Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

Jdsk wrote: 6 May 2021, 9:08am
Tangled Metal wrote: 5 May 2021, 11:37pmPerhaps the EU should stop having the Union part in their name now the UK has left?
Why would one of twenty-eight Member States leaving make it any less a union than it was before?

Jonathan
That was my point about the UK. Number of nations in a union is irrelevant it's the fact there is a union of more than one nation. Whether eu or UK it makes no difference to the name when one leaves but there's still at least 2 left.

And phones deciding that I meant plural when I didn't is hardly worth posting about imho. But then political threads do bring out the most pointless of forensic examination of each word used at times.
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

If find it quite ironic reading and hearing Johnson's continually repeated "it would be irresponsible ..." e.g.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/08/scottish-independence-referendum-boris-johnson-pushes-back-against-indyref2 wrote:Boris Johnson has said it would be “irresponsible and reckless” to hold a second independence referendum ...
Personally on the scale of "irresponsibility" I think the needless death toll from dithering and delays over public health measures is somewhat more "irresponsible", discharging infected patients from hospital back into care homes to spread their infection is pretty irresponsible, etc.

So Johnson thinks giving the electorate a democratic say they have shown support for is "irresponsible" yet causing such needless death ... well he survived.

Ian
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
al_yrpal wrote: 29 Apr 2021, 12:10pm Mickey Mouse hasnt signed it? :D Seriously, if Scots want it they should have it!

Al
Just remember to add their own currency to that too!
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Pebble
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Pebble »

50.8% of the constituency vote went to unionist supporting parties - so Nicola has no mandate for indyref2
the greens + snp only accounted for 49.2% of vote (even though they won most seats)

And even if that result was reversed it is too close to call, should not be another ref until the YES vote can consistently show >60% support.
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al_yrpal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by al_yrpal »

Perhaps they need a referendum on whether there should be an Independence referendum? :wink: like much politics, split down the middle.

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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Pebble wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:21am 50.8% of the constituency vote went to unionist supporting parties
43.6% of the vote went to Tories in 2019 GE and that’s a mandate to do whatever you want.
Nicola has no mandate for indyref2
the greens + snp only accounted for 49.2% of vote (even though they won most seats)
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Stevek76
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Stevek76 »

The concept of mandate tends to be flexible to the benefit of whoever's arguing the point that the time :)

From a slightly more detached view, and looking at the regional vote (likely a better indicator as not distorted by fptp, but still distorted by trying to judge a single issue from a multi issue election) I do wonder about the wisdom of pursuing a further vote at this point (other than as leverage against westminster)

Even if they do shade it, as brexit showed, a slim simple majority is a recipe for lasting divisions, arguments and discontent for years. The only slight advantage for scottish independence is that the age dynamic is broadly flipped.

That all said, I'd probably vote for it if I lived in scotland...
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Oldjohnw
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Oldjohnw »

Pebble wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:21am 50.8% of the constituency vote went to unionist supporting parties - so Nicola has no mandate for indyref2
the greens + snp only accounted for 49.2% of vote (even though they won most seats)

And even if that result was reversed it is too close to call, should not be another ref until the YES vote can consistently show >60% support.

Pity that logic didn’t prevail in Westminster. We wouldn’t have left the EU.
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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Pebble wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:21am 50.8% of the constituency vote went to unionist supporting parties
Worth remembering that is thanks to a PR system.
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KTHSullivan
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by KTHSullivan »

For arguments sake let us say that Scotland does eventually becomes an independent state.

In my naivety with regards to the Scottish economy as a possible stand alone system, what do they actually have by way of industry to provide for what would become a separate country.

The oil industry based in Aberdeen is effectively coming to an end, there is of course tourism, commercial fishing, whisky, forestry none of which seem, to my eyes at least to be a basis for economic progression.

I appreciate that once a separate entity, tax laws etc could be revamped to attract foreign investment but obviously that would take a certain amount of time.

Am I missing something here?
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mikeymo
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by mikeymo »

KTHSullivan wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:43pm For arguments sake let us say that Scotland does eventually becomes an independent state.

In my naivety with regards to the Scottish economy as a possible stand alone system, what do they actually have by way of industry to provide for what would become a separate country.

The oil industry based in Aberdeen is effectively coming to an end, there is of course tourism, commercial fishing, whisky, forestry none of which seem, to my eyes at least to be a basis for economic progression.

I appreciate that once a separate entity, tax laws etc could be revamped to attract foreign investment but obviously that would take a certain amount of time.

Am I missing something here?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland
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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

KTHSullivan wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:43pm Am I missing something here?
I think the biggest resource you’ve missed out of your list is the potential for renewable energy. A coastline double that of England and enough rain and water to reliably fuel any hydro.
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KTHSullivan
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by KTHSullivan »

Thanks for the replies; obviously renewables will play a major role in the potentially revamped economy should Scotland become an independent state, there are nevertheless limitations on hydro power to a certain extent, although wind/wave/tidal etc is effectively limitless. We do however have to consider that Scotland would need to have her own defence force, fund some sort of health service. Health costs Scotland roughly 12 billion at the present time; that alone is quite a chunk of the 250 billion GDP at present. (thanks for the link mikeymo). Education etc etc.

Not being political here, I don't really care if Scotland becomes an independent state or not (As long as the rest of the remaining UK is not required to support her if she is).
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Vorpal »

Paulatic wrote: 10 May 2021, 9:01am
KTHSullivan wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:43pm Am I missing something here?
I think the biggest resource you’ve missed out of your list is the potential for renewable energy. A coastline double that of England and enough rain and water to reliably fuel any hydro.
And offshore wind https://www.offshorewindscotland.org.uk/
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Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

And local availability of renewable sources can be used to catalyse research and development and manufacture and consultancy.

Upmarket foods can be very profitable. Especially if you remove trade barriers with the consumers.

Human skills/ services will be a major part of the economy of any small advanced country. Trade barriers important as above.

Scotland already has excellent high education, and could have more. Freedom of appropriate movement crucial.

Tourism and recreation, especially as passenger flights become less acceptable.

Jonathan

PS:

Sustainable Growth Commission
https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot

Just Transition Commission
https://www.gov.scot/groups/just-transition-commission/
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