Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

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roubaixtuesday
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 22 Jun 2020, 4:38pm

For Al, the epidemics in three countries: China, Germany and UK, presented per capita.

Data is on a logarithmic scale otherwise the China and Germany data would be scarcely visible.

All three countries have a similar profile, the China decline is somewhat sharper as would be expected with a harsher lock down. It is not "sudden"

The UK was already above the China peak *before* we imposed any measures.

Germany started stopping events weeks before we did, and had readied massively more testing.

Screenshot_20200622-162710_Chrome.jpg


Ourworldindata allows you to generate your own comparisons.

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby [XAP]Bob » 22 Jun 2020, 5:57pm

It'll be instructive to see the delta in road deaths over the last 3 months compared with the delta in overall deaths compared with the rolling 5 year average
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roubaixtuesday
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 22 Jun 2020, 6:26pm

And the view from a professor in public health.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... us-britain

We need the govt to have an equally clear strategy.

Carlton green
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby Carlton green » 23 Jun 2020, 8:06am

mjr wrote:
Carlton green wrote:As they say: ‘there are liars, dam liars and statisticians‘. The UK’s population density is also different (much higher and hence more transmission paths per head of population) from other countries

No, they say "figures can't lie but liars can figure" because in reality, the UK's population density isn't "much higher" but only 7th highest in Europe. I know this upsets the anti-anti-British mob, but the UK is not that unusual except in its single-issue minority-elected executive.




Population density figures are independently supplied here:
https://www.worldometers.info/populatio ... opulation/
We have 281 people per square kilometre, that is not the highest in Europe but it is more than the France, Germany, Spain and Italy ... only the Netherlands and Belgium seem to have a greater population density than us.

As the larger European countries go we are one in the most densely populated. Having population centred in metropolitan areas is surely going to aid rather than suppress virus transmission, too.
Last edited by Carlton green on 23 Jun 2020, 8:18am, edited 1 time in total.

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Paulatic
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby Paulatic » 23 Jun 2020, 8:17am

Carlton green wrote:As the larger European countries go we are one in the most densely populated. Having population centred in metropolitan areas is surely going to aid rather than suppress virus transmission, too.


Do those other countries with a lower population density spread their people evenly throughout the entire country or do they also congregate in metropolitan areas?
I think population density is a complete red herring.
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Carlton green
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby Carlton green » 23 Jun 2020, 8:21am

Paulatic wrote:
Carlton green wrote:As the larger European countries go we are one in the most densely populated. Having population centred in metropolitan areas is surely going to aid rather than suppress virus transmission, too.


Do those other countries with a lower population density spread their people evenly throughout the entire country or do they also congregate in metropolitan areas?
I think population density is a complete red herring.


The chart does give urban population information.

I would be wary of suggestion or accepting that any one feature or action is key to all that has happened, it’s a combination of and interaction of many things some of which will have a greater or lesser influence.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby roubaixtuesday » 23 Jun 2020, 8:46am

Carlton green wrote:The chart does give urban population information.

I would be wary of suggestion or accepting that any one feature or action is key to all that has happened, it’s a combination of and interaction of many things some of which will have a greater or lesser influence.


Absolutely.

Whether much higher (Hong Kong) or lower (Norway) population density, whether richer (Germany) or poorer (Vietnam), whether earlier (Austria) or later (Cuba) in the outbreak the one thing all of these countries have in common is that less people have died there.

Unless and until we accept that our management of this has been disastrously bad were have little hope of improving things in the future.

We didn't take it seriously (Madrid bringing fans here when they were banned at home beggars belief), we didn't plan ahead (testing, PPE), we believed we were exceptional and didn't need to follow WHO guidance (testing, herd immunity), we had no strategy or changed it, and our government squandered the trust of the population keep an advisor in work.

It's an absolutely shocking, shameful litany of failure time after time.

And it has directly caused the highest death rate in the world despite having China, Italy and Spain as examples to learn from - unless and until Brazil and USA manage to overhaul us, they're certainly giving it their best shot.

reohn2
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby reohn2 » 23 Jun 2020, 8:59am

^^^Exactly this.
Myself and many,many more people have been saying it all along,the government due to their incompetence have failed in their duty to protect the people of this country.
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djnotts
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby djnotts » 23 Jun 2020, 9:06am

reohn2 wrote:^^^ This.
Myself and many,many more people have been saying it all along,the government due to their incompetence have failed in their duty to protect the people of this country.


No more needs to be said. Except maybe beyond incompetence, I do wonder if deliberate act to reduce the elderly.

reohn2
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby reohn2 » 23 Jun 2020, 9:09am

djnotts wrote:
reohn2 wrote:^^^ This.
Myself and many,many more people have been saying it all along,the government due to their incompetence have failed in their duty to protect the people of this country.


No more needs to be said. Except maybe beyond incompetence, I do wonder if deliberate act to reduce the elderly.

I must admit the thought has crossed my mind a time or two.
My eldest daughter is a manager in a care home,they only received PPE three weeks ago,until then they had to supply their own!
Thankfully due to their strict guidelines they've had no C19 cases in the home
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pwa
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby pwa » 23 Jun 2020, 9:16am

reohn2 wrote:^^^Exactly this.
Myself and many,many more people have been saying it all along,the government due to their incompetence have failed in their duty to protect the people of this country.

I wonder if part of the problem was the general feeling in the UK that we should be free to travel abroad and that restricting that freedom is almost unthinkable. I suspect that when the final accounting is done it will emerge that we should have shut down the ports and airports to passenger travel as much as a month earlier, greatly upsetting folk set on a lovely ski trip to Northern Italy. A recent study suggested the virus was imported by something in the order of 1300 individuals, not just one or two, and I feel that we may have been guilty of wanting to preserve the normality of free and easy travel at the expense of public safety. The Government can and will be held responsible, but I believe the Government reflects the bias of our society. We needed a stronger leader willing to stand up and say to us "You won't like this, but I'm cancelling your ski trip and your weekend in Venice. You'll thank me later".

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mjr
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby mjr » 23 Jun 2020, 9:23am

Carlton green wrote:
mjr wrote:
Carlton green wrote:As they say: ‘there are liars, dam liars and statisticians‘. The UK’s population density is also different (much higher and hence more transmission paths per head of population) from other countries

No, they say "figures can't lie but liars can figure" because in reality, the UK's population density isn't "much higher" but only 7th highest in Europe. I know this upsets the anti-anti-British mob, but the UK is not that unusual except in its single-issue minority-elected executive.




Population density figures are independently supplied here:
https://www.worldometers.info/populatio ... opulation/
We have 281 people per square kilometre, that is not the highest in Europe but it is more than the France, Germany, Spain and Italy ... only the Netherlands and Belgium seem to have a greater population density than us.

Malta and three city states also have higher density

As the larger European countries go we are one in the most densely populated. Having population centred in metropolitan areas is surely going to aid rather than suppress virus transmission, too.

Two moves of the goalposts there: "larger" and "centred".

Like others, I doubt whole-country density is much of a factor. There may be a threshold value above which transmission is greater but I suspect lots of towns exceed it, based on the BBC Contagion simulation.
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mjr
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby mjr » 23 Jun 2020, 9:28am

francovendee wrote:If the staff have been spoken to then a threat of dismissal would come next if rules at work weren't followed.
I wonder if management are reluctant to fire anyone as this sort of work isn't appealing to anyone other than Eastern European workers. Finding English speaking workers willing to do the job may be impossible.

1. Finding them to do it for the same pay probably would. Local independent slaughterers seem to find UK staff but I bet they pay more.
2. That and the reluctance to fire both are faults of the usually-UK bosses but some feel happier to blame foreigners.
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reohn2
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby reohn2 » 23 Jun 2020, 9:29am

pwa wrote:
reohn2 wrote:^^^Exactly this.
Myself and many,many more people have been saying it all along,the government due to their incompetence have failed in their duty to protect the people of this country.

I wonder if part of the problem was the general feeling in the UK that we should be free to travel abroad and that restricting that freedom is almost unthinkable. I suspect that when the final accounting is done it will emerge that we should have shut down the ports and airports to passenger travel as much as a month earlier, greatly upsetting folk set on a lovely ski trip to Northern Italy. A recent study suggested the virus was imported by something in the order of 1300 individuals, not just one or two, and I feel that we may have been guilty of wanting to preserve the normality of free and easy travel at the expense of public safety. The Government can and will be held responsible, but I believe the Government reflects the bias of our society. We needed a stronger leader willing to stand up and say to us "You won't like this, but I'm cancelling your ski trip and your weekend in Venice. You'll thank me later".

I think you're absolutely right in your observation,it's been mine also.
Though believe the government will,as usual,wangely their way out of their responsibility as they did with the Gulf wars,and the 2008 crash when they allowed the banks free rein,it'll be the same story with Grenfell Tower too.
What sickens me to my stomach is those who have the gall to announce that anyone who doesnt trip along the way and believe in sucessive incompetent governments,are labeled "Britain haters" or "Trots" or the same wind up merchants try to pin the blame on the people who look for leadership in time of crisis and find a bunch of clowns who can't lead a column of ants,such is their blinkered outlook.
IMO the present crisis is the summation of ten years of incompetence!
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francovendee
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Re: Do we need to take individual responsibility for Covid prevention measures?

Postby francovendee » 23 Jun 2020, 11:03am

Can't argue with 10 years of poor governance. Even an article in the Mail was critical!.