Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

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Psamathe
Posts: 11952
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Psamathe » 11 Jan 2021, 10:33am

Oldjohnw wrote:The government thinks about 90% are following the guidelines. I assume that the remaining 10% are the ones we see. 10% is, of course, a large number and they tend to find themselves attracted to the same places. Which is no doubt why the pollis focus on certain areas.
.....

Also, this lockdown is laxer than the Spring 20 lockdown so there will be more people around within lockdown rules anyway.

Ian

Stevek76
Posts: 651
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Stevek76 » 11 Jan 2021, 11:01am

Oldjohnw wrote:Something is spreading this damned plague.


Going the on the age brackets breakdown on the government dashboard the bulk of the spread on the run up to christmas was children (in, or perhaps on the way to and from, schools) followed by their parents, a substantial portion (by most estimates a considerably majority even) of whom are likely in jobs that cannot be done from home.

I'm sure the minority of troublemakers were contributing their own fair share, but they are ultimately a minority.

Also on the war thing, I think you've perhaps missed the most significant factor which was the far more obviously visual danger of not following the rules.

It's well established from other matters (eg the persistent acceptance of road deaths vs the extensive coverage of and efforts to avoid a train/plane crash) that humans are rubbish at assessing risks well and will relatively overreact to large, dramatic & infrequent danger but underreact to ongoing less dramatic danger even if the overall chance of harm from those things is equal.

Postboxer
Posts: 1732
Joined: 24 Jul 2013, 5:19pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2ndthe Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Postboxer » 11 Jan 2021, 11:04am

Pebble wrote:
Postboxer wrote:My car is also subject to a recall to replace an airbag that might go off like a bomb, it was booked to go into the garage in March 2019, the week lockdown began, but I thought why take the risk so cancelled it, not knowing it would still not be done. Nissan then arranged for the RAC to fix them on the driveway, but I couldn't get it done because of Manchester's local lockdown, which seemed a bit silly as it was during the summer holidays and my car could have been sat there a week with no-one going near it, so there would be very low risk, compared to during term time when the longest it could be empty is 2 1/2 days.

That is a seriously long time to have your car out of action - have you had to hire during this period ?



It's the passenger side lockdown, so my wife has been avoiding sitting in front of it and I've disabled it, so still been using it, just not much in the current situation. What's annoying is I knew when I bought the car that some Nissans had an airbag issue so double checked the details and it wasn't yet subject to a recall. It's almost as though they only recall them at the same rate they can fix them. Had I known at the time of purchase, I would have got something else or got it done first so I could be sure there were no problems as a result of the work.

Postboxer
Posts: 1732
Joined: 24 Jul 2013, 5:19pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2ndthe Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Postboxer » 11 Jan 2021, 11:11am

Cowsham wrote:
Postboxer wrote:I was thinking earlier what the furthest I've been from home is since March. I haven't been doing much cycling the last 6 months but still think I've been further away from my house by bike than I've been by car. I haven't been out much at all, I was thinking I'd barely been 2 miles from home but thinking about it the furthest I can remember driving is 3.6 miles to go to a school uniform shop back in August. The furthest away I've been from home cycling is about 18 miles.

So we've barely been doing anything, very few journeys to shops, hardly any of them during lockdowns. We haven't visited family or had any days out further afield, as, living in Greater Manchester, every time we were about to start planning days out or visiting family, local lockdown rules or high tiers or various other lockdowns were brought in, giving the impression that we were in a bad area, so we didn't want to travel t another area. The best time we could have visited family was in July, the rates were, compared to now and every time since, very low in Manchester, the kids were off school and my wife had two weeks off work, so the plan was to isolate ourselves as much as possible for as many days as possible, before going to visit family, then the local lockdown rules were announced so we thought we had better not.

My car is also subject to a recall to replace an airbag that might go off like a bomb, it was booked to go into the garage in March 2019, the week lockdown began, but I thought why take the risk so cancelled it, not knowing it would still not be done. Nissan then arranged for the RAC to fix them on the driveway, but I couldn't get it done because of Manchester's local lockdown, which seemed a bit silly as it was during the summer holidays and my car could have been sat there a week with no-one going near it, so there would be very low risk, compared to during term time when the longest it could be empty is 2 1/2 days.


Roughly what age are you?


40 why? Parents are comparatively old as I'm the youngest of 4, parents are 78 and weren't in the best of health before all of this. They live on a farm with my sister next door, the only other house and my brother works on the farm too, so they can see some family and have plenty of empty space to rattle around in. They're in East Yorkshire, near Bridlington, so a 2 hour drive away and an area that had had quite low Covid rates, though they were in tier 3 because rates were high 30 miles away from them in Hull.

Oldjohnw
Posts: 5747
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Oldjohnw » 11 Jan 2021, 11:14am

Ben@Forest wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:Some fairly major differences with WW2.

Regulation was strict and punishment for breaches swift and severe.
People in general were making sacrifices.
They could do little to avoid danger. Today we can do a lot to keep safe.
Today, someone's carelessness affects not just themselves but everyone else they contact.

This is a plague not a war.


Human behaviour doesn't distinguish between the two. And there were many and severe infractions of rules the authorities implemented, and no drop in criminality. And of course now and 'in general' people are making sacrifices and following the rules.

This is interesting:

Perhaps the most shameful episode of the whole Blitz occurred on the evening of March 8 1941 when the Cafe de Paris in Piccadilly was hit by a German bomb. The cafe was one of the most glamorous night spots in London, the venue for off-duty officers to bring their wives and girlfriends, and within minutes of its destruction the looters moved in.

"Some of the looters in the Cafe de Paris cut off the people's fingers to get the rings," recalled Ballard Berkeley, a policeman during the Blitz who later found fame as the 'Major' in Fawlty Towers. Even the wounded in the Cafe de Paris were robbed of their jewellery amid the confusion and carnage.

Then, as now, the newspapers demanded strong action from the government to curb the looting, though not even the most right-wing papers of 2011 went as far as the Daily Mirror did in November 1940.

"Fines and imprisonment have done nothing to stop the ghouls who rob even bodies lying in the ruins of little homes. Looting is in fact on the increase," thundered its editorial. "The country demands that this crime be stamped out... hang a looter and stop this filthy crime."


That doesn't come up much in rose-tinted remembrances of WW2.


You make my point. The comparison (yours) is very limited.
John

fullfathom5
Posts: 106
Joined: 28 Dec 2007, 2:39pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby fullfathom5 » 11 Jan 2021, 2:07pm

I see the government are considering bringing in tighter regulations. I'm not optimistic it will make much of a difference though as the people currently breaking the rules will continue to do so. Two examples (amongst many I can cite):

We had new neighbours last week. The previous guy used to have a friend pick him up in his car so they could go running together. He and the kids also used to go out on a Sunday until late, which was almost certainly to visit his parents for Sunday lunch. What's really depressing is his wife is a nurse.

Our new neighbours had their grown-up son in the house over the weekend and then invited some of their previous neighbours who were walking past (they've not moved far) in to view their garden.

That's the kind of mindset the government needs to target - not people going out twice a day for exercise or driving five miles into the countryside for a walk.

Jdsk
Posts: 5178
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Jdsk » 11 Jan 2021, 2:13pm

And the problems with consistent messages and leadership by example continue, here are the next two:

Screenshot 2021-01-11 at 14.10.59.png


Screenshot 2021-01-11 at 14.12.04.png

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/11/uk-coronavius-covid-news-latest-updates-chris-whitty-boris-johnson-matt-hancock-vaccine-nhs-brexit

Jonathan

Debs
Posts: 850
Joined: 19 May 2017, 7:05pm
Location: Powys

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Debs » 11 Jan 2021, 2:42pm

Went out on my usual 19 mile ride yesterday, on a route that is all countryside. Apart from the usual motor traffic on the B national limit roads, the other more minor roads are very quiet country lanes don't usually see a living soul. Yesterday there were a few walkers out an about, i don't mind this and don't blame people for going out for some fresh air in the solitary countryside. I always say 'Hello' as i pass by.

However, on a part of quiet country lane yesterday i encountered four teenage girls with a dog walking towards me, they were line abreast across the 5 meter wide road, the dog was off-lead but sensibly walking on the grass verge. At 200 metres they had plenty of time to see my approach and give me room to pass, but they didn't, and carried on walking on the road line abreast like a wall of people, this forced me to slow from 15mph down to 5mph and with a too close for comfort passing point.

Thinking about this; they are unlikely to be same family members, or sisters from the same household, the girls all looked to be about 15 years old, so i can only assume they are probably from different households, not social distancing from each other, plus obstructing a normally quiet country lane with intent to cause close passes with other people.

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby mikeymo » 11 Jan 2021, 2:55pm

Jdsk wrote:And the problems with consistent messages and leadership by example continue, here are the next two:

Screenshot 2021-01-11 at 14.10.59.png

Screenshot 2021-01-11 at 14.12.04.png
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/11/uk-coronavius-covid-news-latest-updates-chris-whitty-boris-johnson-matt-hancock-vaccine-nhs-brexit

Jonathan


My response, as the Prime Minister's spokesman:

"We're busy, here in the government. So I haven't got time to tell you what you should do in every possible combination of circumstances you dream up in order to try to make us look bad on television.

The virus is spread by human contact. Do less of that. Take some damn responsibility for stopping the virus, and stop blaming everything on the failures of the government"

Sort of thing.

Bizarrely, for somebody who has never voted Conservative, I welcomed Priti Patel's clear, unambiguous support for the police. So did my also-never-voted-Conservative wife.

Jdsk
Posts: 5178
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Jdsk » 11 Jan 2021, 2:59pm

mikeymo wrote:The virus is spread by human contact. Do less of that.

That isn't the only message on effective NPIs: there's also hand cleaning and face covering.

And it isn't realistic to expect everyone to get from that short form into particular situations and required behaviours. The communications strategy should have illustrated those repeatedly.

Jonathan

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby mikeymo » 11 Jan 2021, 3:00pm

Debs wrote:Went out on my usual 19 mile ride yesterday, on a route that is all countryside. Apart from the usual motor traffic on the B national limit roads, the other more minor roads are very quiet country lanes don't usually see a living soul. Yesterday there were a few walkers out an about, i don't mind this and don't blame people for going out for some fresh air in the solitary countryside. I always say 'Hello' as i pass by.

However, on a part of quiet country lane yesterday i encountered four teenage girls with a dog walking towards me, they were line abreast across the 5 meter wide road, the dog was off-lead but sensibly walking on the grass verge. At 200 metres they had plenty of time to see my approach and give me room to pass, but they didn't, and carried on walking on the road line abreast like a wall of people, this forced me to slow from 15mph down to 5mph and with a too close for comfort passing point.

Thinking about this; they are unlikely to be same family members, or sisters from the same household, the girls all looked to be about 15 years old, so i can only assume they are probably from different households, not social distancing from each other, plus obstructing a normally quiet country lane with intent to cause close passes with other people.


It's a shame the police weren't there to issue them with a fine.

No, I'm not joking.

Jdsk
Posts: 5178
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby Jdsk » 11 Jan 2021, 3:01pm

mikeymo wrote:Take some damn responsibility for stopping the virus, and stop blaming everything on the failures of the government"

How would you explain the enormous differences in death rates between similar countries, please?

Thanks

Jonathan

roubaixtuesday
Posts: 3510
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby roubaixtuesday » 11 Jan 2021, 3:01pm

Debs wrote:Went out on my usual 19 mile ride yesterday, on a route that is all countryside. Apart from the usual motor traffic on the B national limit roads, the other more minor roads are very quiet country lanes don't usually see a living soul. Yesterday there were a few walkers out an about, i don't mind this and don't blame people for going out for some fresh air in the solitary countryside. I always say 'Hello' as i pass by.

However, on a part of quiet country lane yesterday i encountered four teenage girls with a dog walking towards me, they were line abreast across the 5 meter wide road, the dog was off-lead but sensibly walking on the grass verge. At 200 metres they had plenty of time to see my approach and give me room to pass, but they didn't, and carried on walking on the road line abreast like a wall of people, this forced me to slow from 15mph down to 5mph and with a too close for comfort passing point.

Thinking about this; they are unlikely to be same family members, or sisters from the same household, the girls all looked to be about 15 years old, so i can only assume they are probably from different households, not social distancing from each other, plus obstructing a normally quiet country lane with intent to cause close passes with other people.


If you think about what teenagers would normally be spending their time doing, that they are outside walking together is probably a good, rather than bad thing. Risks of outdoor transmission are very low. Be pleased they're not engaged in more customary 15YO activities inside...

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby mikeymo » 11 Jan 2021, 3:03pm

Jdsk wrote:
mikeymo wrote:The virus is spread by human contact. Do less of that.

That isn't the only message on effective NPIs: there's also hand cleaning and face covering.

And it isn't realistic to expect everyone to get from that short form into particular situations and required behaviours. The communications strategy should have illustrated those repeatedly.

Jonathan


Oh for Pete's sake. You knew perfectly well what I meant.

Ok then, you want a simple message?

How about "Hands, face, space".

Three ruddy words, that encapsulate the main ways of slowing down transmission. In what way is that message, repeated over and over again, by the Prime Minister, unclear?

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Re: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021

Postby mikeymo » 11 Jan 2021, 3:04pm

Jdsk wrote:
mikeymo wrote:Take some damn responsibility for stopping the virus, and stop blaming everything on the failures of the government"

How would you explain the enormous differences in death rates between similar countries, please?

Thanks

Jonathan


I don't know. You explain it.