Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.

Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
26
67%
No
13
33%
 
Total votes: 39

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Scotland - do you predict that it will be independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Postby mikeymo » 2 Jan 2021, 2:21pm

Polls are quite the rage here, so I thought I'd start one. But you've only got two choices.

EDIT for clarity: Do you think Scotland will be an independent nation within the next 10 years? (regardless of whether you are in favour or not). END EDIT.

Sometimes in world affairs "events, dear boy" have a way of producing unintended effects. The Eric Joyce punching Tories brawl effect, for instance.

David Cameron promised an EU referendum because he was worried about UKIP/Tory Eurosceptics. David Cameron didn't think he'd win the 2015 election (naive, or what?) and that he'd be in another coalition with the Lib Dems and the Lib Dems wouldn't allow the referendum. But he did win. So he had to have a referendum. Which returned a Leave result. Et Cetera.

Fast forward to 2024. Labour, used to relying upon 40 odd MPs coming from Scotland to win a General Election, is desperate to get some of them back. So promises a referendum on Scottish independence. Against the odds, Labour wins the general election. And is now obliged to give the Scots a referendum on independence, despite the fact that most Labour MPs, including any Scots ones, are against independence. Does any of this sound familiar?

The Scots vote for independence. Cue a few years of wrangling. But eventually they get there, partly due in no small part to the fact that a lot of English people are so fed up with the whole thing that they are now saying "let's get on with it, just give them their blasted independence". There could well be another election with one or another party using the slogan "Get Scexit Done!" Does that sound familiar?

I'm voting yes. EDIT. I think Scotland will be an independent nation within the next 10 years.

I was born on the banks of Loch Lomond, and there's a croft in the Outer Hebrides I'm sure I can lay claim to, somehow or other. And I've got my father's kilt in the wardrobe. So I'll be OK.
Last edited by mikeymo on 2 Jan 2021, 9:12pm, edited 2 times in total.

thirdcrank
Posts: 30544
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby thirdcrank » 2 Jan 2021, 2:38pm

... fact that a lot of English people are so fed up with the whole thing ...


I have my doubts about that for two reasons

In spite of the efforts of SNP politicians I don't think the typical English voter is bothered about Scotland: if they were they wouldn't stand for the disparity in public spending. Indeed, now that hydrocarbons have lost a lot of their importance globally, with all the talk of levelling up which implies spending more on the North of England, that disparity might receive more attention.

Then, AIUI, part of the rationale of some Irish nationalists was that the English would get fed up yet that never looked like happening.

PH
Posts: 9786
Joined: 21 Jan 2007, 12:31am
Location: Derby
Contact:

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby PH » 2 Jan 2021, 2:53pm

mikeymo wrote:Fast forward to 2024. Labour, used to relying upon 40 odd MPs coming from Scotland to win a General Election, is desperate to get some of them back.

Just a little fact check on that - The elections of 1997, 2001 and 2005 would all have resulted in Labour victories with sizeable majorities without the Scottish MP's.
That's not to say that they're not desperate to get them back, or that a future Labour Government is less likely without them (Particularly with the boundary changes) but it's inaccurate to say they've been relying on them.

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby mikeymo » 2 Jan 2021, 2:55pm

PH wrote:
mikeymo wrote:Fast forward to 2024. Labour, used to relying upon 40 odd MPs coming from Scotland to win a General Election, is desperate to get some of them back.

Just a little fact check on that - The elections of 1997, 2001 and 2005 would all have resulted in Labour victories with sizeable majorities without the Scottish MP's.
That's not to say that they're not desperate to get them back, or that a future Labour Government is less likely without them (Particularly with the boundary changes) but it's inaccurate to say they've been relying on them.


I apologise for the inaccuracy, I was wrong. Thank you for the correction.

reohn2
Posts: 40673
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby reohn2 » 2 Jan 2021, 3:00pm

I've not heard anyone say "let the Scots have their independence"
-----------------------------------------------------------

mikeymo
Posts: 1885
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 6:23pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby mikeymo » 2 Jan 2021, 3:01pm

thirdcrank wrote:
... fact that a lot of English people are so fed up with the whole thing ...


I have my doubts about that for two reasons

In spite of the efforts of SNP politicians I don't think the typical English voter is bothered about Scotland: if they were they wouldn't stand for the disparity in public spending. Indeed, now that hydrocarbons have lost a lot of their importance globally, with all the talk of levelling up which implies spending more on the North of England, that disparity might receive more attention.

Then, AIUI, part of the rationale of some Irish nationalists was that the English would get fed up yet that never looked like happening.


Perhaps. But "I don't think the typical English voter is bothered about Scotland" could very easily be changed to:

"I don't think the typical English voter is bothered about the EU".

A relentless drip drip of "bent banana" nonsense, and then a post referendum constitutional lock-up meant that "Get Brexit Done" became a brilliant, and winning, campaign slogan.

I've suggested a comparable situation. The typical English voter might not be bothered about Scotland now, but after a referendum and a few years of argument, they might very well be.

PH
Posts: 9786
Joined: 21 Jan 2007, 12:31am
Location: Derby
Contact:

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby PH » 2 Jan 2021, 3:05pm

mikeymo wrote:[ Thank you for the correction.

You're welcome.
I haven't voted in your poll, because I'm struggling to predict what'll happen in the next ten months, ten years is beyond me, maybe the rest of the UK will have voted to join Scotland.

pwa
Posts: 13667
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby pwa » 2 Jan 2021, 3:09pm

I'm English by birth, now living in Wales and feeling a bit Welsh, and I honestly could not care less whether Scotland stays or goes. Good luck to them, whatever they do. I hope it works out well. If this comes to dominate the news at any point, I expect I will quickly lose interest and switch off.

Wales is unlikely to go that way. I don't hear any clamour for independence here.

(Not voted because I don't know the answer and don't think it is any of my business anyway)

reohn2
Posts: 40673
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby reohn2 » 2 Jan 2021, 3:24pm

PH wrote: .........I'm struggling to predict what'll happen in the next ten months, ten years is beyond me, maybe the rest of the UK will have voted to join Scotland.

I'm struggling with the next ten days with the present dizzy U turners inc loonies currently,laughingly termed as,running the country :?
-----------------------------------------------------------

Tangled Metal
Posts: 7604
Joined: 13 Feb 2015, 8:32pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby Tangled Metal » 2 Jan 2021, 3:29pm

I think the English are more fed up with Scottish nationalism as in the SNP version of it than fed up with Scotland. My personal view is that I would not be bothered if Scotland voted for independence I just don't feel happy leaving the Scottish to the SNP. Scotland IMHO can survive in its own just not do very well under the SNP.

However I do think that if there is another referendum without a vote for independence then that's it for a long time. Also, if that happens then the Union needs a lot of soul searching to work out a new existence with the nations together. IMHO we're talking a federal system where each nation gets equal rights and powers. The discrepancy we have is without doubt uneven and unbalanced. I'm sure our Scottish posters will disagree and make comments about English not voting for devolution when offered. Reference to regional devolution. That's not national devolution so IMHO isn't the same. Does anyone know how big the Scottish economy is compared to say the London economy of the area under the control of the London mayor?

Not voted because SNP are loose cannons who might go ahead without legal backing. You can't predict what they'll do I reckon. I hope not but haven't a clue either way.

thirdcrank
Posts: 30544
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby thirdcrank » 2 Jan 2021, 3:36pm

There was an item on the UK page of the BBC News within the last couple of days. I've had to check my "facts but I can confirm it said

Robinson resigns as Motherwell manager.


Hold the front page -of the Lanark Gazette (yes - I looked that up as well.)

Ben@Forest
Posts: 2710
Joined: 28 Jan 2013, 5:58pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby Ben@Forest » 2 Jan 2021, 3:57pm

If the Scots want independence they should have it. But even the SNP are somewhat flakey as to what independence is, especially since their current plan is to continue using the £, a currency they will not have control of; the EU do not see this as compliant with being in the EU or then getting into the Euro. If you've got 28 minutes to spare this outlines the issues:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc ... O9TwipHz1I

reohn2
Posts: 40673
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby reohn2 » 2 Jan 2021, 4:00pm

thirdcrank wrote:There was an item on the UK page of the BBC News within the last couple of days. I've had to check my "facts but I can confirm it said

Robinson resigns as Motherwell manager.


Hold the front page -of the Lanark Gazette (yes - I looked that up as well.)


I never was keen on that Anne Robinson woman,so it doesn't surprise me in the least! :?
-----------------------------------------------------------

User avatar
Paulatic
Posts: 5655
Joined: 2 Feb 2014, 1:03pm
Location: 24 Hours from Lands End

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby Paulatic » 2 Jan 2021, 4:04pm

Tangled Metal wrote:I think the English are more fed up with Scottish nationalism as in the SNP version of it than fed up with Scotland.

I think a lot English are informed from pro union papers and TV.
Tangled Metal wrote:My personal view is that I would not be bothered if Scotland voted for independence
That’s a good view to have because it really is down to people living in Scotland.
Tangled Metal wrote: I just don't feel happy leaving the Scottish to the SNP. Scotland IMHO can survive in its own just not do very well under the SNP.
. :lol: Backs up my first comment as they never point out an Independent Scotland will have a democratically elected government and that could easily be Labour heavy if Labour make friends with the Scots again. SNP are popular now because they are a route to Independence. Apart from Greens other parties are agin it.
Tangled Metal wrote:However I do think that if there is another referendum without a vote for independence then that's it for a long time

I think that could well be the case. The current unrest is due to the lies delivered from the remain camp. Remember vote remain to stay in EU, remember Gordon Brown’s last minute plea and promise of a devo max. Perhaps the Scots aren’t as tolerant of lies as Englanders currently appear to be.
If the UK gov announced they were abolishing First past the Post this year I’d be left in a real quandary As it is I’ve wanted a PR system for forty years. I will get the chance to vote for an Independent country with a much fairer system of representation and that is why my vote will be Yes.
Whatever I am, wherever I am, this is me. This is my life

https://stcleve.wordpress.com/category/lejog/
E2E info

Psamathe
Posts: 11982
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Postby Psamathe » 2 Jan 2021, 4:08pm

Is the question

    Do you think Scotland will become an independent nation?
Or
    Do you want Scotland to be an independent nation?

For we the answers are different (given I'm not Scottish nor do I live in Scotland).

Ian