Earths falling population....

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al_yrpal
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Earths falling population....

Postby al_yrpal » 15 Jul 2020, 6:14pm

I find this article very interesting. Will the human race dwindle away globally with increasing numbers of old people needing to be supported?

BBC News - Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521

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Cyril Haearn
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby Cyril Haearn » 15 Jul 2020, 6:34pm

Not falling yet, not in our lifetimes, rather rising less slowly I think

But nobody knows what might happen tomorrow, let alone in a few decades
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby yakdiver » 15 Jul 2020, 6:37pm

Rising in Dover nearly every day
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uwidavid
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby uwidavid » 15 Jul 2020, 7:21pm

I think this is misleading. First the rise in population now is actually higher than in 1950, but these studies use % change.
So a smaller percent change in a big number is seen as a population slowdown.
(The world population in 1950 was about one third of what it is now).

Carlton green
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby Carlton green » 15 Jul 2020, 7:43pm

It might be a difficult change or transition but I’d be very pleased if the World’s population did somewhat decrease. Working habits will change considerably over the next century and various forms of automation will transform every day life. Full retirement for all might become a thing of the past but not everybody will regret that. I met an acquaintance a few days ago who when they turned 80 gave up their job in a local shop and several years later very much misses it. Many retired people would happily work again, be more socially useful and pay (consequently) pay more in tax if the work was there for them.

Young people need support when they are having and raising children. As a Grandparent I’m happy to give that support - lucky to be able to too - and that support is a very valuable way of stabilising the population. Two or one child per family could become the new norm but it isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’s just a thing to be worked with and to be understood. Might be worth learning some lessons from the Chinese experience and avoiding some of their difficulties.

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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby Vorpal » 15 Jul 2020, 9:39pm

I think that a slowing fertility rate is a good thing. And maybe it is a natural response to excessive population, as well as birth control and the increase in education & careers for women.

As we are living longer, we will contribute for longer, as well. It is a slow change, so society will adjust.

Talking about the the human race disappearing due to decreasing fertility rate, at this point seems silly.

There are far greater existential threats, and TBH, I think if the population reduced significantly, and the planet was still able to support increased population, the fertility rate would probably increase again.
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby Bonefishblues » 15 Jul 2020, 10:02pm

The late Rosling. I've linked before, and likely will do again. One of the most insightful hours one can spend IMHO:

https://youtu.be/FACK2knC08E

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simonineaston
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby simonineaston » 16 Jul 2020, 8:14am

Amusing synchronicity going on there - just as The Earth finally gives up under the strain of too many human animals (see Siberian heat-wave and think about clathrates...), the human's collective psych realises what it's done and attempts - too late - to slam on the brakes! Gaia 1, human sapiens - nil...
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby francovendee » 16 Jul 2020, 8:29am

For those alive in a world with half the current population it might be a much nicer place to live.

Pebble
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby Pebble » 16 Jul 2020, 9:34am

Even amidst the deadliest global virus modern society has ever seen, world population has increased by a whopping 44,000,000 so far this year. The plague of humans infecting the planet is far from in decline.

Meanwhile it is estimated that 100 - 200 species go extinct every single day with a further 1,000,000 other species on the brink of extinction.
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopme ... ed-report/

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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby reohn2 » 16 Jul 2020, 9:40am

yakdiver wrote:Rising in Dover nearly every day

As a result of displaced people from wars we either fund in the shape of arms sales to despotic regemes or we start firsthand without thinking where it will end,then abandon.
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simonineaston
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby simonineaston » 16 Jul 2020, 10:22am

Pebble wrote:Even amidst the deadliest global virus modern society has ever seen, world population has increased by a whopping 44,000,000 so far this year. The plague of humans infecting the planet is far from in decline.

Meanwhile it is estimated that 100 - 200 species go extinct every single day with a further 1,000,000 other species on the brink of extinction.
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopme ... ed-report/
Truly, we have wrecked the place... however our host may have a cunning plan up her sleeve :-)
C19, as diseases go, is small beer (so far...). Consider The Black Death - I read that it may have done for over half of the population of Europe, during the outbreak in the mid 17th century!
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reohn2
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby reohn2 » 16 Jul 2020, 10:55am

Bonefishblues wrote:The late Rosling. I've linked before, and likely will do again. One of the most insightful hours one can spend IMHO:

https://youtu.be/FACK2knC08E


Fascinating and very insightful,thanks for that :)

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reohn2
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby reohn2 » 16 Jul 2020, 10:59am

simonineaston wrote:
Pebble wrote:Even amidst the deadliest global virus modern society has ever seen, world population has increased by a whopping 44,000,000 so far this year. The plague of humans infecting the planet is far from in decline.

Meanwhile it is estimated that 100 - 200 species go extinct every single day with a further 1,000,000 other species on the brink of extinction.
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopme ... ed-report/
Truly, we have wrecked the place... however our host may have a cunning plan up her sleeve :-)
C19, as diseases go, is small beer (so far...). Consider The Black Death - I read that it may have done for over half of the population of Europe, during the outbreak in the mid 17th century!

But most of the world then had no idea how to tackle such a huge problem.
It'll be the ignorant and downright stupid who'll suffer worst from such epidemics and those won't be the people we might think.
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Re: Earths falling population....

Postby simonineaston » 16 Jul 2020, 11:19am

Sars-Cov-2 just one in what will become a stream of pathogens that reach pandemic levels - referred to as "a once in century event" this morning by a cabinet member, by contrast, it will become the norm as the planet gets into its stride, dealing, in its own way, with irritants like us.
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