of weeks back hailed from here. I can’t be the only one who saw this coming. Oh well, never mind. The idiots will be locked down again before the end of the week (no doubt). It won’t effect me massively because I’m a ‘key worker’ who rides a bike a lot. I hope ( but I doubt ) the complete idiots who’ve caused this, take note this time.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Oldjohnw » 13 Jul 2020, 9:07am

30-year-old dies after attending 'Covid party' in Texas

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... _clipboard
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby The utility cyclist » 13 Jul 2020, 1:49pm

Marcus Aurelius wrote:“Southampton endured the biggest week-on-week rise in coronavirus infection rates, jumping 12-fold”

That’s my neck of the woods, and I’m not remotely surprised. I bet a fair proportion of the idiots on the beach at Bournemouth a couple of weeks back hailed from here. I can’t be the only one who saw this coming. Oh well, never mind. The idiots will be locked down again before the end of the week (no doubt). It won’t effect me massively because I’m a ‘key worker’ who rides a bike a lot. I hope ( but I doubt ) the complete idiots who’ve caused this, take note this time.

What were the testing numbers before and after - you wont get that because letting the public know the actual test numbers have now being stopped by government, how many actual people were tested, as opposed to multiple tests on same persons which has been happening across the world to produce bogus R numbers and 'infections'?

If they are still using the flawed test they've always had, the numbers are meaningless, but let's go with the 12 fold, how many people have gone into hospital and/or died as a result of this increase and what have they actually died FROM/underlying cause, as we know, it's the only accurate way to code/record a death, you don't record a death WITH something unless you are a government/organisation hell bent on deceiving the world on the actual threat of a virus/disease :twisted:

Every week we see that the number of deaths FROM respiratory diseases has fallen far below the average for the previous 5 years, in line with what it was right at the start of the year, not because of the measures put in place but because respiratory diseases was already on a declination and has remained so throughout.

So let's see the actual numbers from the flawed test in Southampton and how many have being hospitalised/died FROM the virus, afterall this is the thread regards STATS, not gossip and unbacked headlines ... :roll:

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby [XAP]Bob » 13 Jul 2020, 1:57pm

12 fold from 1 to 12 is also different from 1000 to 12000.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby mercalia » 13 Jul 2020, 3:43pm

from the Spectator, so you know its true in this case?

Capture.JPG


Damns Johnson?

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Marcus Aurelius » 13 Jul 2020, 9:15pm

The utility cyclist wrote:
Marcus Aurelius wrote:“Southampton endured the biggest week-on-week rise in coronavirus infection rates, jumping 12-fold”

That’s my neck of the woods, and I’m not remotely surprised. I bet a fair proportion of the idiots on the beach at Bournemouth a couple of weeks back hailed from here. I can’t be the only one who saw this coming. Oh well, never mind. The idiots will be locked down again before the end of the week (no doubt). It won’t effect me massively because I’m a ‘key worker’ who rides a bike a lot. I hope ( but I doubt ) the complete idiots who’ve caused this, take note this time.

What were the testing numbers before and after - you wont get that because letting the public know the actual test numbers have now being stopped by government, how many actual people were tested, as opposed to multiple tests on same persons which has been happening across the world to produce bogus R numbers and 'infections'?

If they are still using the flawed test they've always had, the numbers are meaningless, but let's go with the 12 fold, how many people have gone into hospital and/or died as a result of this increase and what have they actually died FROM/underlying cause, as we know, it's the only accurate way to code/record a death, you don't record a death WITH something unless you are a government/organisation hell bent on deceiving the world on the actual threat of a virus/disease :twisted:

Every week we see that the number of deaths FROM respiratory diseases has fallen far below the average for the previous 5 years, in line with what it was right at the start of the year, not because of the measures put in place but because respiratory diseases was already on a declination and has remained so throughout.

So let's see the actual numbers from the flawed test in Southampton and how many have being hospitalised/died FROM the virus, afterall this is the thread regards STATS, not gossip and unbacked headlines ... :roll:



“SOUTHAMPTON has seen a spike in Covid-19 cases in the past week following an earlier drop.

The city saw coronavirus infection rates jump from four new cases for every 100,000 residents to 5.1 in the week ending July 10.

The latest figures released by Public Health England show the rate has also increased in the New Forest with 1.1 cases to 0.6.

However, other parts of Hampshire have seen a decrease, with the Test Valley dropping from 2.4 to 1.6 and Eastleigh from 1.5 to 0.8.

Meanwhile, the rate in Winchester has gone from 1.6 to 0.8 and in Portsmouth from 3.3 to 1.4.


New data is released each week and shows how rates of positive coronavirus tests are changing in each area.

The figures, which are for the seven days to July 10, are based on tests carried out in laboratories and in the wider community.

The rate is expressed as the new number of new cases per 100,000 population.

In Leicester, the rate has fallen slightly from 117.7 in the seven days to July 3 to 114.3 in the seven days to July 10. It was 156.8 in the seven days to June 26.

Second on the list is Pendle, where the rate has gone up from 14.2 to 67.8. This has been caused by a spike in new cases recorded on July 6 and 7.

The jump in the rate for Herefordshire from 1.6 to 36.4 is due to 63 cases being recorded on July 9, linked to an outbreak on a farm near Worcester”
Quoted from the Southern Daily Echo, today.

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Oldjohnw » 14 Jul 2020, 9:00am

I see Mr Hancock is closing all stable doors in 10 days time.

Meanwhile, I wonder if he will write on the side of a bus: "Brexit - £13bn and rising, could've gone to the NHS".
John

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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby mercalia » 14 Jul 2020, 12:22pm

so the experts think there will be a repeat+ this winter?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now?

I think I will slowly start to stock up again so I dont need to go out in Winter