Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

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ChrisF
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Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby ChrisF » 28 May 2020, 8:15pm

Maybe someone can fill in the gaps in my understanding of what's been started today.

Apparently, if someone has symptons of CV they should alert the health service and get tested. For a positive test (let's not get into test delays here, that's a different story) that person will then be contacted by a (mostly) inexperienced person to ask if they have been 'in contact' with others since two days before their symptons.
'In contact' is defined by being less than 2m away from someone for 15 minutes or more. But under current rules, nobody can ever be in that situation, unless:
    they are already in a shared household, in which case contact-tracing staff aren't needed;
    they are in a public transport environment, in which case they won't know the names of the people they are in contact with (although I admit, the delayed smartphone app may help with this);
    they are working with someone in a factory etc, in which case (as with households) external contact tracing insn't necessary.
    they are already breaking the law, in which case they won't admit it to the contact tracer;
So who are these tracers going to find, exactly?
It might make more sense if the system was introduced alongside a big reduction in lockdown rules, e.g. cafes and pubs re-opening. But the management of these (shops as well) will be busy working out how to keep the current 2 metre rule, in whch case again very few peope are ever going to be defined as 'in contact'.
So what is the point? Maybe practice for the far-off days when social distancing can be abolished for most people. But in the meantime these 25,000 tracers will not be able to find anyone to advise, so they won't get much practice.

Very happy for someone here to put me right on this!
Chris F, Cornwall

Postboxer
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby Postboxer » 28 May 2020, 8:35pm

I've not looked into it but I assume you are right. Perhaps they want a record of who you have been in contact with, even though you know them, so they can centrally organise testing of them and recording whether any of them get symptoms, so they build a picture of how it is spreading and details of the contact you had with them but without knowing who's on each public transport vehicle and where, for long trains and trams, it will be missing lots of information.

thirdcrank
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby thirdcrank » 28 May 2020, 8:50pm

You are not supposed to understand.

It seems that the most successful countries in terms of minimising deaths have had a version of this all along so if we have our own version, however belatedly, it's a good thing.

In spite of months of faffing about, this is reported to have the signs of being rushed in before it's ready.

Just the thing to try to move on.

Vitara
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby Vitara » 28 May 2020, 9:06pm

No idea how well the track and trace will work, but our own experience of testing this week has been OK

Through the test centre in less than 30 minutes, results (negative) texted to us 36 hours later.

Of course others may have different experiences, but as people are more likely to report a bad experience than a good one we are seeing a skewed picture.

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simonineaston
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby simonineaston » 28 May 2020, 9:06pm

A recipe for confusion and mistrust, I fear... First thing that strikes me, is that like all large IT projects, it well need time to bed-in and troubleshoot, and as the days when it remains unreliable stretch into weeks and - who knows? - even months, any remaining credibility will have long gone. Add the simple fact that 5 day turn-around for results is waaaaay too long. Over in the far-east, they were managing 24 hours, which is what you need for the system to have any chance of working... "World-class", my [bottom-related word that rhymes with grass...]!
byyeee,
SiE

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mjr
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby mjr » 28 May 2020, 9:08pm

And if they do find anyone, apparently they phone them up, tell them to isolate, and the recipient of the phone call has no way to check they're genuine.

Also, there's currently no sanction if they tell the tracer to get bent because Dominic, or because they can't afford to take two weeks off on statutory.

I suspect this isn't going to work.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

pwa
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby pwa » 28 May 2020, 11:04pm

mjr wrote:And if they do find anyone, apparently they phone them up, tell them to isolate, and the recipient of the phone call has no way to check they're genuine.

Also, there's currently no sanction if they tell the tracer to get bent because Dominic, or because they can't afford to take two weeks off on statutory.

I suspect this isn't going to work.

I suppose it relies on most people doing what is required, rather than everyone.

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mjr
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby mjr » 28 May 2020, 11:13pm

pwa wrote:
mjr wrote:And if they do find anyone, apparently they phone them up, tell them to isolate, and the recipient of the phone call has no way to check they're genuine.

Also, there's currently no sanction if they tell the tracer to get bent because Dominic, or because they can't afford to take two weeks off on statutory.

I suspect this isn't going to work.

I suppose it relies on most people doing what is required, rather than everyone.

Sort of: even 80% of people going into quarantine when asked would prevent just 15% of infections (source) and I doubt we're going to see that many of the population obeying instructions given by anonymous unsolicited phone calls. I'd be surprised if it was as high as 2 out of 3 - it was just 1 out of 3 in one pilot project.

I also note that it seems England is only aiming to trace contacts "within three days" whereas successful places like New Zealand aimed for 80% traced within 48 hours. If symptom onset is typically 3-5 days behind infection, there's a fairly big difference in effectiveness between 2 and 3 days.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby [XAP]Bob » 29 May 2020, 12:49am

thirdcrank wrote:You are not supposed to understand.

It seems that the most successful countries in terms of minimising deaths have had a version of this all along so if we have our own version, however belatedly, it's a good thing.

In spite of months of faffing about, this is reported to have the signs of being rushed in before it's ready.

Just the thing to try to move on.



Having “our own version” in this case is deciding that triangles would make good wheels.

Data fetishists the lot of them.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.

PH
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby PH » 29 May 2020, 2:18am

mjr wrote:the recipient of the phone call has no way to check they're genuine..

All calls received will be from 0300 0135 000.

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mjr
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby mjr » 29 May 2020, 7:41am

PH wrote:
mjr wrote:the recipient of the phone call has no way to check they're genuine..

All calls received will be from 0300 0135 000.

That's easy enough to fake. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caller_ID_spoofing

It needs something like a way for us to put something into gov.UK and get a reply authenticating the date, time and caller's name.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

DaveReading
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby DaveReading » 29 May 2020, 8:16am

mjr wrote:That's easy enough to fake. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caller_ID_spoofing

Why would anyone bother going to those lengths ?

Fake CV calls are more likely to be from pranksters than from someone trying to defraud you (how?).

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mjr
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby mjr » 29 May 2020, 8:29am

DaveReading wrote:
mjr wrote:That's easy enough to fake. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caller_ID_spoofing

Why would anyone bother going to those lengths ?

Fake CV calls are more likely to be from pranksters than from someone trying to defraud you (how?).

Fraud: the caller will appear to be an authority figure, who can ask for a load of personal details on your contacts without causing alarm and it's not difficult to see how they could estimate during the course of that who might be likely to give more details than they ought, such as their own financial details. Maybe offer to set up some quarantine benefits payments for them?

Denial of service: torpedo a business by phoning up key workers and ordering them to quarantine.

I'm sure other scams can be devised if there's no way to tell who's a real NHS tracer.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

reohn2
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby reohn2 » 29 May 2020, 8:44am

thirdcrank wrote:You are not supposed to understand.

It seems that the most successful countries in terms of minimising deaths have had a version of this all along so if we have our own version, however belatedly, it's a good thing.

In spite of months of faffing about, this is reported to have the signs of being rushed in before it's ready.

Just the thing to try to move on.

Quite!
The shambles we've come to expect from a government completely out of it's depth whilst insisting it didn't need water wings :?
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pwa
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Re: Test, Track and Trace - I don't understand

Postby pwa » 29 May 2020, 9:13am

We have had a lot of praise for nations such as Germany ans South korea which have relied heavily on tracing, and individuals self-isolating when asked. If that doesn't work in the UK because UK citizens won't co-operate for whatever reason, what would that say about UK citizens compared to citizens of Germany or South Korea? Are we incapable of acting in in unified way anymore?

I don't know how this will pan out, but I would hope the people of the UK will mostly see co-operation with Track and Trace as a civic duty, if they still understand that concept. And I think most still do.