Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

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Psamathe
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Psamathe » 30 Nov 2020, 11:26am

Tangled Metal wrote:.....
Certainly if schools were that hotbed of virus propagation then they'd have sorted out a better home schooling system I reckon. The fact all years have been encouraged back doesn't support the higher risk status imho. But then I'm no more an expert than the people expressing the virus hotbed idea.....

I've not read the detail nor looked into the sources but
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/independent-sage-coronavirus-infection-schools-b1762906.html wrote:Coronavirus: Scientists call for action after 50-fold rise in infections in schools
Teenagers aged 11-16 are now the age group with the highest levels of infection in England, and one in ten are reported to be off school either because of confirmed or suspected coronavirus or because they have been in contact with a potentially contagious person.

While many teens show no symptoms from Covid-19, the Independent Sage group warned that they risk bringing the virus home to parents and grandparents, who are more vulnerable to developing serious health problems.

Ian

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby [XAP]Bob » 30 Nov 2020, 3:37pm

They are also the group with the largest bubbles and the best T&T system...

It’s hardly surprising that they are over represented in the “isolating due to a contact” group.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

Tangled Metal
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Tangled Metal » 30 Nov 2020, 3:47pm

Also where did they contract the virus? I could say those figures are due to out of school activities and you'd be unable to prove me wrong with that blind statistic.

A single statistic offers little clue to what the situation is it takes robust research into then matter and aiui all such research indicates schools are no more likely to breed virus outbreaks than the general population in the communities they're based in.

kwackers
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby kwackers » 30 Nov 2020, 3:59pm

Tangled Metal wrote:all such research indicates schools are no more likely to breed virus outbreaks than the general population in the communities they're based in.

That's only true if children can't spread the virus.
A friend of mine and her family all came down with it as did her 10 year old son and a chunk of his classmates.
Neither she or her husbands workmates came down with the bug which leaves only one vector.

So self evidently each child represents a bubble with their parents.
We go to great lengths to stop the parents mixing but allow their bubbles to mix via their children.
That there was such a big rise in cases when schools went back isn't particularly surprising, ditto universities where the virus ran riot.

(Interestingly her son was quite ill, which did surprise me given what we're told).

reohn2
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby reohn2 » 30 Nov 2020, 5:45pm

Just seen this on LBC:- https://youtu.be/8JR1nnDKakc
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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby [XAP]Bob » 30 Nov 2020, 6:02pm

kwackers wrote:That there was such a big rise in cases when schools went back isn't particularly surprising, ditto universities where the virus ran riot.

(Interestingly her son was quite ill, which did surprise me given what we're told).



The rise was well predicted by the scientists, which is why their advice was “open schools, close pubs/restaurants”.

Less likely to be severe has little bearing on the individual.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby roubaixtuesday » 30 Nov 2020, 6:08pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:
Less likely to be severe has little bearing on the individual.


Yeah, and also, "severe" in medical terms might be another thing entirely from severe in layman's terms. I think anything less than requiring hospitalisation might count as "not severe"...

Jdsk
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Jdsk » 30 Nov 2020, 6:18pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
[XAP]Bob wrote:
Less likely to be severe has little bearing on the individual.

Yeah, and also, "severe" in medical terms might be another thing entirely from severe in layman's terms. I think anything less than requiring hospitalisation might count as "not severe"...

NIH clinical stratification:
https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines. ... sentation/

Asymptomatic or Presymptomatic Infection: Individuals who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 using a virologic test (i.e., a nucleic acid amplification test or an antigen test), but who have no symptoms that are consistent with COVID-19.
Mild Illness: Individuals who have any of the various signs and symptoms of COVID-19 (e.g., fever, cough, sore throat, malaise, headache, muscle pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, loss of taste and smell) but who do not have shortness of breath, dyspnea, or abnormal chest imaging.
Moderate Illness: Individuals who show evidence of lower respiratory disease during clinical assessment or imaging and who have saturation of oxygen (SpO2) ≥94% on room air at sea level.
Severe Illness: Individuals who have SpO2 <94% on room air at sea level, a ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) <300 mmHg, respiratory frequency >30 breaths per minute, or lung infiltrates >50%.
Critical Illness: Individuals who have respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction.

Jonathan

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby roubaixtuesday » 30 Nov 2020, 6:21pm

Jdsk wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
[XAP]Bob wrote:
Less likely to be severe has little bearing on the individual.

Yeah, and also, "severe" in medical terms might be another thing entirely from severe in layman's terms. I think anything less than requiring hospitalisation might count as "not severe"...

NIH clinical stratification:
https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines. ... sentation/

Asymptomatic or Presymptomatic Infection: Individuals who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 using a virologic test (i.e., a nucleic acid amplification test or an antigen test), but who have no symptoms that are consistent with COVID-19.
Mild Illness: Individuals who have any of the various signs and symptoms of COVID-19 (e.g., fever, cough, sore throat, malaise, headache, muscle pain, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, loss of taste and smell) but who do not have shortness of breath, dyspnea, or abnormal chest imaging.
Moderate Illness: Individuals who show evidence of lower respiratory disease during clinical assessment or imaging and who have saturation of oxygen (SpO2) ≥94% on room air at sea level.
Severe Illness: Individuals who have SpO2 <94% on room air at sea level, a ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) <300 mmHg, respiratory frequency >30 breaths per minute, or lung infiltrates >50%.
Critical Illness: Individuals who have respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction.

Jonathan


Against which I'd guess "the worst flu I ever had" - when I was so ill I wanted to die and couldn't move for three days - was "mild"...

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fausto copy
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby fausto copy » 30 Nov 2020, 6:24pm

How come Boris was allowed into Wales today?

I was hoping to visit my step-father, who is 90 on Friday and I'm still not allowed only a few miles over the border to see him for the first time since March. :evil:

Edit:
Sorry, slightly off topic as not strictly a stat. :?

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby roubaixtuesday » 30 Nov 2020, 6:50pm

fausto copy wrote:How come Boris was allowed into Wales today?

I was hoping to visit my step-father, who is 90 on Friday and I'm still not allowed only a few miles over the border to see him for the first time since March. :evil:

Edit:
Sorry, slightly off topic as not strictly a stat. :?


He's allowed to for work.

Bonefishblues
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Bonefishblues » 30 Nov 2020, 6:59pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
fausto copy wrote:How come Boris was allowed into Wales today?

I was hoping to visit my step-father, who is 90 on Friday and I'm still not allowed only a few miles over the border to see him for the first time since March. :evil:

Edit:
Sorry, slightly off topic as not strictly a stat. :?


He's allowed to for work.

He should work from home wherever possible under his own regulations. Wales would likely agree :D

Psamathe
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby Psamathe » 30 Nov 2020, 7:33pm

fausto copy wrote:How come Boris was allowed into Wales today?

I was hoping to visit my step-father, who is 90 on Friday and I'm still not allowed only a few miles over the border to see him for the first time since March. :evil:

Edit:
Sorry, slightly off topic as not strictly a stat. :?

When your law-breaking includes illegally closing Parliament, breaking the law by breaking international treaties, etc. ignoring local laws from what he regards as troublesome devolved Governments is trivial.

Ian

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fausto copy
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby fausto copy » 30 Nov 2020, 9:18pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
fausto copy wrote:How come Boris was allowed into Wales today?

I was hoping to visit my step-father, who is 90 on Friday and I'm still not allowed only a few miles over the border to see him for the first time since March. :evil:

Edit:
Sorry, slightly off topic as not strictly a stat. :?


He's allowed to for work.


So, filling one vial in a photo shoot is classed as work nowadays. :?
And strange how he visited one of areas with the highest infection rates. :shock:

kwackers
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Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Postby kwackers » 30 Nov 2020, 9:44pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:
kwackers wrote:That there was such a big rise in cases when schools went back isn't particularly surprising, ditto universities where the virus ran riot.

(Interestingly her son was quite ill, which did surprise me given what we're told).



The rise was well predicted by the scientists, which is why their advice was “open schools, close pubs/restaurants”.

Less likely to be severe has little bearing on the individual.

I tend to rely on New Scientist for my info, it has less sensationalism and more common sense than the rags.
People could be forgiven for thinking that everything is up in the air yet when you read through the articles in NS from the very start nothing much has changed.
The overall consensus remains the same and what was predicted by the scientists back then pretty much came to pass as written.

Even so the percentages of a 10 year old badly(ish) affected by the virus even according to them is pretty low which is why I was surprised - not because I didn't think it could happen, simply because with such low odds I was surprised I knew someone who was affected.


Bloke next door to me died, he was 94 and got the virus in March. He supposedly recovered but was left very frail and succumbed to his frailness in October.
I wonder what they wrote on his death certificate?