What does that mean, please? Have you seen the CMO's advice?
Thanks
Jonathan
The CMO's advice is not being published, which has been the case for much of this outbreak. You haven't seen it. You're "preferring" something you haven't seen.
As do many others.
As above, there's a lot of uncertainty in the predictions.
al_yrpal wrote: ↑13 Jul 2021, 5:30pm No, he wasnt parroting the government line, he said that at whatever point restrictions were lifted it would make practically no difference to outcomes predicted by the computer modelling. That wasnt a political statement, it was, unlike your politically biased stuff, based on science.
Compare your understanding based on what you have read and listened to from the Government, with the extract below from the minutes of the last SAGE meeting on the 7th of July:
The chart I posted above was from some of the modelling that underpinned the statements in those minutes. Currently 6%-12% of people admitted to hospital with Covid die. That chart indicates that the outcomes could differ by several thousand deaths.14. Delaying step 4 by four weeks from 21st June has allowed many more vaccinations to be administered and moved the end of restrictions to a time point close to the school holidays, when transmission is expected to be lower. Although a further delay to step 4 could have some additional positive impact by allowing more people to be vaccinated, the effect of this would be much smaller than the effect of the current delay and it would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter.
15. The peak of the resurgence will however be much lower if the return to pre-pandemic behaviours is gradual, irrespective of legislative decisions (i.e. any changes happen over several months) than if it is rapid, and if more measures to reduce transmission are maintained (high confidence). If the aim is to prevent the NHS being under pressure the priority should be to avoid a very rapid return to pre-pandemic behaviour which could lead to a peak in hospitalisations similar to (or possibly even higher than) previous peaks. The mechanism by which this gradual change to more mixing is achieved is much less important than the fact it is gradual.
16. Maintaining interventions such as more people working from home, the use of masks in crowded indoor spaces, and increasing ventilation, would contribute to transmission reduction and therefore reduce the number of hospitalisations (high confidence). SAGE has previously advised on the effectiveness of different interventions (SAGE 87).
17. Isolation of people likely to be infectious remains particularly important for reducing transmission (high confidence). Further evidence on the effectiveness of daily testing as an alternative to isolation for contacts of known cases is expected withinthe next month and will be important for informing futureapproaches. Effective test and trace remains an important part of preventing spread.
18. As restrictions are lifted it will be important for messaging to communicate the continued risks from COVID-19 and effective mitigations, including information on how to minimise within household spread. SAGE advises that continuing to provide
near real time local information on prevalence would be helpful. Communication targeted to both individuals and organisations will be important.
I wouldn't go as far as "united" on "mandatory", but certainly a crucial intervention that many experts, including SAGE as above, would like to see consistently and repeatedly emphasised. This seems to be the case regardless of their furniture. And it appears in the advice from many professional bodies.Oldjohnw wrote: ↑13 Jul 2021, 6:19pm My simple understanding is that there are genuine alternative views about actually opening up, whatever that means, but in the matter of protective measures (face masks, distancing, indoor gatherings with limited ventilation etc) medical opinion is united in the view that these should be mandatory
Thanks. Clarity would, of course, be a good start.Jdsk wrote: ↑13 Jul 2021, 6:55pmI wouldn't go as far as "united" on "mandatory", but certainly a crucial intervention that many experts, including SAGE as above, would like to see consistently and repeatedly emphasised. This seems to be the case regardless of their furniture. And it appears in the advice from many professional bodies.Oldjohnw wrote: ↑13 Jul 2021, 6:19pm My simple understanding is that there are genuine alternative views about actually opening up, whatever that means, but in the matter of protective measures (face masks, distancing, indoor gatherings with limited ventilation etc) medical opinion is united in the view that these should be mandatory
And an excellent example of where it would be helpful to see the CMO's advice to government.
Jonathan
Boris wants to be president, simply put, ruling by decree like Biden, Macron, Putin and others he sees as his peers. He has no respect for our Parliament-led democracy, as seen time and time again with attempted Henry VIII powers, proroguing, policy announcements in his glam US-style press conference set instead of the House of Commons, and so on.
Except its part of a pattern. I find it differently to give him the benefit of the doubt.thirdcrank wrote: ↑14 Jul 2021, 9:37am I'm no fan of Boris Johnson but I don't think he's setting a precedent here. It normally takes a long time to get a Bill through all its Parliamentary stages but it can be rushed through much more quickly. He has the majority to do that if he's pushed and if it became a matter of "confidence" then the great majority of the rebels would fall back into line.