Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

The loss of fiscal transfers is a problem.

The future sources of wealth creation are important to any country.

But neither looks like a showstopper for independence, and especially not for independence with EU Membership.

Jonathan
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
I live in Devon it's not a bad place to live apart from it doesn't got a lot of industry.
That's why a lot of people retire here and house prices are shooting through the roof.
I'm not sure it would be a very attractive place if I started putting windfarms and solar farms all over Dartmoor and wave devices et cetera with gigantic windmills along the coast.
Maybe the Scottish people think It's well worth industry despite the effect it will have on the nature and the view?
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by rualexander »

KTHSullivan wrote: 9 May 2021, 11:43pm .....
Am I missing something here?
Yes.
What sort of industry are you looking for?
If you mean manufacturing, then 180,000 people in Scotland work in manufacturing and it accounts for half of Scotland's international exports.
But other than the industries you have already mentioned, there is also the life sciences industry and the financial services industry to name two.
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

Interesting the result Salmond achieved. Though I don't have the knowledge to hypothesise as to the reasons of his (and his party's) results.

I appreciate that going into a election candidates have to portray massive confidence and can't do "If we manage not to lose our deposits we'll be happy" but I do wonder if his talk of providing a "super-majority" and then the outcome were "a bit far apart".

Is his time in Scottish politics over?

Ian
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Psamathe wrote: 10 May 2021, 5:34pm
Is his time in Scottish politics over?

Ian
I fear he will become another Nigel Farage.
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Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

It's interesting to hear about all the new industry, research and development renewables night trigger. Will they be in place early enough in the new, independent nation or take a long time to feed through to the economy?

Financial services are big, iirc 75% of Scottish economy is service economy in one shape or form. Will the financial sector remain as significant? There were signs brexit was causing London bases for large, international banks to shrink in favour of European Union based branches. Is there not a fear that might happen after or even before Scottish independence? Afterall AIUI it was promoted edition the United Kingdom at one time to have financial sector develop outside London in Scotland and indeed in the larger Northern cities. I am curious to hear whether contraction of the Scottish financial sector could be a result of independence. I've not got a clue and not read it heard anything about it yet.
KTHSullivan
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by KTHSullivan »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 10 May 2021, 12:05pm Hi,
I live in Devon it's not a bad place to live apart from it doesn't got a lot of industry.
That's why a lot of people retire here and house prices are shooting through the roof.
I'm not sure it would be a very attractive place if I started putting windfarms and solar farms all over Dartmoor and wave devices et cetera with gigantic windmills along the coast.
Maybe the Scottish people think It's well worth industry despite the effect it will have on the nature and the view?
We have substantial wind farm developments off the Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire coast. Thankfully most of it is effectively over the horizon. The sea in this area is comparatively shallow, ( any installation depth of over about 40m has to be floating) that and the underlying geology lends itself to the installation of large turbine sets. I believe the largest being some 13MW although the majority are around 6MW. The maximum "sea state" has a bearing on what can be installed. Even in the relatively calm Southern North sea (Dogger, German Bight, Humber, Thames) area during the winter months many of the maintenance crews are unable to put to sea necessitating shutdowns. Obviously the further North the wilder the winter storms. I tend to agree that a series of 850 ft high 13MW turbines delineating the west coast of Scotland would tend to distract one from the view.
Just remember, when you’re over the hill, you begin to pick up speed. :lol:
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

16500 km of coast line. If only half let’s say 9000km had a mill every Km then at 6Mw that would be 27 million homes. At 13 Mw that would be over 54 million homes.
A population of over 5 million just how many homes do you think we have?
Or maybe I should ask how much are you guys looking to import if you won’t tolerate any mills?
I’d of thought wave power is going to be the future anyway. No doubt that would have its detractors too.
Cast your minds back to a journey along the A1 back in the sixties counting all of power stations and associated heaps of fossil fuels. I believe looking out to sea and catching the glimmer of blades in the sunlight far easier on the eye.
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Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

I once read the report of an elegant study that showed that wind turbines were much more acceptable if the local residents believed that there was local benefit.

And of course for Devon they might reduce the need for fiscal transfers from London and the South East.

Jonathan
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
We do have wind turbines in Devon.
On land, I don't actually find them ugly at all, I think I much prefer them actually to solar panels that simply look ghastly.
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by sukuinage »

Haven't read through all the posts on here but I've got a couple of questions for those who are in favour of Scottish independence:

- How do you reconcile independence with EU membership? The EU wants to reduce independence of the nation state and the end result will be less autonomy rather than more. Do you somehow think that the EU will have more interest in Scotland's problems than Westminster?
- Which currency will your debt be denominated in? Euro? English Pound? Some new currency? How do you imagine that this will be financed? This is the biggest single issue for Scotland which the SNP are fudging.
- Why would the SNP hold a referendum when it would, effectively, remove the whole raison d'etre of the party? They would no longer be able to play silly political games with Westminster and would have to actually try and run the country in the face of mounting criticism from internal political opponents. They're politicians, they're not interested in the likes of you lot, just power!
I'm pretty sure that there won't be Indyref2 any time soon purely because of my last point - we can see in a couple of years if I'm correct :)
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

I'm not particularly in favour but I'm very interested in the issue.
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am- How do you reconcile independence with EU membership? The EU wants to reduce independence of the nation state and the end result will be less autonomy rather than more. Do you somehow think that the EU will have more interest in Scotland's problems than Westminster?
The preceding discussion gives an itemised list of areas where an independent Scotland in the EU would have greater autonomy than Scotland has in the UK at the moment. This is simply factual
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am- Which currency will your debt be denominated in? Euro? English Pound? Some new currency? How do you imagine that this will be financed? This is the biggest single issue for Scotland which the SNP are fudging.
The SNP's policy on currency is in the public domain. It's phased.

“Scotland will continue to use the pound at the point of independence, establishing an independent Scottish currency as soon as practicable through a careful, managed and responsible transition when an independent Scottish parliament chooses to do so.”

Of course there will also be an issue with joining the Euro.

As with the previous referendum there would be more detail in the manifesto.

And no-one knows how these intentions will survive contact with the complex real world.
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15amWhy would the SNP hold a referendum when it would, effectively, remove the whole raison d'etre of the party? They would no longer be able to play silly political games with Westminster and would have to actually try and run the country in the face of mounting criticism from internal political opponents. They're politicians, they're not interested in the likes of you lot, just power!
Apart from independence the SNP has some social democratic policies that are quite popular. And that's after being in power for some time. Many of them are rather popular in the rest of the UK as well.

And every area of Scotland voted to Remain in the EU. In the recent elections only two parties offered a route to Membership.

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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am Haven't read through all the posts on here
Becoming a habit
5th March >
I've not read all of the thread so don't know if this has been posted but there's an interesting website:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/
Hope you’re aware that blogger, from Bath I believe, has stopped blogging since the sentencing of Craig Murray.
NATURAL ANKLING wrote:
Hi,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Sc ... referendum
"An exit poll revealed that retention of the pound sterling was the deciding factor for those who voted No, while "disaffection with Westminster politics" was the deciding factor for those who voted Yes.[3]"

@sukuinage said
Maybe that'll change following the Salmond court case, the Fabiano enquiry, the lack of transparency in the SNP's candidate selections and the "Hate Crime" bill?jj
I understand you must have been very disappointed at the recent election.
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am They're politicians, they're not interested in the likes of you lot, just power!
If that is the case thankfully they show a better job, than the incumbents of WM of covering it up.
I don’t know where you live but I live in a Tory represented area of Scotland. I’ve given up trying to converse with my Tory Msp it’s always been fruitless and always standard cut n paste replies.
Thankfully the list Msp’s for my area appear to get jobs done.
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by sukuinage »

Jdsk wrote: 20 May 2021, 12:26pm I'm not particularly in favour but I'm very interested in the issue.
I'm also very interested. I think that the union is better for both countries but don't have a problem with independence, I am, however, very sceptical as to the capabilities of the current crop of Scottish politicians. I'm half English, half Scottish and live in Germany so not a lot of skin in the game. :D
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am- How do you reconcile independence with EU membership? The EU wants to reduce independence of the nation state and the end result will be less autonomy rather than more. Do you somehow think that the EU will have more interest in Scotland's problems than Westminster?
Jdsk wrote: 20 May 2021, 12:26pmThe preceding discussion gives an itemised list of areas where an independent Scotland in the EU would have greater autonomy than Scotland has in the UK at the moment. This is simply factual
A link would be useful to save wading through the last 50 odd pages but wouldn't, in any case, answer my question which was reconciling independence with EU membership i.e. trading one lot of masters for another. Why this link with the EU and "Brexit"? Why not set up as a proper, independent country and have real independence? The discussion as to whether Scotland's relative autonomy under Westminster or as it would be as an EU country at the moment has little relevance to its autonomy in the future. The EU plan to reduce the power of the nation state so a comparison of the current situation isn't particularly helpful.
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15am- Which currency will your debt be denominated in? Euro? English Pound? Some new currency? How do you imagine that this will be financed? This is the biggest single issue for Scotland which the SNP are fudging.
Jdsk wrote: 20 May 2021, 12:26pmThe SNP's policy on currency is in the public domain. It's phased.

“Scotland will continue to use the pound at the point of independence, establishing an independent Scottish currency as soon as practicable through a careful, managed and responsible transition when an independent Scottish parliament chooses to do so.”

Of course there will also be an issue with joining the Euro.

As with the previous referendum there would be more detail in the manifesto.

And no-one knows how these intentions will survive contact with the complex real world.
Rem acu tetigisti, as the Romans would have said. All the rest is waffle (I mean from the politicians, not you)
sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15amWhy would the SNP hold a referendum when it would, effectively, remove the whole raison d'etre of the party? They would no longer be able to play silly political games with Westminster and would have to actually try and run the country in the face of mounting criticism from internal political opponents. They're politicians, they're not interested in the likes of you lot, just power!
Jdsk wrote: 20 May 2021, 12:26pmApart from independence the SNP has some social democratic policies that are quite popular. And that's after being in power for some time. Many of them are rather popular in the rest of the UK as well.
The problem is that the politics of "Free Stuff" has to be paid for from somewhere and currently, via the Barnett Formular, this is from the English taxpayer. If the money has to be found internally then something has to give and I doubt that the EU will be rushing to send money to Scotland when their coffers are haemorrhaging money to Greece, Spain, Italy etc. I think the SNP realise that.
I'm not convinced that the SNP's "popularity" is anything to do with its policies anymore than that of the Torys in England. I think the lack of a credible opposition is the defining factor
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

sukuinage wrote: 20 May 2021, 10:15amA link would be useful to save wading through the last 50 odd pages but wouldn't, in any case, answer my question which was reconciling independence with EU membership i.e. trading one lot of masters for another. Why this link with the EU and "Brexit"? Why not set up as a proper, independent country and have real independence? The discussion as to whether Scotland's relative autonomy under Westminster or as it would be as an EU country at the moment has little relevance to its autonomy in the future. The EU plan to reduce the power of the nation state so a comparison of the current situation isn't particularly helpful.
This is about your views of the EU, with which I disagree. But with independence the people of Scotland might get a chance to have their own views implemented.

The future power of the EU over an independent Scotland would be much less than the future power of the UK Government over Scotland in the UK... unless there's some big change of policy that none of us have heard about.

Jonathan
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