Who's had the vaccine?

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rmurphy195
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby rmurphy195 » 24 Dec 2020, 11:24pm

661-Pete wrote:Being in the 70-75 group, Mrs P and I will be getting our shots some time in February, I understand. We're happy to wait: in Tier 4 lockdown it makes little difference anyway.

I just had a call from the chairman of the bridge club I used to go to pre-Covid (when will we ever be able to play face-to-face again? :| ). He tells me that all the over-80s in the club (of which there are a fair number) have had their first shots, and all are doing well. So that's good news.

Meanwhile, we're a little bit concerned about our next-door neighbour, who hasn't been offered the jab. She'll be turning 105 next week. She's in good health and jolly sprightly for her age - my wife had a chat (at social distance) the other day - although fed up with being virtually housebound. I wonder if, for people of that age, the jab is considered too risky? If anyone can explain, I'd appreciate it.


Not sure what they are using as the platform for sending out invites - probably medical registrations. Whatever it is, perhaps a call to her GP is in order. Although if she isn't registered anywhare that might explain it.
Brompton, Condor Heritage, creaky joints and thinning white (formerly grey) hair
""You know you're getting old when it's easier to ride a bike than to get on and off it" - quote from observant jogger !

Cowsham
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Cowsham » 25 Dec 2020, 12:33am

rmurphy195 wrote:
661-Pete wrote:Being in the 70-75 group, Mrs P and I will be getting our shots some time in February, I understand. We're happy to wait: in Tier 4 lockdown it makes little difference anyway.

I just had a call from the chairman of the bridge club I used to go to pre-Covid (when will we ever be able to play face-to-face again? :| ). He tells me that all the over-80s in the club (of which there are a fair number) have had their first shots, and all are doing well. So that's good news.

Meanwhile, we're a little bit concerned about our next-door neighbour, who hasn't been offered the jab. She'll be turning 105 next week. She's in good health and jolly sprightly for her age - my wife had a chat (at social distance) the other day - although fed up with being virtually housebound. I wonder if, for people of that age, the jab is considered too risky? If anyone can explain, I'd appreciate it.


Not sure what they are using as the platform for sending out invites - probably medical registrations. Whatever it is, perhaps a call to her GP is in order. Although if she isn't registered anywhare that might explain it.


She may not even be on the system. She may have been so healthy all her life she probably hasn't been to a doctor in many years, most records of her may have vanished when the system was computerized and if they have looked at her records they may have thought she'd be long gone by now.

I had a similar experience last year -- I was Tesco when I recognized a aged woman, thin tall and straight but couldn't think where I'd seen her before.

As I left and was driving down the road it came to me -- "ah it's my wife's old boss Maude ----- but wait a minuit -- Maude would be over 100 years old by now cos she was in her 70's when my wife worked to her in the late 80's "

so dismissed it as someone who looked like her or how I remember her in her 70's

A few weeks later I was taking to a friend who told me his aunt was married to the old girls younger brother who'd passed away 15 years ago. I remembered the Tesco woman and said " this is going to sound silly but is Maude still alive by any chance ? "

The reply wasn't what I was expecting " she's 102 alive and well -- does all her own shopping -- has the latest smart phone, laptop and gadgets, sharp as a pin and could still buy and sell you ! "

I was in shock for a minuit. I asked what her secret was cos she looks just the same! ( kind of expecting her vampire servants bring her elves blood or something ) -- plenty of sleep -- makes sure gets 8 hours every night.

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simonineaston
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby simonineaston » 25 Dec 2020, 12:37pm

Well, I've done my daily round of the usual sources, John Campbell being amongst them, and it looks like it boils down to a race between the new variants and the national endevour to vaccinate us all (I'm in block 5 and obviously can't wait!). The full data re the Oxford jobbie has been submitted to the MHRA y'day with hope of approval as soon as can be managed. This is jolly good news 'cos it's easier to deal with than the Pfizer jobbie and way cheaper too. We've already bought 100 million doses, apparently.
The arrival of more-than-one new variants, at the peak of the winter virus season, will almost certainly mean that infection rates here in the UK are set to sky-rocket. The infection rates are to all intents and purposes, now out of control. The good news, if you can call it that, is that the new variants do not appear to result in a more severe disease. Who knows what difference the arrival of warmer weather will make - looking back at last year, when peaks were seen in spring and autumn, I imagine that answer is not much.
I can't see how it will be possible to bridge the gap between now and the start of the effects of mass vaccination, without another total lockdown and the closure again of schools & colleges. As it is, hospitals will certainly be absolutely swamped. We are in a very bad place, until the effects of the vaccines kick in. We will have to cross everything to hope that variants do not emerge that render the vaccines less effective. Then we'll really be in the doo-doo!
(rides: Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)

Jdsk
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Jdsk » 25 Dec 2020, 12:41pm

simonineaston wrote:... and it looks like it boils down to a race between the new variants and the national endevour to vaccinate us all ...

Is someone suggesting that the existing vaccines won't be effective against the currently known new variants?

Thanks

Happy Christmas

Jonathan

Psamathe
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Psamathe » 25 Dec 2020, 12:52pm

One aspect to vaccine type and approval with the emergence of the new strain is the need for more people to become immune to start getting herd immunity. They are (currently) estimating that the new strain increases the R-number by as much as 0.4. So you'll need more people to become immune which means more people being vaccinates and the effectiveness of the vaccine becomes more relevant.

Previous estimates for achieving herd immunity for C-19 were 60%-70% of the population immune. So with a vaccine effective mid-60% and relatively few with infection achieved immunity you need widespread uptake of vaccination. But with a more virulent virus (the UK's mutant ninja Covid) I wonder if a mid-60% effective vaccine would be enough even with very widespread uptake of vaccine.

I'm talking about only the Oxford vaccine with the mid-60% and appreciate that Pfizer and moderna are a lot higher. But UK purchases looks like we'll be pretty dependent on the Oxford vaccine for widespread roll-out. I'm assuming that vaccines are equally effective against all strains of the virus (not seen anything to suggest otherwise).

Ian

Jdsk
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Jdsk » 25 Dec 2020, 12:57pm

Ah... that "race" is because of higher rates of transmission rather than lower efficacy of the existing vaccines?

That sounds right to me.

Jonathan

Phileas
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Phileas » 25 Dec 2020, 1:08pm

I think it’s important to distinguish between suppressing disease and preventing transmission. We don’t yet know how effective any vaccine is in reducing transmission.

The other thing is the meaning of 60% effective. I don’t think anyone vaccinated in the Oxford/Astra trial (in the published results) got seriously ill or was hospitalised.

Psamathe
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Psamathe » 25 Dec 2020, 1:31pm

Jdsk wrote:Ah... that "race" is because of higher rates of transmission rather than lower efficacy of the existing vaccines?

That sounds right to me.

Jonathan

I think it's a balance to get the levels of immunity across the population. More virulent disease means you need a higher %age of the population immune. If for a given disease you need 70% of the population immune and your vaccination is only 60% effective (i.e. only imparts immunity in 60% of people), then even if everybody was vaccinated you'd still only get to 60% immunity but you need 70%.

With regard to C-19, US scientists/experts are gradually increasing their estimate of immunity levels needed to achieve herd immunity. Originally it was estimated at 60%-70%, then it was 70-75% now they are talking 75%-80+%. And with a mid-60% effective vaccine (if that is what the Oxford vaccine final analysis shows) then we still "have a problem" even if everybody gets vaccinated.

Of course that is a rather over simplistic black vs white description as if you are vaccinated it's not a immune vs not-immune outcome but more a level and longevity of response and how well or quickly you might fight any given level of virus load.

Ian

Psamathe
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Psamathe » 25 Dec 2020, 1:49pm

Phileas wrote:I think it’s important to distinguish between suppressing disease and preventing transmission. We don’t yet know how effective any vaccine is in reducing transmission.

I agree but demonstrating ability to spread must be quite difficult (particularly where tests are showing no infection). I guess we have to make some logical assumptions and maybe assume that if a test shows no infection (proper test rather than just asymptomatic), then we assume you don't have and are not spreading virus. Early results from the Moderna trial suggests that it also reduced asymptomatic cases.

Phileas wrote:The other thing is the meaning of 60% effective. I don’t think anyone vaccinated in the Oxford/Astra trial (in the published results) got seriously ill or was hospitalised.

I agree, not black and white but discussions would become horrendously complex when you start to set immunity levels for herd immunity in relation to level of dose of virus, levels of immunity, longevity of immunity, etc. Then add in the surprising number of people (including healthy younger people) who are suffering long-Covid, even without hospitalisation level disease.

Ian

Phileas
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Phileas » 25 Dec 2020, 2:15pm

@Psamathe

The point I was trying to make is, if the vaccine is sufficiently protective, herd immunity is less important. We don’t have that for flu.

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simonineaston
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby simonineaston » 25 Dec 2020, 5:17pm

Oooh - check this out :-) Not a vaccine but...
Is someone suggesting that the existing vaccines won't be effective against the currently known new variants?
Nope - I was just thinking of what-could-happen-but-probably-won't, but heck you know what mutatations are like - they're so - what's the word.... random!
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Jdsk
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Jdsk » 25 Dec 2020, 5:35pm

Thanks

Jonathan

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simonineaston
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby simonineaston » 26 Dec 2020, 12:58pm

We will have to cross everything to hope that variants do not emerge that render the vaccines less effective. Then we'll really be in the doo-doo!
I now read two relevant ideas - i) that it's a question of when, not if *, that the coronvirus we're currently dealing with will mutuate such that it becomes resistant to any given vaccine and ii) RNA-type vaccines can be readily tweaked to deal with such devlopments. Hmmm... I also read that a growing population of vaccinated individuals is itself, a driver of virus mutation! On the whole, I'm rather glad I gave up working in medicine and took instead to other less complicated persuits!!
* see here
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Jdsk
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby Jdsk » 26 Dec 2020, 1:06pm

simonineaston wrote:I now read two relevant ideas - i) that it's a question of when, not if *, that the coronvirus we're currently dealing with will mutuate such that it becomes resistant to any given vaccine

It might do, it might not. "When, not if" isn't a falsifiable proposition... if it hasn't happened you can always say "Ah, not yet... ".

simonineaston wrote:... and ii) RNA-type vaccines can be readily tweaked to deal with such devlopments.

That's probably true. And it also applies to engineered vaccines in the two other classes of interest: DNA-based and the Oxford type of viral-vectored. And the production, testing and authorisation of each new version could be quicker than the first, and that was stunningly fast.

Jonathan

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horizon
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Re: Who's had the vaccine?

Postby horizon » 26 Dec 2020, 1:30pm

Jdsk wrote: And it also applies to engineered vaccines in the two other classes of interest: DNA-based and the Oxford type of viral-vectored. And the production, testing and authorisation of each new version could be quicker than the first, and that was stunningly fast.

Jonathan


Would that also mean vaccinating again those people who had already had the first vaccine? Or would their vaccine cover the newer ones?
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher