Boris's Brain is missing

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Jdsk
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Jdsk »

al_yrpal wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 4:50pm
Jdsk wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 3:47pm
al_yrpal wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 3:37pm I dont believe it is Boris's idea and I would prefer the Chief Medical Officers advice to legions of ameteur armchair experts.
Do you have a source for that advice from the CMO, please? Then we could all have a look.
Be my guest As a top academic armchair expert I am sure you know where to Google.
What does that mean, please? Have you seen the CMO's advice?

Thanks

Jonathan
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al_yrpal
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by al_yrpal »

You are relentless. The government is getting that advice as was clear when the CMO last spoke alongside the PM. I listened to what he said and so can you. Be my guest...

Al
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Oldjohnw
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Oldjohnw »

We know what the BMA and the WHO say. They say keep masks and distancing. Boris Johnson says keep them but don’t keep them.
John
Jdsk
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Jdsk »

al_yrpal wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 3:37pm I dont believe it is Boris's idea and I would prefer the Chief Medical Officers advice to legions of ameteur armchair experts.
The CMO's advice is not being published, which has been the case for much of this outbreak. You haven't seen it. You're "preferring" something you haven't seen.

What you have seen is the announcement of the political decisions that have been made. The CMO and CSO have also made presentations after those decisions. That's very different from seeing the advice that they have given before the political decisions were made.

You may well "prefer" those political decisions to some others.

We're very lucky to have experts who can discuss the science openly.

Jonathan
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al_yrpal
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by al_yrpal »

No, he wasnt parroting the government line, he said that at whatever point restrictions were lifted it would make practically no difference to outcomes predicted by the computer modelling. That wasnt a political statement, it was, unlike your politically biased stuff, based on science.

Al
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Jdsk
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Jdsk »

Oldjohnw wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 5:16pm We know what the BMA and the WHO say. They say keep masks and distancing.
As do many others.

Academy of Medical Royal Colleges:
https://www.aomrc.org.uk/wp-content/upl ... 9_0721.pdf
"The Academy of Medical Royal Colleges and its member organisations would ask the public to continue to show caution in their approach. As medical leaders have repeatedly said, it really is sensible for the protection of other people to continue to wear face masks in crowded indoor spaces."

There's a lot of debate and uncertainty about relaxation of restrictions, this isn't restricted to conspiracy theorists and deniers. But not so much about the wisdom of continued nonpharmaceutical interventions, especially in settings with higher risks.

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Jdsk »

al_yrpal wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 5:30pm No, he wasnt parroting the government line, he said that at whatever point restrictions were lifted it would make practically no difference to outcomes predicted by the computer modelling.
As above, there's a lot of uncertainty in the predictions.

But not about the wisdom of continued NPIs. Clear consistent messages about this at national level could make an enormous difference. But we're not getting them.

Jonathan
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by slowster »

al_yrpal wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 5:30pm No, he wasnt parroting the government line, he said that at whatever point restrictions were lifted it would make practically no difference to outcomes predicted by the computer modelling. That wasnt a political statement, it was, unlike your politically biased stuff, based on science.
al_yrpal wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 1:15pm From what I heard from the 'experts' at Boris's side it doesnt matter when things are relaxed the results as far as infections, hospitalisation and deaths are concerned the results will be much the same.
Compare your understanding based on what you have read and listened to from the Government, with the extract below from the minutes of the last SAGE meeting on the 7th of July:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... y_2021.pdf
14. Delaying step 4 by four weeks from 21st June has allowed many more vaccinations to be administered and moved the end of restrictions to a time point close to the school holidays, when transmission is expected to be lower. Although a further delay to step 4 could have some additional positive impact by allowing more people to be vaccinated, the effect of this would be much smaller than the effect of the current delay and it would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter.

15. The peak of the resurgence will however be much lower if the return to pre-pandemic behaviours is gradual, irrespective of legislative decisions (i.e. any changes happen over several months) than if it is rapid, and if more measures to reduce transmission are maintained (high confidence). If the aim is to prevent the NHS being under pressure the priority should be to avoid a very rapid return to pre-pandemic behaviour which could lead to a peak in hospitalisations similar to (or possibly even higher than) previous peaks. The mechanism by which this gradual change to more mixing is achieved is much less important than the fact it is gradual.

16. Maintaining interventions such as more people working from home, the use of masks in crowded indoor spaces, and increasing ventilation, would contribute to transmission reduction and therefore reduce the number of hospitalisations (high confidence). SAGE has previously advised on the effectiveness of different interventions (SAGE 87).

17. Isolation of people likely to be infectious remains particularly important for reducing transmission (high confidence). Further evidence on the effectiveness of daily testing as an alternative to isolation for contacts of known cases is expected withinthe next month and will be important for informing futureapproaches. Effective test and trace remains an important part of preventing spread.

18. As restrictions are lifted it will be important for messaging to communicate the continued risks from COVID-19 and effective mitigations, including information on how to minimise within household spread. SAGE advises that continuing to provide
near real time local information on prevalence would be helpful. Communication targeted to both individuals and organisations will be important.
The chart I posted above was from some of the modelling that underpinned the statements in those minutes. Currently 6%-12% of people admitted to hospital with Covid die. That chart indicates that the outcomes could differ by several thousand deaths.
Oldjohnw
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

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My simple understanding is that there are genuine alternative views about actually opening up, whatever that means, but in the matter of protective measures (face masks, distancing, indoor gatherings with limited ventilation etc) medical opinion is united in the view that these should be mandatory. It appears that only our government disagrees plus Brazil and Trumpists.

This is the line announced by Scotland today.
John
Jdsk
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Jdsk »

Oldjohnw wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 6:19pm My simple understanding is that there are genuine alternative views about actually opening up, whatever that means, but in the matter of protective measures (face masks, distancing, indoor gatherings with limited ventilation etc) medical opinion is united in the view that these should be mandatory
I wouldn't go as far as "united" on "mandatory", but certainly a crucial intervention that many experts, including SAGE as above, would like to see consistently and repeatedly emphasised. This seems to be the case regardless of their furniture. And it appears in the advice from many professional bodies.

And an excellent example of where it would be helpful to see the CMO's advice to government.

Jonathan
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Oldjohnw »

Jdsk wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 6:55pm
Oldjohnw wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 6:19pm My simple understanding is that there are genuine alternative views about actually opening up, whatever that means, but in the matter of protective measures (face masks, distancing, indoor gatherings with limited ventilation etc) medical opinion is united in the view that these should be mandatory
I wouldn't go as far as "united" on "mandatory", but certainly a crucial intervention that many experts, including SAGE as above, would like to see consistently and repeatedly emphasised. This seems to be the case regardless of their furniture. And it appears in the advice from many professional bodies.

And an excellent example of where it would be helpful to see the CMO's advice to government.

Jonathan
Thanks. Clarity would, of course, be a good start.
John
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Oldjohnw »

An interested thing happened in Parliament today.

It is enshrined in law that 0.7% of GDP should be used in foreign aid.

Today that law was not actually changed, which, whilst objectionable, would have been legitimate.

Rather, parliament simple decided by a majority vote that it would not follow that law. So now we have an Executive which makes law. The reasoning is that so it can revert to 0.7% when the time is right, although the criteria set for this is unlikely to be reached in my lifetime.

I’m not being categoric about this: I am not a constitutional or any kind of lawyer. I am feeling my way with this. But there does seem to be something odd going on.

The government did finally kill off the idea that we can’t help out foreigners because charity begins at home. Because they have shown time after time that it doesn’t. Cutting benefit, denying school meals etc.

This post was amended for clarity.
John
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by mjr »

Oldjohnw wrote: 13 Jul 2021, 11:44pm Rather, parliament simple decided by a majority vote that it would not follow that law. So now we have an Executive which makes law.
Boris wants to be president, simply put, ruling by decree like Biden, Macron, Putin and others he sees as his peers. He has no respect for our Parliament-led democracy, as seen time and time again with attempted Henry VIII powers, proroguing, policy announcements in his glam US-style press conference set instead of the House of Commons, and so on.

He will probably not get away with this, but it will take years for the wheels of justice to grind him down.
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thirdcrank
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by thirdcrank »

I'm no fan of Boris Johnson but I don't think he's setting a precedent here. It normally takes a long time to get a Bill through all its Parliamentary stages but it can be rushed through much more quickly. He has the majority to do that if he's pushed and if it became a matter of "confidence" then the great majority of the rebels would fall back into line.
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Re: Boris's Brain is missing

Post by Oldjohnw »

thirdcrank wrote: 14 Jul 2021, 9:37am I'm no fan of Boris Johnson but I don't think he's setting a precedent here. It normally takes a long time to get a Bill through all its Parliamentary stages but it can be rushed through much more quickly. He has the majority to do that if he's pushed and if it became a matter of "confidence" then the great majority of the rebels would fall back into line.
Except its part of a pattern. I find it differently to give him the benefit of the doubt.
John
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